Since June 1 (last 8 starts) Jose Fernandez has pitched 52.1 innings in which he has given up 6 earned runs, which is an 1.03 ERA, and has given up 29 hits while walking 19 which equates to 0.91 WH/IP ratio. In those last 8 starts he's struck out 51, which is pretty much one an inning.
Miami has gone 6 and 2 those last 8 times Fernandez started. St. Louis nipped him 3-2, and Arizona beat him 3-1. That's it.
The game he threw on July 1 against San Diego was a masterpiece. 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 10 strike outs.
Overall, the kid is 5 and 5 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WH/IP ratio (which translates into a .276 OBA against, which is outstanding)
103 K's in a 104 innings, well you do the math.
The kid has been flying under the radar all season, has electric stuff, and it looks like Vegas finally caught on.
I check out the early line movements.
Line opens up at Rockies (at home) -140, bam, shoots right up to Rockies -148 at 5Dimes, -152 at 3 in the morning, -156 an hour ago.
Rocks are getting hammered early, 16 cents is serious movement, and I know why.
Numbers geeks, like myself who do a little homework realize -140 is a soft number (or they think they do)
Thing is, as much as I love Jose Fernandez, and I do, he's a different animal away from Florida.
He wins as a slight fave, or a slight dog, but those 2 games I mentioned he lost he was +150 in the Card loss, and +135 in the Snake loss, both on the road. Pretty much the same situation here. (However he did beat the Mets in NYC as a +195 dog)
Marlins are 1-4 when the kid starts on the road as a +110 to +150 dog.
However the Marlins have been perfect against the NL West in their last four.
Fernandez is 2 and 5 on the road, a beast at home, but he's demonstated in his last two road starts he can pitch very well on the road.
He only yielded three runs on four hits against that Cardinal line up in St. Louis. He gave up 2 earned on 4 hits in 7.1 innings on the road in Phoenix in that loss.
He does walk about 3 a game, had a not very good April, better May, and since June 1 been pitching like a Cy Young candidate.
Has never faced the Rocks, so there is no history there, and I know full well Car-Go and Tulo, and Cuddyer are not easy outs, but I do subscribe the old school theory that good pitching will get good hitting out. Kid has that kind of stuff.
Chacin is having a nice season 9-4 3.50 ERA respectable 1.26 WH/IP, by no means a K artist. Pitched well in his last four out of five home games.
Not worthy of being a 60 cent favorite over Fernandez though.
I am taking a small shot on Fernandez, nothing big, because this is the Fish I am backing, but the better starter is on the Marlins, and at around +150 or so (let's see what this line does this afternoon before I send in my money) I like those odds.
This is not a play for the faint of heart, you can fade, or pass, it's all good.
Remember this fellas, the only guarantee in baseball is all teams will win at least 60 games and lose 60 games a season, if you know what I mean?
Miami has gone 6 and 2 those last 8 times Fernandez started. St. Louis nipped him 3-2, and Arizona beat him 3-1. That's it.
The game he threw on July 1 against San Diego was a masterpiece. 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 10 strike outs.
Overall, the kid is 5 and 5 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WH/IP ratio (which translates into a .276 OBA against, which is outstanding)
103 K's in a 104 innings, well you do the math.
The kid has been flying under the radar all season, has electric stuff, and it looks like Vegas finally caught on.
I check out the early line movements.
Line opens up at Rockies (at home) -140, bam, shoots right up to Rockies -148 at 5Dimes, -152 at 3 in the morning, -156 an hour ago.
Rocks are getting hammered early, 16 cents is serious movement, and I know why.
Numbers geeks, like myself who do a little homework realize -140 is a soft number (or they think they do)
Thing is, as much as I love Jose Fernandez, and I do, he's a different animal away from Florida.
He wins as a slight fave, or a slight dog, but those 2 games I mentioned he lost he was +150 in the Card loss, and +135 in the Snake loss, both on the road. Pretty much the same situation here. (However he did beat the Mets in NYC as a +195 dog)
Marlins are 1-4 when the kid starts on the road as a +110 to +150 dog.
However the Marlins have been perfect against the NL West in their last four.
Fernandez is 2 and 5 on the road, a beast at home, but he's demonstated in his last two road starts he can pitch very well on the road.
He only yielded three runs on four hits against that Cardinal line up in St. Louis. He gave up 2 earned on 4 hits in 7.1 innings on the road in Phoenix in that loss.
He does walk about 3 a game, had a not very good April, better May, and since June 1 been pitching like a Cy Young candidate.
Has never faced the Rocks, so there is no history there, and I know full well Car-Go and Tulo, and Cuddyer are not easy outs, but I do subscribe the old school theory that good pitching will get good hitting out. Kid has that kind of stuff.
Chacin is having a nice season 9-4 3.50 ERA respectable 1.26 WH/IP, by no means a K artist. Pitched well in his last four out of five home games.
Not worthy of being a 60 cent favorite over Fernandez though.
I am taking a small shot on Fernandez, nothing big, because this is the Fish I am backing, but the better starter is on the Marlins, and at around +150 or so (let's see what this line does this afternoon before I send in my money) I like those odds.
This is not a play for the faint of heart, you can fade, or pass, it's all good.
Remember this fellas, the only guarantee in baseball is all teams will win at least 60 games and lose 60 games a season, if you know what I mean?
s we tied it 
Got a nice little parlay Marlins/Mets ...Mets may have enough runs for a pig pen save