Reds at even money 7/22

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  • ChalkyDog
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-02-11
    • 9598

    #1
    Reds at even money 7/22
    Should have got on this earlier. It being an obvious play doesn't worry me too much.

    It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".

    But there are other things about this game that make it a play regardless of Timmah's no-no.

    Arroyo hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs since late may.
    Arroyo is 2-1 in his last 3.
    Arroyo is 8-0 after the reds lost the previous time out
    Reds are 6-1 vs. NL West in last 7 games with Arroyo on the mound.
    Reds are 4-1 vs Giants over last 5 games in San Fran .

    Timmah is 0-2 with an ERA nearing 7 vs the reds.
    Giants 0-6 with Timmah on the mound vs a team above .500 over those 6 games.
    Giants are 2-10 in their last 12 vs. NL Central opponents.

    One of the main reasons I am feeling comfortable besides the fact that Arroyo should be better than Lincecum, is the fact that the Reds bullpen is one of the better iunits n the league. In fact, their bullpen is posting a sub 1.00 ERA over their last 16 games, which consists of ~48 innings pitched. Meaning, a loss due to some fukktard out of the pen is less likely.

    Point being, we got a classic fade spot at + or EV money, when the team being backed is superior than the team favored.

    I am 5 out of my last 6 posted plays, Hoping to go 6 for 7.

    Fade or Tail, Doesn't matter to me.

  • JMobile
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 08-21-10
    • 19074

    #2
    I was feeling the same way today
    Comment
    • Smoke
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-09-09
      • 48111

      #3
      I was feeling the same way today
      Comment
      • Big Bear
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 11-01-11
        • 43253

        #4
        Originally posted by Smoke
        I was feeling the same way today
        me too
        Comment
        • joco
          SBR MVP
          • 04-24-11
          • 3242

          #5
          today same way i was feeling
          Comment
          • Big Bear
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-01-11
            • 43253

            #6
            Reds seem like a really good play...

            however Lincecum may have found something...maybe some good chronic...

            The Giants looked pretty solid over the weekend vs D-Backs

            Posey been hitting good
            Comment
            • PickoMoff
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-08-13
              • 638

              #7
              Originally posted by ChalkyDog
              It's the classic "fade the guy coming off of a no-hitter".
              This was my main reason for my bet, plus Timmy sucks this year! All those other stats are even more of a blessing!

              BOL!
              Comment
              • PickoMoff
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-08-13
                • 638

                #8
                Originally posted by Big Bear
                Reds seem like a really good play...

                however Lincecum may have found something...maybe some good chronic...

                The Giants looked pretty solid over the weekend vs D-Backs

                Posey been hitting good
                "Good Chronic"
                Comment
                • Big Bear
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-01-11
                  • 43253

                  #9
                  A little reverse line movement going on for some reason

                  reds went from +109 to +113 despite majority of money coming in on Reds....

                  books probably just trying to mind fukk us
                  Comment
                  • jjgold
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-20-05
                    • 388179

                    #10
                    Lincy rarely pitches two good games in a row

                    Although maybe he found his zone and then Cincy in trouble
                    Comment
                    • easyliving
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-25-12
                      • 8876

                      #11
                      line moving against you, Lincecum had 8 days rest no bet for me here.
                      Comment
                      • El Nino
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 05-03-12
                        • 18426

                        #12
                        Initial lean on the Reds, Would rather fade Lincecum on the road though. His home #'s have been good.
                        Comment
                        • jjgold
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 07-20-05
                          • 388179

                          #13
                          I am scared of game
                          8 days rest is a lot
                          When he has good stuff game over
                          Comment
                          • BIGDAY
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 02-17-10
                            • 48245

                            #14
                            I think Arroyo is something like 1-6 his last 7 starts of a opening road series.
                            Probably more along that the bats aren't banging but I'm staying away.

                            GL pal
                            Comment
                            • HardCore
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-05-12
                              • 3615

                              #15
                              why does sbr let these idiots post these dumb ass post like wtf^^^^^^^
                              Comment
                              • raydog
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 11-07-07
                                • 6984

                                #16
                                Originally posted by HardCore
                                why does sbr let these idiots post these dumb ass post like wtf^^^^^^^
                                whats dumb about it?
                                Comment
                                • Killer_Demo
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 06-15-08
                                  • 8409

                                  #17
                                  No play for me....Timmy vs Arroyo will be interesting
                                  Comment
                                  • HardCore
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-05-12
                                    • 3615

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by raydog
                                    whats dumb about it?
                                    no not you the idiot that posts the "i work for a major bookmaker and i have the winner of the game and its fix BS email me" lol sbr took the post down. good shit sbr
                                    Comment
                                    • Down_Goes Bookie
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 06-18-13
                                      • 422

                                      #19
                                      Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

                                      Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.
                                      Comment
                                      • ses_d
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 04-06-12
                                        • 1248

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Down_Goes Bookie
                                        Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

                                        Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.
                                        Lol I read that stat on the previews too but Arroyo beat SF 8-1 last season at AT&T.

                                        Weird huh....
                                        Comment
                                        • daneault23
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-08-09
                                          • 3871

                                          #21
                                          Maybe over? Timmay has very rarely pitched 2 consecutive good games this season and Arroyo has struggled at AT&T Park.
                                          Comment
                                          • Big Bear
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 11-01-11
                                            • 43253

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Down_Goes Bookie
                                            Arroyo is 0-4 at AT&T park. This year his away ERA is nearly double his home ERA. Night ERA nearly double his day ERA. Not to mention Arroyo has a habit of following up a strong game (like his 3 H in 7 IP last outing @ Atlanta) with a stinker.

                                            Lincecum may very well have figured something out. I don't see a lot to like here re Arroyo and leaning SF.
                                            i have confidence in Lincecum to pitch something like 4 runs or less in 6-7 innings pitched....

                                            but as always with the Giants i don't have confidence in them to score 4 runs....
                                            Comment
                                            • ses_d
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-06-12
                                              • 1248

                                              #23
                                              By the way...I know this Giants team well. Bet on Bailey when he had his no no and Lincecum when he had his.

                                              On Arroyo tonight.
                                              Comment
                                              • ses_d
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 04-06-12
                                                • 1248

                                                #24
                                                You guys think just because Lincecum had one good game out of 15 he's back on track?

                                                As a Giants fan I sure hope so, but my mind along with reviewing stats is telling me otherwise.

                                                Go look at Lincecums record on Espn and tell me you want to back him tonight.

                                                Btw, I know a extra stat that no one on this forum has seem to pick up...I'll let ya'll know after the Reds win tonight.
                                                Comment
                                                • ses_d
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-06-12
                                                  • 1248

                                                  #25
                                                  Arroyo hasn't really struggled at ATT...stop reading the previews and dig deeper.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • joco
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-24-11
                                                    • 3242

                                                    #26
                                                    arroyo has faced giants 4 times since beginning of 2012 season...the reds are 3-1 in those games...arroyo gave up 4 total ER in those 4 games combined...2 of those were at AT&T park...reds won one of those 2 away games (which was in the postseason) 9-0...the other they lost 4-3...doesnt sound like arroyo is that terrible against the giants home or away...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Down_Goes Bookie
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 06-18-13
                                                      • 422

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by ses_d
                                                      Lol I read that stat on the previews too but Arroyo beat SF 8-1 last season at AT&T.

                                                      Weird huh....
                                                      Ha, I was looking at career splits, but that data covered only regular season games. I haven't gotten around to reading any previews yet.

                                                      Turns out Arroyo did win a postseason game last yeat at AT&T, 9-0 -- 1 H in 7 IP. Thanks for the catch ...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • easyliving
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 06-25-12
                                                        • 8876

                                                        #28
                                                        just pulled the trigger on Lincecum and the Giants. too many stats against reds and arroyo. Reds have been very average on the road all season.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ChalkyDog
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 10-02-11
                                                          • 9598

                                                          #29
                                                          Not to be a dick, but the amount of posts in this thread + the majority agreeing with me, now worries me.

                                                          GL to Reds backers. Giant backers can kick rocks.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ses_d
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 04-06-12
                                                            • 1248

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                                                            Not to be a dick, but the amount of posts in this thread + the majority agreeing with me, now worries me.

                                                            GL to Reds backers. Giant backers can kick rocks.
                                                            What do you mean. The majority seems to be on SF. Because Reds aren't good on the road, Arroyo hasn't had good numbers, etc.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Big Bear
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 11-01-11
                                                              • 43253

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                              A little reverse line movement going on for some reason

                                                              reds went from +109 to +113 despite majority of money coming in on Reds....

                                                              books probably just trying to mind fukk us
                                                              they mind fukked me again!


                                                              how did i pass on the Reds here?? 11-0
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Smoke
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-09-09
                                                                • 48111

                                                                #32
                                                                Bear dont follow the RLM in baseball it will kill you
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Big Bear
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 11-01-11
                                                                  • 43253

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Smoke
                                                                  Bear dont follow the RLM in baseball it will kill you
                                                                  i know... it dont mean shit in baseball. I didnt bet Giants or anything... i just didnt bet and it pisses me off bc Reds won 11-0
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Bluedragon
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-30-10
                                                                    • 3484

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I was looking at this play too.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • rcene
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-28-12
                                                                      • 3036

                                                                      #35
                                                                      This year's Giants do not resemble a defending champion. Amazing how the starting pitching has collapsed
                                                                      Comment
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