Even at 1:1 (even money) there is a ton of value in this bet

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65692

    #1
    Even at 1:1 (even money) there is a ton of value in this bet
    St. Louis Cardinal to win the NL Central 1:1

    This edition of the Cardinals is better than any of the Pujols Cardinals.
    One of the most well balanced teams I have seen in the last 25 years.

    Fact: runs scored +127 more than runs against.
    No other team can sniff that. Second closest are the Braves at +78
    That is just an astouding stat.

    Cardinals are third in the majors in hitting, runs scored, and OBA.
    Cardinals have the best hitting catcher in the game that also happens to be also the best defensive catcher in the game.

    Cardinals first half of the lineup all hit .300+
    Cardinals are so diversified, Molina leads the team in average, Beltran leads the team in homers, but doesn't lead the team in RBI's, Craig does, but Carpenter leads the team in runs scored.

    Cardinal lineup is so stacked, John Jay, who can slap the ball around well, hits eigth.

    Cards can go deep with Holliday, Beltran and Craig, they can play hit and run with Jay and Carp, the only thing they don't do is steal bases, because they don't have to. Carpenter has a .400 OBA leading off, Molina and Craig are above .375.

    Their front four starters are as good as any front four starters in the majors, the first three have over 100 K's so far, Wainwright belongs in the same sentence with Harvey and Kershaw, their bullpen bridge of Choate-Rosental-Mujica is rock solid, and their long man, spot starter Joe Kelly is beyond dependable.

    This team has no holes, they have 13 games left with Pitt, who is a nice feel good story this year, but don't have the horses to keep pace with this Red-Bird unit, and will be shocked if the Bucco's win 6 out of those 13 left.
    The Pirates just don't match up well against them, and the Reds just have too much work to do to get even.

    I am seriously thinking about dropping a nickle, and that is a big play for me on the Cards to win the NL Central
    at even money.
  • BIGDAY
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 02-17-10
    • 48245

    #2
    Can't argue with ya.
    GL
    Comment
    • Big Bear
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-01-11
      • 43253

      #3
      well... i sure as hell am not worried about the Pirates...

      but those pesky Reds could present some trouble. Although Cards have a 5 game lead on them.

      Its looks good
      Comment
      • daddypoker23
        SBR High Roller
        • 11-13-12
        • 169

        #4
        I WIsh my book gave me those odds. I would pound the shit out of it however my book has cardinals 2-1 fav.. To high of a price to pay.
        Comment
        • PaperTrail07
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-29-08
          • 20423

          #5
          Not a bad bet at all...Reds ok with a wildcard...
          Comment
          • easyliving
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 06-25-12
            • 8876

            #6
            getting -150 @5dimes. Wish someone would offer even money. I would hammer it
            Comment
            • PickoMoff
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 07-08-13
              • 638

              #7
              Plus Chris Carpenter is coming back and if he's anything like his old self, that's a HUGE help and boost!
              Comment
              • jjgold
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 07-20-05
                • 388179

                #8
                Nashy always finds good value, kid must be searching day and night. I hate futures only because do not like the money tied up.
                Comment
                • Big Bear
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-01-11
                  • 43253

                  #9
                  Originally posted by easyliving
                  getting -150 @5dimes. Wish someone would offer even money. I would hammer it
                  even if they had it at +100 at 5dimes im sure they would set the limit at $500 or less like they do the world series future. super lame
                  Comment
                  • Slimpickens
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-28-12
                    • 2030

                    #10
                    Is this just a hypothetical if they were even money then there would be value? Im seeing them in the 1/2 range.
                    Comment
                    • MickeyMan
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-20-09
                      • 5091

                      #11
                      Totally agree but where +100??
                      Comment
                      • Foxx
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-25-11
                        • 5832

                        #12
                        Maybe it was even money earlier today and Mr. Nash's endorsement crashed the market. I am seeing -173 at Pinny.
                        Comment
                        • PaperTrail07
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-29-08
                          • 20423

                          #13
                          Most of the time....when money is sitting....your already losing $$.....smart .....Vegas Love love loves people betting futures....like a free season long fuckkn loan
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          Nashy always finds good value, kid must be searching day and night. I hate futures only because do not like the money tied up.
                          Comment
                          • joco
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-24-11
                            • 3242

                            #14
                            my book has -200...
                            Comment
                            • Chi_archie
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 07-22-08
                              • 63172

                              #15
                              if they don't win it, it is a major upset.

                              as long as they stay healthy, and Molina doesn't get caught using. (he should still regress quite a bit 2nd half though)
                              Comment
                              • Chi_archie
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-22-08
                                • 63172

                                #16
                                you never know how the trading is gonna go over the next 2 weeks though either

                                that is a bit of a wild card you have to temper your excitement with sometimes along with injury concerns.
                                Comment
                                • PaperTrail07
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 08-29-08
                                  • 20423

                                  #17
                                  I wouldnt go with MAJOR upset.....but yeah they should get it done....Cueto will be back..Hanigan will be back..so the reds def have a chance...Stl the more solid all around team thoughQUOTE=Chi_archie;19178996]if they don't win it, it is a major upset.

                                  as long as they stay healthy, and Molina doesn't get caught using. (he should still regress quite a bit 2nd half though)[/QUOTE]
                                  Comment
                                  • Chi_archie
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 07-22-08
                                    • 63172

                                    #18
                                    above average surprise if they don't win it?

                                    I do think their hitting has to regress, almost the entire lineup is hitting over their heads, except Kozma and Holliday maybe
                                    Comment
                                    • Smoke
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-09-09
                                      • 48111

                                      #19
                                      Not worth it. Its the Pirates year
                                      Comment
                                      • BuddyBear
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-10-05
                                        • 7233

                                        #20
                                        Agree. STL run differential is out of this world whereas the Pirates have a run differential that is much much smaller. If anything Pitt is overachieving and STL is underachieving record wise. I'd make STL pretty strong favorites to win the NL Central and a very slight favorite to take the NL flag this year over ATL. I think, though, LAD with Kershaw poses some real danger. Best pitcher in baseball by a healthy margin.
                                        Comment
                                        • BennyBigNuts
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-16-12
                                          • 8700

                                          #21
                                          Great post, but you can't find +100 on this anywhere for sure.
                                          Cards will win that division by 7 or 8 games over the Reds. Pirates will struggle to be .500
                                          Comment
                                          • PaperTrail07
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-29-08
                                            • 20423

                                            #22
                                            Everyone is expecting the Pirates to just "fall off" like every year.....I have a feeling this could be different....avoid some injuries and whatnot...they coul be in the hunt...
                                            Originally posted by BennyBigNuts
                                            Great post, but you can't find +100 on this anywhere for sure.
                                            Cards will win that division by 7 or 8 games over the Reds. Pirates will struggle to be .500
                                            Comment
                                            • stevenash
                                              Moderator
                                              • 01-17-11
                                              • 65692

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Slimpickens
                                              Is this just a hypothetical if they were even money then there would be value? Im seeing them in the 1/2 range.
                                              I am seeing a few 100's
                                              Comment
                                              • Chi_archie
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 07-22-08
                                                • 63172

                                                #24
                                                Pirates to finish under .500

                                                id give about +1340 for that prop
                                                Comment
                                                • italianbandit
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-17-11
                                                  • 2622

                                                  #25
                                                  At +100 I would max bet it, my 2 locals have -200.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • cassidysports
                                                    SBR Hustler
                                                    • 04-26-12
                                                    • 57

                                                    #26
                                                    Hey Stevenash, where u seeing it at 1:1?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • stevenash
                                                      Moderator
                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                      • 65692

                                                      #27
                                                      These were the numbers as of Monday befre the ASG

                                                      Cards ev
                                                      Pitt +250
                                                      Cinn +300
                                                      Chi +5000
                                                      NYM +6000
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Chi_archie
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 07-22-08
                                                        • 63172

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by stevenash
                                                        These were the numbers as of Monday befre the ASG

                                                        Cards ev
                                                        Pitt +250
                                                        Cinn +300
                                                        Chi +5000
                                                        NYM +6000

                                                        if the mets win the central this year, I'll pay ya 547,000 and give ya my wife as a slave
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stevenash
                                                          Moderator
                                                          • 01-17-11
                                                          • 65692

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                          if the mets win the central this year, I'll pay ya 547,000 and give ya my wife as a slave
                                                          My bad, I was typing from my notes (I got a shit load of loose notes I haven't entered into my database yet)

                                                          Nashy had a brain fart.
                                                          That should be Brewers obviously.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • yisman
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 09-01-08
                                                            • 75682

                                                            #30
                                                            If anyone will give me even odds, I'll take it.
                                                            [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                                            [/quote]

                                                            [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                                            Comment
                                                            • AlexRokakis
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 07-07-13
                                                              • 21

                                                              #31
                                                              agree. of course its still early and anything an happen. Consider the Reds are where they are without their no. 4 hitter, as planned when they broke spring training, not that I'm a big Ludwick fan. I do think he'll alleviate the 1 useless bat that's found in every line-up I've seen ty.

                                                              The Cards are of course without Motte. You could argue his value is equal or more than Ludwick's. The Pirates....I agree. It's a two horse race and they're both wearing Red. The Pirates fans are penetrating unreal though...

                                                              Edit; I was trying to agree with the first reply by Big Bear, as he wrote;

                                                              "well... i sure as hell am not worried about the Pirates...


                                                              but those pesky Reds could present some trouble. Although Cards have a 5 game lead on them.

                                                              Its looks good"

                                                              very good discussion
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Chi_archie
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-22-08
                                                                • 63172

                                                                #32
                                                                who is gonna get Garza?

                                                                Cards or Rangers?

                                                                if Cards get him, I think they win the WS
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Smoke
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-09-09
                                                                  • 48111

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Great value with the pirates raise the jolly roger. No pujols No pennant
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stevenash
                                                                    Moderator
                                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                                    • 65692

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Smoke
                                                                    Great value with the pirates raise the jolly roger. No pujols No pennant
                                                                    Craig says "we don't need fat Al"
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Chi_archie
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 07-22-08
                                                                      • 63172

                                                                      #35
                                                                      how confident are people that Craig and Carpenter ect will repeat their first half performances through July, August, Sept, Oct?
                                                                      Comment
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