Fade Alert Jeff Locke

[easyliving]

6-1 with a 2.01 ERA. He also benefits from pitching his home games at PNC park. However no way is this as good as his numbers suggest and he is due for some regression. Starting tomorrow with the Seattle Mariners I will start fading him and will likely fade him until the all star break as books are likely to adjust their lines as he likely is a big public bet at this point.With some patience this fade should be profitable.

game 1: Mariners+111

[No coincidences]

Couldn't agree more. I might hammer Seattle tomorrow night; hate Saunders, but his home numbers are nothing to scoff at.

[Guinser]

Bad decision..wrong team/pitcher to fade atm. I wouldn't even bet mariners tomorrow against gomez with the king that offense is super amenic

[El Nino]

Brock loves Saunders at home. Factor that into your models

[Ghenghis Kahn]

out of all the games tomorrow, you pick this game?

[billysink]

The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.

[Big Bear]

The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.

Well said Billy. This guy has great stuff and keeps everything low in the strike zone.

I watched an interview with Locke and he said he learns a lot from AJ Burnett and AJ told him once when he was getting hit hard
"pound down" and Locke said he has stuck with that approach ever since. It's a simple strategy but when you have stuff like Locke they cant hurt you if you keep it low

[easyliving]

line is down to even money glad I took this overnight

[OhMyEli]

The guy benefits from pitching at PNC so you think Safeco is a good place to factor that in?

Why could you not wait for Locke to face a team that can hit the knuckle curve, change up or curveball. The Mariners are terrible against that offspeed stuff. Until you see this guy pitch a few times through you are dead in the water. Fukkin kid throws 6 pitches for strikes.

Regression is a great theory to profitability but regression starts with reason. On its own it is just a thought.

Can you give us some reason why this is the start Locke goes backwards because I don't see it.

Wow we need more posts like this and less by clowns and guys who post every time they sneeze

[Grizzlies918]

I really don't get all the posts about the guy benefiting from pitching at PNC Park. In 8 starts on the road this year, he has an ERA of 1.64, WHIP of 1.07, and hitters are only hitting .182 against him. I think he'll be a nightmare for Seattle batters. There are no stats that show regression.

[easyliving]

pitching again tomorrow against the Phillies. Phillies +151 to continue the fade.

[Big Bear]

lol this guey

[italianbandit]

I really don't get all the posts about the guy benefiting from pitching at PNC Park. In 8 starts on the road this year, he has an ERA of 1.64, WHIP of 1.07, and hitters are only hitting .182 against him. I think he'll be a nightmare for Seattle batters. There are no stats that show regression.

Are you nuts, his xFIP is double his ERA and he averages almost 4 walks per 9 innings.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/

[italianbandit]

Easy you should also look at Phillies +1.5

[19th Hole]

?????????


It appears the Pittsburgh Pirates paid a small price for their ninth straight victory, as a brief bullpen session in the 14th inning from Jeff Locke has them in need of a starter for their opener against Philadelphia.

[Chi_archie]

If Locke doesn't go I think we might see Brandon Cumpton again

I agree that he is due to regress pretty big time according to his FIP and other sabr stats.

he is actually quite a bit better on the road, so you can put that benefitting from home theory away for now.

ERA BAA
home 2.48 .227
Away 1.76 .176

he has alot more SO's away as well, so maybe he pitches to contact more when he is home, knowning Cutch and Marte got that left field notch on lockdown

[Chi_archie]

actually maybe Jeanmar Gomez will be the more likely starter

[Big Bear]

so locke may be scratched ?

[easyliving]

take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.

[Big Bear]

take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.

where are yall seeing this?

[thetrinity]

it looks like locke will start from all ive seen.

there was thought he might have been pushed back but it appears that hes gona go.

[Big Bear]

i want to know where the story came from about Locke being possibly scratched i cant find it anywhere

did yall just make that up to fukk with people ?!!

ive never heard of such non sense

[LT Profits]

take the action before the pitcher changes. Looks like Locke might not go.

That won't benefit anyone in any way, if Locke is scratched, price is revised to the new opening number.

[whtsox13]

i want to know where the story came from about Locke being possibly scratched i cant find it anywhere

did yall just make that up to fukk with people ?!!

ive never heard of such non sense

After an exhaustive thirty second internet search I found it on a little known website for sports information called ESPN? Scroll down to 'game notes'

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=330630123

You sure this is how you want to spend your days, BigBeer?

[LT Profits]

Back on point (and assuming Locke goes), I think tonight is a good spot to fade him, I got Phils +174. Wasn't going to in +150s but couldn't resist at current number.

[mik5058]

Locke scratched. Cumpton is pitching.

[drfunkmaster]

Tue 7/2		901 Philadelphia Phillies J Pettibone - R	<input id="checkboxx" name="S1_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">+151	<input id="checkboxx" name="L1_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="E1_0" type="checkBox">o3½ -115	<input id="checkboxx" name="E3_0" type="checkBox">u3½ -105
7:05PM		902 Pittsburgh Pirates B Cumpton - R	<input id="checkboxx" name="S2_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">-161	<input id="checkboxx" name="L2_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="E2_0" type="checkBox">o4½ -105	<input id="checkboxx" name="E4_0" type="checkBox">u4½ -115

[ThingsFallApart]

Tue 7/2		901 Philadelphia Phillies J Pettibone - R	<input id="checkboxx" name="S1_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">+151	<input id="checkboxx" name="L1_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="E1_0" type="checkBox">o3½ -115	<input id="checkboxx" name="E3_0" type="checkBox">u3½ -105
7:05PM		902 Pittsburgh Pirates B Cumpton - R	<input id="checkboxx" name="S2_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">-161	<input id="checkboxx" name="L2_0" type="checkBox">	<input id="checkboxx" name="E2_0" type="checkBox">o4½ -105	<input id="checkboxx" name="E4_0" type="checkBox">u4½ -115

I've been fooled too many times into taking a shitty team just because one player is out. Phillies below +175 not worth it.

[RavensFan2k3]

I'm still seeing Locke starting...I think this is a terrible spot to fade Locke. It's more like a good spot to fade Pettibone...

[Louisvillekid1]

locke is out,

My wager is now Phills +145 from +171

[RavensFan2k3]

locke is out,

My wager is now Phills +145 from +171

Really? Why? Does Locke being out stop the Pirates from hitting Pettibone, which I plan on the doing?

[Louisvillekid1]

Well the price at +171 was too good to pass up, and It was an Action Bet.

So while I don't like the play as much w/ the change and the price 26 cent drop, I'm letting it Ride.

[Chi_archie]

Well the price at +171 was too good to pass up, and It was an Action Bet.

So while I don't like the play as much w/ the change and the price 26 cent drop, I'm letting it Ride.

You think 26 cents is too steep a drop from a top 5 pitcher in the NL so far to a guy that would never have seen a MLB roster unless 7 guys got hurt?

[Bdolan33]

and of course none of the predicted scenarios happen. locke is throwing a scoreless game, and the pirates havent touched pettibone for 1 run. were wasting our time boys.

[Chi_archie]

Actually Locke has not given up a hit or walk or allowed ANY base runner today.