Why are the blue jays an underdog tonight?

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  • Smoke
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-09-09
    • 48111

    #1
    Why are the blue jays an underdog tonight?
  • Big Bear
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-01-11
    • 43253

    #2
    To attract public money. And it's working.


    Comment
    • Ballerholic
      SBR MVP
      • 01-16-13
      • 2767

      #3
      Originally posted by Big Bear
      To attract public money. And it's working.



      Money is on Tampa
      Comment
      • Big Bear
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 11-01-11
        • 43253

        #4
        Originally posted by Ballerholic
        Money is on Tampa
        yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


        not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

        But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.
        Comment
        • secueritae
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-26-11
          • 397

          #5
          Originally posted by Big Bear
          yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


          not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

          But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.
          Except for Bautista, hitting .467 off him (7-15) with 2 HRs
          Comment
          • Big Bear
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 11-01-11
            • 43253

            #6
            Originally posted by secueritae
            Except for Bautista, hitting .467 off him (7-15) with 2 HRs
            i would probably pitch around him and take my chances with Edwin.
            Comment
            • joco
              SBR MVP
              • 04-24-11
              • 3242

              #7
              Originally posted by Big Bear
              yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


              not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.

              But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.

              my source shows the exact opposite. 45% on bjays 55% on tampa....
              Comment
              • Ballerholic
                SBR MVP
                • 01-16-13
                • 2767

                #8
                I see tampa at 55% at vegasinsider and even tampa as favorites on scores and odds, even though they are 97% there
                Comment
                • King Mayan
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-22-10
                  • 21330

                  #9
                  It's a trap smokey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • Big Bear
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 11-01-11
                    • 43253

                    #10
                    907 TOR +105 -200 8.5 +121 +195 8.5 +100 -180 8 +120 -175 8.5 46% 3% 87%
                    908 TAM -115 +175 -131 -220 -120 +160 -130 +155 54% 97% 13%
                    Comment
                    • Big Bear
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 11-01-11
                      • 43253

                      #11
                      this just changed recently ... money pouring in on tampa as we speak.
                      Comment
                      • ticklz
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 02-29-12
                        • 962

                        #12
                        lolol 11-0 and public taking slumping Tampa...once again i will be on jays Ml and runline until they show me that they are capable of losing a game
                        Comment
                        • Louisvillekid1
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-17-07
                          • 52143

                          #13
                          Tampa -1.5 +163 & parlay it with the PHI/SD u 6.5 -110...

                          All you need tonight
                          Comment
                          • ridims
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-15-10
                            • 3863

                            #14
                            jays opened as dogs a couple days ago at home to the O's and they got the W. I took the +105 and doubled up easily.

                            you guys read into the line to much. pick the team you think wins and dont look back.

                            i wouldnt bet against a team as hot as the jays right now. predicting when they lose is not very smart but go ahead.
                            Comment
                            • Bluedragon
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-30-10
                              • 3484

                              #15
                              Originally posted by ticklz
                              lolol 11-0 and public taking slumping Tampa...once again i will be on jays Ml and runline until they show me that they are capable of losing a game
                              Ticklz, I forgot to mention yesterday I was going to the game, well, didn't forget, just didn't have time, woke up too late. 5-0 now for me, 6-1 for you. Let's continue that trend
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Jays have never hit Hellickson well outside of Batista, he has eight starts against them since 2011 and had never allowed more than three earned runs.
                                Comment
                                • Grizzlies918
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-29-12
                                  • 371

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ridims
                                  jays opened as dogs a couple days ago at home to the O's and they got the W. I took the +105 and doubled up easily.

                                  you guys read into the line to much. pick the team you think wins and dont look back.

                                  i wouldnt bet against a team as hot as the jays right now. predicting when they lose is not very smart but go ahead.

                                  I think Tampa wins, so I picked them.
                                  Comment
                                  • mynameismud
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-13-12
                                    • 5462

                                    #18
                                    12 in a row would be insanely sick.
                                    Comment
                                    • jamt31
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-08-12
                                      • 554

                                      #19
                                      Hellick has done good against the Jays in his career but this 2013 Hellick is far from the Hellick in years past.
                                      Comment
                                      • Gus Fring
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 03-21-13
                                        • 3423

                                        #20
                                        TB easy. Hellboy owns the jays
                                        Comment
                                        • ridims
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-15-10
                                          • 3863

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Grizzlies918
                                          I think Tampa wins, so I picked them.
                                          good luck..

                                          one of us will definately win
                                          Comment
                                          • joco
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 04-24-11
                                            • 3242

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Gus Fring
                                            TB easy. Hellboy owns the jays

                                            the rays lost both hellickson starts against the rays this year...
                                            Comment
                                            • supernelly007
                                              SBR Rookie
                                              • 05-26-13
                                              • 31

                                              #23
                                              ill be on the jays tonight. just think Tampa is one of the teams the jays have to catch up to, Jay are going to be playing lots of divisional rivals games they really have to win to stand a chance. seen Rogers pitch twice has great stuff.... good bowl pen and lastly ride the winning streak .......... lets go bjs +120 good luck tonight.
                                              Comment
                                              • CanuckG
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-23-10
                                                • 21978

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                yep 45% of it. other 55% is on the Jays.


                                                not that it matter that much. its not a national tv game or anything and the money was all over the Reds yesterday and they still won.



                                                But this is a bad spot for Toronto. Not many hitters square up pitches against Helickson.
                                                Those % mean nothing.
                                                Comment
                                                • ticklz
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-29-12
                                                  • 962

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by joco
                                                  the rays lost both hellickson starts against the rays this year...
                                                  interesting Stat. didnt know the Rays played the Rays this yr yet good to know
                                                  Comment
                                                  • joco
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-24-11
                                                    • 3242

                                                    #26
                                                    u know what i meant smartass
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by jamt31
                                                      Hellick has done good against the Jays in his career but this 2013 Hellick is far from the Hellick in years past.
                                                      He was just as good vs. Jays this year, allowed two runs and only four hits in eight innings before bullpen blew the lead.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DEUCED
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-02-10
                                                        • 615

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                        Tampa -1.5 +163 & parlay it with the PHI/SD u 6.5 -110...

                                                        All you need tonight
                                                        Both lose....sorry.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Big Bear
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 11-01-11
                                                          • 43253

                                                          #29
                                                          Deuced are you related to the poster Deuce?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • OhMyEli
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-17-12
                                                            • 1164

                                                            #30
                                                            Let me get this straight, you guys are going against a team with an 11 game winstreak on the back of a pitcher that has a 5.5ERA and a team 5-10 in their last 15 returning home from a road trip?



                                                            This is overanalyzing 101. True on paper Hellickson stacks up well, but if the plays on paper always cashed the books would be empty.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Big Bear
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 11-01-11
                                                              • 43253

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by OhMyEli
                                                              Let me get this straight, you guys are going against a team with an 11 game winstreak on the back of a pitcher that has a 5.5ERA and a team 5-10 in their last 15 returning home from a road trip?



                                                              This is overanalyzing 101. True on paper Hellickson stacks up well, but if the plays on paper always cashed the books would be empty.
                                                              Hell boy has won 3 out of his last 4 starts.

                                                              Hellickson has good stuff. He keeps hitters off balance. He is much better than Freddy Garcia
                                                              Comment
                                                              • You mad bro
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-15-12
                                                                • 16641

                                                                #32
                                                                Game ends in a tie
                                                                Comment
                                                                • billysink
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 03-29-09
                                                                  • 5172

                                                                  #33
                                                                  The difference with Hellickson this year is that he is using a two seamer more and is using both the cutter and the change as out pitches.

                                                                  He is down almost 2 MPH across the board on all five pitches and rarely gets past 100 pitches. I don't think he is very strong and may be a bit sore.

                                                                  Unfortunately the Jays struggle badly against the change and cutter rarely making solid contact. They may keep it going but may have to get into the bullpen here to do it, as mentioned Helly ain't going to go more than 100, maybe 5 or 6 depending on how efficient he is.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • stevenash
                                                                    Moderator
                                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                                    • 66057

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                                    i would probably pitch around him and take my chances with Edwin.
                                                                    Edwin isn't exactly horsecrap against Hellickson, he's 6 for 23 (.261) with a ding dong.

                                                                    Then you have to face Adam Lind, who's having a career year, because of Joey Bats and Edwin in front of him. Lind's across the board numbers this year are rock-solid, .337 10-30, eye popping .402 OBA, and just as important hits Hellickson hard, 5 for 15, (.333) two of the five hits are roped doubles, 3 RBI's, 2 walks, which translates into a .412 OBA v. Hellickson.

                                                                    After that tonight you got Arencebia, who also rakes Hellickson, 5 for 17 (.294) lifetime says so.
                                                                    JP is one of the better hitting catchers in the AL, and has home run pop.

                                                                    By the time you get to the soft spot of the Jay line up, the damage might already be done.

                                                                    This line up should, operative word being should, torch Hellickson tongiht

                                                                    Melky Cabrera LF
                                                                    Jose Bautista RF
                                                                    Edwin Encarnacion DH
                                                                    Adam Lind 1B
                                                                    Colby Rasmus CF
                                                                    J.P. Arencibia C
                                                                    Maicer Izturis 3B
                                                                    Emilio Bonifacio 2B
                                                                    Munenori Kawasaki SS
                                                                    (Esmil Rogers P)



                                                                    Edwin Encarnacion 24 23 6 2 0 1 1 1 2 .261 .292 .478 .770 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Colby Rasmus 21 20 4 2 0 1 2 1 5 .200 .238 .450 .688 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    J.P. Arencibia 18 17 5 1 0 0 1 1 3 .294 .333 .353 .686 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Jose Bautista 18 15 7 1 1 2 3 3 3 .467 .556 1.067 1.622 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Adam Lind 17 15 5 2 0 0 3 2 4 .333 .412 .467 .878 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Maicer Izturis 12 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .333 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Melky Cabrera 8 8 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 .500 .500 .625 1.125 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Rajai Davis 8 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Munenori Kawasaki 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .250 .400 .250 .650 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Josh Thole 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0
                                                                    Total 133 124 35 9 1 4 11 9 24 .282 .331 .468 .799 0 0 0 0 0



                                                                    Tampa Bay has never faced Rogers as a starter.
                                                                    Rogers is having a decent year so far, 3.14 ERA and a 1.21 WH/IP ratio is solid, especially in the big bat division, but take those numbers with a little grain of salt, this is only Rogers 5th start this season, he's relieved in 27 games this year, so he's not a long distance guy, he should give the Jays six good innings.
                                                                    So expect to see Brett Cecil, whose numbers in relief this season are outstanding, and maybe Loup and Delabar, who ain't exactly chopped liver.

                                                                    On paper, and games are played on grass, not paper, I get that, but on paper, the logical play is to ride the Jays again.
                                                                    The 'Jays are due to lose theory' have sunk a lot of bankrolls the past few days, no reason to fade them again tonight.

                                                                    Jays or nothing is the play
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Big Bear
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 11-01-11
                                                                      • 43253

                                                                      #35
                                                                      is this a big play for you nashy ?
                                                                      Comment
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