This series reminds me a lot of the Dallas Heat series 2 years ago when Lebron James cost the team a chance at a nba championship their first year together.
When the Heat formed, I said on this site this team would be a dynasty. People laughed at me when the Heat started off the season at .500 their first 20 games. We now know who won those debates with the Heat making their third nba finals in a row.
The Spurs are a team that thrives on execution. With this being a first nba finals game for the majority of their players, it's tough to assess how they are going to respond. Everyone on the Heat team save for Birdman and Rashard Lewis have been to and won an NBA finals I believe. That's a pretty significant advantage in my book. Miami is the more experienced team here by far.
I expect MIA to win this series in 5 or 6. Popovic will win 1 game by himself based on his adjustments. Carlisle is a very similar coach but lets not forget mia was up by 15 with 5 min to go in game 2 and they blew that lead. This miami team will not do the same.
Leonard is going to start on Lebron James. A strong defender but doesn't have the lateral quickness that Lebron does and imo his strength, which is usually his biggest asset, will not phase James one bit. The Spurs are going to have to trap him whenever possible and force him to be a playmaker, which is naturally what he wants to do. The only way to beat Lebron James is to get inside his head.
Dallas succeeded with playing a ton of zone in 2011 and I expect Pop to employ a similar strategy. Lebron was frustrated with the zone but this time around, his jumper is much improved so you can't rely strictly on zone. If Leonard struggles on James, expect Danny Green to get a crack at him and Leonard to switch over to Wade. Green is a longer defender with quicker hands but he will most definitely struggle to guard James down in the high or low post.
I think we are going to see a big series from Wade. He is clearly hurting but with all the attention Pop is going to put on stopping James, I expect Wade to see a lot of 1 on 1, something he hasn't had for a while. If the Heat go with a larger lineup at times, expect Parker to guard Wade for brief moments, but I doubt that will work out. Parker will most likely have to guard Ray Allen when the Heat go with Wade at the point.
Let's not forget that over 3 nba finals runs (2 rings), Wade's ppg average in the finals is among the best in NBA history. I don't expect him to be averaging no 15 ppg in these finals, hurt or not. Spurs are not big enough down low to bother Wade. With the exception of the two Spurs wing defenders I named, there is no one on this team that can really just pack in the paint and bother Wade and James. Duncan knows better than to leave Bosh all alone.
Also let's not forget that Wade is going to be predominately guarding Green/Leonard, which essentially means he doesn't have to do much defensively. Unlike last series where he was forced to guard Paul George for 75% of the series, and the one before, where he was guarding Butler for 38 min a game...
I expect Tony Parker to have a good series. Chalmers and Cole need to take it upon themselves to limit this guy somehow, and trust me, if they don't do well, Wade will most likely switch onto Parker in critical moments, followed by a brief stretch of Lebron -- just to throw Parker off rhythm.
Duncan and Bosh is the most significant matchup in this series. I'm not exactly sure if Spol is going to put Bosh on Duncan, or let Haslem start on him. Bosh should take it upon himself to guard Tim Duncan. No questions asked. This is the NBA finals. You want that matchup. On the other end, Bosh has thrived against Duncan, averaging 20 and 10 I believe against the Spurs. Duncan should get his against Bosh, but at the other end, Duncan is doing a lot more work. Bosh likes to stay on the perimeter, and now Duncan has to shift to contact Lebron/Wade from getting to the paint and have great recovery speed to get to Bosh when they kick it out.
There is a lot to say about Miami's bench and the Spurs bench, but I want to get a feel for game 1 before I start making comments.
Ginobli comes in the game around the 5 minute mark in the first quarter. Expect him to guard Dwayne Wade until he exits and for Ray Allen to pick him up near the end of the first quarter moving to the 8 or 9 minute mark in the second.
Ginobli should play solid. He is going to see multiple solid defenders tonight. When he's in at the end of the game, expect Lebron or Wade to guard Ginobli.
The Spurs right a lot of high pick and roles, but MIA in my opinion is the best team in the NBA at defending the pick and roll. Their rotations are so fast. Tonight, I expect Pop to pick on the high pick and role, executing it multiple times until you get Bosh stuck on an island with Tony Parker. IMO, that's going to be the most effective offense for the Spurs tonight, until their role players and bench get settled in for this moment that most have never encountered.
I told you all that my object was to win 7,000 in the NBA playoffs. I'm already ahead of schedule. I don't play around during the finals. Film session tomorrow evening after this game.
$1720 on the -215.
Wade OVER 17 Points -110 Risk $220
Bosh OVER 14.5 Points -110 Risk $110
Wade Series PPG OVER 16.5 -125 (5 dimes line) Risk $125
Lebron James a tripple double in series +230 Risk $50
When the Heat formed, I said on this site this team would be a dynasty. People laughed at me when the Heat started off the season at .500 their first 20 games. We now know who won those debates with the Heat making their third nba finals in a row.
The Spurs are a team that thrives on execution. With this being a first nba finals game for the majority of their players, it's tough to assess how they are going to respond. Everyone on the Heat team save for Birdman and Rashard Lewis have been to and won an NBA finals I believe. That's a pretty significant advantage in my book. Miami is the more experienced team here by far.
I expect MIA to win this series in 5 or 6. Popovic will win 1 game by himself based on his adjustments. Carlisle is a very similar coach but lets not forget mia was up by 15 with 5 min to go in game 2 and they blew that lead. This miami team will not do the same.
Leonard is going to start on Lebron James. A strong defender but doesn't have the lateral quickness that Lebron does and imo his strength, which is usually his biggest asset, will not phase James one bit. The Spurs are going to have to trap him whenever possible and force him to be a playmaker, which is naturally what he wants to do. The only way to beat Lebron James is to get inside his head.
Dallas succeeded with playing a ton of zone in 2011 and I expect Pop to employ a similar strategy. Lebron was frustrated with the zone but this time around, his jumper is much improved so you can't rely strictly on zone. If Leonard struggles on James, expect Danny Green to get a crack at him and Leonard to switch over to Wade. Green is a longer defender with quicker hands but he will most definitely struggle to guard James down in the high or low post.
I think we are going to see a big series from Wade. He is clearly hurting but with all the attention Pop is going to put on stopping James, I expect Wade to see a lot of 1 on 1, something he hasn't had for a while. If the Heat go with a larger lineup at times, expect Parker to guard Wade for brief moments, but I doubt that will work out. Parker will most likely have to guard Ray Allen when the Heat go with Wade at the point.
Let's not forget that over 3 nba finals runs (2 rings), Wade's ppg average in the finals is among the best in NBA history. I don't expect him to be averaging no 15 ppg in these finals, hurt or not. Spurs are not big enough down low to bother Wade. With the exception of the two Spurs wing defenders I named, there is no one on this team that can really just pack in the paint and bother Wade and James. Duncan knows better than to leave Bosh all alone.
Also let's not forget that Wade is going to be predominately guarding Green/Leonard, which essentially means he doesn't have to do much defensively. Unlike last series where he was forced to guard Paul George for 75% of the series, and the one before, where he was guarding Butler for 38 min a game...
I expect Tony Parker to have a good series. Chalmers and Cole need to take it upon themselves to limit this guy somehow, and trust me, if they don't do well, Wade will most likely switch onto Parker in critical moments, followed by a brief stretch of Lebron -- just to throw Parker off rhythm.
Duncan and Bosh is the most significant matchup in this series. I'm not exactly sure if Spol is going to put Bosh on Duncan, or let Haslem start on him. Bosh should take it upon himself to guard Tim Duncan. No questions asked. This is the NBA finals. You want that matchup. On the other end, Bosh has thrived against Duncan, averaging 20 and 10 I believe against the Spurs. Duncan should get his against Bosh, but at the other end, Duncan is doing a lot more work. Bosh likes to stay on the perimeter, and now Duncan has to shift to contact Lebron/Wade from getting to the paint and have great recovery speed to get to Bosh when they kick it out.
There is a lot to say about Miami's bench and the Spurs bench, but I want to get a feel for game 1 before I start making comments.
Ginobli comes in the game around the 5 minute mark in the first quarter. Expect him to guard Dwayne Wade until he exits and for Ray Allen to pick him up near the end of the first quarter moving to the 8 or 9 minute mark in the second.
Ginobli should play solid. He is going to see multiple solid defenders tonight. When he's in at the end of the game, expect Lebron or Wade to guard Ginobli.
The Spurs right a lot of high pick and roles, but MIA in my opinion is the best team in the NBA at defending the pick and roll. Their rotations are so fast. Tonight, I expect Pop to pick on the high pick and role, executing it multiple times until you get Bosh stuck on an island with Tony Parker. IMO, that's going to be the most effective offense for the Spurs tonight, until their role players and bench get settled in for this moment that most have never encountered.
I told you all that my object was to win 7,000 in the NBA playoffs. I'm already ahead of schedule. I don't play around during the finals. Film session tomorrow evening after this game.
$1720 on the -215.
Wade OVER 17 Points -110 Risk $220
Bosh OVER 14.5 Points -110 Risk $110
Wade Series PPG OVER 16.5 -125 (5 dimes line) Risk $125
Lebron James a tripple double in series +230 Risk $50
