Where my tennis people at? Isn't Nadal a steal at -150 vs. chokeabitch on 6/7???

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • KushMoney
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-11-11
    • 658

    #36
    HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


    Everything else doesn't matter.


    Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.
    Comment
    • Robber
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-21-09
      • 6432

      #37
      Originally posted by horja1
      Wawrinka won 1 tourney and played 2 more finals, almost won against Djokovic at Australian Open, won against Gasquet, Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer, Dimitrov, Murray, Almagro, and he was awfull this year? you're funny
      No he was saying it was as bad as he's looked this year

      He's been very good this year
      Comment
      • Robber
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-21-09
        • 6432

        #38
        Originally posted by KushMoney
        HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


        Everything else doesn't matter.


        Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.
        What's the logic for Novak first set as opposed to 2nd or 3rd
        Comment
        • Inkwell77
          SBR MVP
          • 02-03-11
          • 3227

          #39
          I see absolutely zero value on Nadal.

          Playing the best player in the world who you just lost to 6-2 7-6 a few weeks ago. Joker 8-3 vs Nadal since the 2011 season.
          Last year in the French Nadal greatly benefitted from the weather, imo.
          Comment
          • TheMLBKing
            SBR MVP
            • 04-20-13
            • 1129

            #40
            Originally posted by mtc44380
            I am on Nadal in straight sets for +320. I think Nadal will take the first 2 sets, probably 6-3, 7-5, and I just hope that he can close out the match in the 3rd. -150 is a good price, but I am hoping that the public sees the Joker victory last match and hammers him, dropping the line to -125ish, and then I will bet it.
            don't worry, they'll split the first 2 sets anyway.
            Comment
            • Hangoverblack
              SBR MVP
              • 01-27-12
              • 1900

              #41
              WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
              STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

              Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.

              Good luck gents
              Comment
              • GoBlue77
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-20-11
                • 9166

                #42
                Originally posted by Hangoverblack
                WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
                STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

                Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.



                Good luck gents
                shoulda waited broski, +155 now... went back up
                Comment
                • samus82
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 04-16-10
                  • 404

                  #43
                  The last time these 2 played Nadal was only recently back from injury and still picking up his game. He certainly hasn't looked as good as he has in the past in this tournament, but he has improved each match and looked very impressive against Wawrinka. As his form has improved so has his confidence, you only need to compare his body language here to that in Rome to see the difference in his attitude.

                  Nadal's record at Roland Garros can't be argued with, it's amazing. Last time they played here Nadal beat Djoko fairly comfortably although the rain break did help. I see why people are trying to hunt the value choosing Djoko but to say there is no value on Nadal is just foolish.
                  Comment
                  • samus82
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 04-16-10
                    • 404

                    #44
                    Btw just to add Nadal's record at Roland Garros is 57-1, record against Djoko at RG - 4-0.
                    Comment
                    • Ron29301
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-27-11
                      • 2311

                      #45
                      Originally posted by Hangoverblack
                      WAGERTYPE: DATE: TEAM: RISKING / TO WIN TICKET#:
                      STRAIGHT BET Jun 07 MU [4257] DJOKOVIC, NOVAK +135 (DJOKOVIC, NOVAK vrs NADAL, RAFAEL) 955.00 USD / 1289.00 USD 29435119

                      Djoker's line gets shorter... So much for a better price before the match.

                      Good luck gents
                      Lets Roll!!!
                      ONLINE
                      06/07/2013
                      01:18 AM
                      [Ticket #: ] STRAIGHT BET
                      06/07/2013 @ 08:00 AM MU [4257] NOVAK DJOKOVIC +125
                      (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs RAFAEL NADAL)
                      300.00 375.00
                      Comment
                      • Ontnr
                        SBR Hustler
                        • 03-02-12
                        • 75

                        #46
                        Originally posted by samus82
                        The last time these 2 played Nadal was only recently back from injury and still picking up his game. He certainly hasn't looked as good as he has in the past in this tournament, but he has improved each match and looked very impressive against Wawrinka. As his form has improved so has his confidence, you only need to compare his body language here to that in Rome to see the difference in his attitude.

                        Nadal's record at Roland Garros can't be argued with, it's amazing. Last time they played here Nadal beat Djoko fairly comfortably although the rain break did help. I see why people are trying to hunt the value choosing Djoko but to say there is no value on Nadal is just foolish.
                        I feel that roughly 80 percent of the users on this forum that use the word 'value' don't really know what it means, despite the relative simplicity of the concept.

                        To assume not only that one of the biggest tennis bet markets (grand slam SF, two best players in the world) are wrong, but so much off that it creates value on one side, and then go on to say that anyone who doesn't miraculously recognise this value is 'foolish', just doesn't understand the words he's using. And that's scary when it comes to gambling, since it can lose you a ton of money.
                        Comment
                        • aman86
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-29-09
                          • 3115

                          #47
                          over 42 is the play
                          Comment
                          • sando
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-30-12
                            • 3723

                            #48
                            Originally posted by KushMoney
                            HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


                            Everything else doesn't matter.


                            Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.
                            i like this bet.
                            Comment
                            • samus82
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 04-16-10
                              • 404

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Ontnr
                              I feel that roughly 80 percent of the users on this forum that uses the word 'value' doesn't really know what it means, despite the relative simplicity of the concept.

                              To assume not only that one of the biggest tennis bet markets (grand slam SF, two best players in the world) are wrong, but so much off that it creates value on one side, and then go on to say that anyone who doesn't miraculously recognise this value is 'foolish', just doesn't understand the words he's using. And that's scary when it comes to gambling, since it can lose you a ton of money.
                              I did not say to favor either way, or that the line was set incorrectly, I am simply stating anyone who is under estimating Nadal's chances in this match is foolish. If Nadal was 1/5 for a match like this, you could fairly say there is no value, but at 8/13 (I use english odds), there is value. Fair enough if you favor Djoko, but my point is that people on here have said there is no value in Nadal at all, that is foolish to say. It depends on what you believe will happen, but if you think that Nadal will win this match, 8/13 is a decent price considering his ability on clay and his record at RG.

                              I get your point about mis-using the term value, but I meant what I said.
                              Comment
                              • Ontnr
                                SBR Hustler
                                • 03-02-12
                                • 75

                                #50
                                Originally posted by samus82
                                I did not say to favor either way, or that the line was set incorrectly, I am simply stating anyone who is under estimating Nadal's chances in this match is foolish. If Nadal was 1/5 for a match like this, you could fairly say there is no value, but at 8/13 (I use english odds), there is value. Fair enough if you favor Djoko, but my point is that people on here have said there is no value in Nadal at all, that is foolish to say. It depends on what you believe will happen, but if you think that Nadal will win this match, 8/13 is a decent price considering his ability on clay and his record at RG.

                                I get your point about mis-using the term value, but I meant what I said.
                                That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

                                Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

                                Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

                                But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.
                                Comment
                                • BigDeem5
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-26-11
                                  • 17191

                                  #51
                                  When does this start?
                                  Comment
                                  • horja1
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 01-13-11
                                    • 5646

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by BigDeem5
                                    When does this start?
                                    started a few minutes ago
                                    Comment
                                    • samus82
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 04-16-10
                                      • 404

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Ontnr
                                      That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

                                      Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

                                      Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

                                      But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.
                                      That is not the definition of value, value means the worth of something. What you are suggesting is the potential difference in suggested price and actual price, like at an auction when you spot something that is that has been incorrectly valued (called a sleeper).

                                      I appreciate within the gambling community that the term is used this way but it is often mis-used as you say.
                                      Comment
                                      • yisman
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 09-01-08
                                        • 75682

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by samus82
                                        That is not the definition of value, value means the worth of something. What you are suggesting is the potential difference in suggested price and actual price, like at an auction when you spot something that is that has been incorrectly valued (called a sleeper).
                                        he described it correctly. There can only be value if the actual probability exceeds the implied probability.
                                        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
                                        [/quote]

                                        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
                                        Comment
                                        • ohumad
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-19-12
                                          • 2298

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by Ontnr
                                          That's okay mate. I don't have any strong personal opinions.. in other words, I have no reason to believe that the market is off, and I don't usually make big bets in these big markets unless I feel that I have an angle that there are good reasons is overlooked by the market.

                                          Definition of value: The real probability of the positive outcome is higher than what the odds are implying. If the odds are 1.7, then the real probability of that outcome needs to be higher than 1/1.7 = 59% for there to be value. Since bookies take a pretty big margin, value is generally a pretty rare thing in big markets and not something that is 'easy' to recognise. The market isn't 50/50 geniuses and idiots..if it was, then the geniuses would easily be able to spot value and half of us would be winners. The reality is that almost everyone that gambles, loses money..in other words, they can't find the value.

                                          Also, if there is value in Nadal, then by definiton the line is set incorrectly.

                                          But hey, not saying that there can't be or isn't value in one of the sides, just that it's never "easy" to spot value and it's never "idiotic" to not spot it.., unless your standards are at the Genius level.
                                          In my opinion, because that's what it is, the value is on Djoker and you can take that to the bank!
                                          Comment
                                          • samus82
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 04-16-10
                                            • 404

                                            #56
                                            I understand what you are saying, and I guess you are right as part of the definition for gambling, but the true English definition of the term value is different. I had a problem with people saying that there is no value in Nadal as to me that means someone says that the price offered has no literal value to bet on when really its a good price.
                                            Comment
                                            • TheMLBKing
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-20-13
                                              • 1129

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by KushMoney
                                              HUGE on Djokovic 1st Set


                                              Everything else doesn't matter.


                                              Match is too close to call. It's likely gonna be close and slightly dramatic.
                                              buried.
                                              Comment
                                              • ohumad
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-19-12
                                                • 2298

                                                #58
                                                4.5 for djokovic down a set!? Put your house on that sht!
                                                Comment
                                                • BennyBigNuts
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 04-16-12
                                                  • 8700

                                                  #59
                                                  6-4 nadal
                                                  He looks plain nasty today. That dry air makes his ball disgusting.
                                                  I like my spot right now.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • pouyasophy
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-11-13
                                                    • 1665

                                                    #60
                                                    both players are amazing...not gonna bet but I love watching the 2 best go at it in tennis
                                                    Comment
                                                    • BennyBigNuts
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-16-12
                                                      • 8700

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Inkwell77
                                                      I see absolutely zero value on Nadal.

                                                      Playing the best player in the world who you just lost to 6-2 7-6 a few weeks ago. Joker 8-3 vs Nadal since the 2011 season.
                                                      Last year in the French Nadal greatly benefitted from the weather, imo.
                                                      Those are Jerkoff stats you just stated. Have nothing to do with the Clay buddy. Nadal pummels him like 12-3 lifetime.
                                                      Weather is in his favor for this match as well.
                                                      We ain't playing tiddly winks here brah.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BennyBigNuts
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-16-12
                                                        • 8700

                                                        #62
                                                        Most of the time, losing the first set is HUGE. But for chokemybitch, it means basically nothing. Never seen so much ice in the veins as this guy. He can comeback from any deficit. One of the only ones in this sport who can do it too.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • BennyBigNuts
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-16-12
                                                          • 8700

                                                          #63
                                                          I will say chokeabitch looks a little flat and frustrated early. Nadal is just dominating so far.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BennyBigNuts
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 04-16-12
                                                            • 8700

                                                            #64
                                                            2-2 2nd set, I'd be shocked if Nadal doesn't win this one also. Seems to be cruising on his serve. Chokeabitch hasn't had a break point the whole match. Hasn't even threatened.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TheMLBKing
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 04-20-13
                                                              • 1129

                                                              #65
                                                              hopefully joker will win the third set to make this somewhat competitive. nadal wins the fourth.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BennyBigNuts
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 04-16-12
                                                                • 8700

                                                                #66
                                                                LOL
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BennyBigNuts
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-16-12
                                                                  • 8700

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by TheMLBKing
                                                                  hopefully joker will win the third set to make this somewhat competitive. nadal wins the fourth.
                                                                  Don't know what you're watching. This looks like a straight set blowout sir.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pouyasophy
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-11-13
                                                                    • 1665

                                                                    #68
                                                                    No joke will eventually make a run but rafa's still in cruise control
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • infamousbacardi
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-16-08
                                                                      • 4556

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Nadal now 12 to 1 in sets won against Djokovic at Roland Garros. With the break in the second he's well on his way to 13 to 1.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • shari91
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 02-23-10
                                                                        • 32661

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by infamousbacardi
                                                                        Nadal now 12 to 1 in sets won against Djokovic at Roland Garros. With the break in the second he's well on his way to 13 to 1.
                                                                        This exact statement was posted at Tennis Insight before you posted yours. Are you mistaflava?
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...