So i posted a thread in a different section. thought id try it here. i am looking for some potential pros or experienced cappers to teach me their ways of how to cap games. i am willing to pay and put in complete effort to be successful. i also ask that this d bag, ghenghis kahn, doesnt put a damn comment on this forum.
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heres my track record, i know pretty much every angle in baseball and working very hard this season.
Are u interesting in mlb? its great value there. What sports are u lookin into?Comment -
i follow mlb, nfl, ncaab, ncaaf, nba, and a little nhl. so any of those would be great to master.
but yes very interested in mlb. as i no its the only sport you can realistically go under .500 and still profit.Comment -
Nobody is going to help you that you'd want help from without something in return. If you have nothing to offer (e.g. excellent programming skills to help them automate their models) then you're probably not going to get much help. An alternative is to put in your work on your own and when you come to a very specific problem that you can post details about, solicit opinions then. There are no mentors in sports betting; why educate the competition?Comment -
wow Miz, u freakin nailed it..Comment -
Why your track record does not include implied probability of your bets?Originally posted by MikeTizzy
Without it, your win percentage is a meaningless number.
Either you don't understand an importance of it. That would be an ignorance.
Or you intentionally don't show it so your record would look better than it actually is. Then it is deception.
As Miz said, seeking sprtsbetting mentor is not going to be very rewarding by definition, but especially if
"mentor" is ignorant or deceptive.Comment -
Weighting aside, why would a w/l record be meaningless if it's ATS?Originally posted by hutennisComment -
Because 55% W/L record, for example, would mean something (weighting and sample size aside) only under assumption that implied probability ATS is 50% or some other fixed, never changing number. And assumption, of course, is mother of all fuk ups.Originally posted by chunk
Here are run line (ATS) odds for today's MLB on 5D
-148/138
-160/150
155/-165
-150/140
-185/170
100/-110
-190/175
150/-160
120/-130
140/-150
-185/170
-150/140
Let's say you bet every favorite and your W/L at the end is 55%
How well did you do?
Or you bet some mix of favorites and dogs and your W/L is 55%.
How much this number alone tells you about how well you've done?Comment -
i dont get how were all competition. we have one competition and its the bookies.... but whatever. i said id pay money for help.Comment -
Originally posted by wizcodlifa
They'll take your money allright.
What are you gonna get back, that's the question.
I am basically certain you are not getting your money's worth.Comment -
okay. i just want to learn. and would love to teach myself. i just dont no where to start. i got a successful mlb system i created running right now. maybe ill just stick with that. check it out.
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So, you want to learn and you don't know where to start.
And yet you have already created a successful mlb system.
Don't you see a little bit of a contradiction right there?
Judging from your questions and comments, I think you should start by developing some critical thinking skills.
You will learn a lot in a process including but not limited to what you need to know to avoid being a shark bait.
You can not learn how to prosper without learning how to survive first.Comment -
hey hutennis i dont need your stupid negative comments. people like you are a waste on the damn site. get a life, and stop posting your stupid un-needed comments. you are wasting your time.Comment -
because if you werent a complete idiot you would no a "system" has nothing to do with capping. im looking to cap games, not just my system.Comment -
I would be very very careful about offering money to people on here (or anywhere) to teach you how to handicap - a lot will see any offer as +Ev and then run for the hills after you have paid it, either with or without actually teaching you anything of any value.
The very first thing you should do is read right the way through the stickied thread at the top of this forum "An introduction to research"
That should give you some good ideas of the sort of route you should be looking to go down - it won't actually teach you how to handicap, but it will certainly help you get started...Comment -
You are right. Thanks for the reminder. Good Luck.Originally posted by wizcodlifa
@chunk
Hey, chunk.
Did I answer your question?
Am I right or wrong?Comment -
I would have to reply yes...and no. You have professed ad nauseum that sports betting is an exercise in futility, so this could go on and on. I know math and I've been around long enough to know what's bogus and what isn't. Obviously, no one is going to give up much, but only sometimes the banter is somewhat amusingOriginally posted by hutennisComment -
Yes and no?Originally posted by chunk
Do you imply that some part of my reasoning is wrong?Comment -
Sports 'handicapping' is a data driven problem then requires a data driven solution. There's no 'magic' to handicapping, there's no 'dark arts' being used that people seem to believe. Whether you have a hypothesis driven approach to sports modelling or an unsupervised machine learning type of approach (or a combination of the two), sports handicapping requires requisite knowledge coupled to unwavering effort.
I went back to university and got myself a Master's in Applied Statistics to become a better sports modeler/bettor. I concurrently taught myself how to program and also read every book/academic paper I could lay my hands on.
Commit yourself wholly to the endeavor for 3-4 years, and you'll then start to reap the benefits.Comment -
I was asking the same question as the OP ... in general. I wasn't asking someone necessarily to take me under their wing, but was looking for a place to start. I've come to the conclusion that while it's great to have all these wonderful situational plays and little nuggets of knowledge, it ultimately comes down to mathematics, data scraping, and analyzing that data with a self-built program to come up with "angles" that are actually worth playing. It's alot of hard work and that sticky at the top of the page seems to me to be a great start.
Also, wizcoldlifa, I don't believe hutennis was trying to be negative. He's simply being truthful. I'd read that stickied post and start from there. Learn how to mathematically break down stats and find advantages. It's alot of trial and error but if you truly love it, you'll be able to accomplish it. If you don't truly love it, the general consensus I'm seeing is that you will not succeed. I'm about to find out if I love it ... or just really like it.
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dude, sport betting is a sham it self, sport betting is something i would never do and avoid, im only on this forum cus its fun!
With that being said, there is no such thing as a system or working hard to get your $$$$$$, you cant hustle the hustlers.Comment -
I interpret ATS as spreads. Your example uses money lines and of course you would need to supply more information. If you are 55% ATS over a large enough sample, then yes, I would say it is self explanatory and would be commendable. Once again, weighting aside.Originally posted by hutennisComment -
so is everyone saying betting is just a waste of time and money? and there isnt a way i can make money?Comment -
Chase systems are a guaranteed ticket to bankruptcy. Learn how to program. If you're not willing to do that, then you should expect to lose long term. The best advice in that case is just to have fun and not take it too seriously.
Also, although it sounds contradictory, winning players are not in competition with the bookie.Comment -
You interpret ATS not only as a spreads but as spreads with an average implied probability of 50%.Originally posted by chunk
Theoretically it maybe OK, but in practice, when you evaluate performance (yours or someone else's) it is a huge leap of faith.
In games like baseball and hokey you obviously will be hugely wrong by definition. (btw, my example was ATS and not money lines)
But even in football and basketball if someone tells you he bets spreads and winning at 55%, you still must know his average odds not to be fooled. What if he buys points all the time thus making his break even point 56% instead of 52?
Moreover, even small increase in IP, especially without large enough sample size, makes results waaaay more likely to be attributed to a simple luck.
So yes, W/L record alone is pretty much meaningless if you want to be serious about it.
It is sort of like taking a bet knowing the odds for one side only.
"Oh, you give me +120 on this? Sounds good. I'll take it"
What if come back is -200? Do you still like the bet?Comment -
your friends are
old threads in this forum
other books that j7 has reviewed
Comment -
Originally posted by roanildinho
This forum is really past its prime now when you have squares coming in here and posting this drivel. I would seriously consider paying Ganchrow to come back and post on this forum.
In fact, I would pay good money to read what that man had to say on a weekly basis.
Maybe there's need for a premium section to the Think Tank? Moderators take note!Comment -
Brettd: This forum used to have so much quality information on a consistent basis. There is still some decent info, but not nearly as much as it was a few years back. It has been on a decline ever since guys like Ganchrow, Justin7, Mathdotcom have left. If you want good info here, it is best to read the older threads.Comment -
Tell me about it. So disappointing.Comment -
my record is not deceptive u can go into my history and see all my units and values. Ive been hella busy studying and dont hav much time to post here, but i assure u guys i can educate who ever on mlb. im going for rank 1 on mlb covers and rank 1 overall, watch me.Comment -
Weather it is deception or ignorance I don't know and I don't care.Originally posted by MikeTizzy
But what I know for sure, your record is simply incomplete to draw any kind of meaningful conclusion.
Here it is.
Since you are ready to educate whomever, please educate me.MLB Regular Season | WLT Pct Units Rank ATS 115-79-0 59.28% 12958 105 O/U 80-65-4 55.17% 2440 740 All Picks 195-144-4 57.52% 15398 99
How good do I need to be to get 59.28% ATS or 55.17% in O/U in MLB with posted sample size?
Do I need to be any good at all? Could it be just luck?
P.S.
Anyone who is craving for some meaningful sports betting discussion is welcome to jump right in.Comment -
what do u mean how good do u need to be? such a wierd question.
whats luck got to do things, i have tried many experiments. If u are jus going off guessing and on ur gut feelings or whims and start throwing around units all over a single board, its almost certain will be catastrophic day. Im positive u will be negative units, i have tried that! and also have tried to seriously singling out best values by breakdown matchups thoroughly and apply the proper units, therefore my stats indicate i have successfully through many experiments understand being selective and applying best units is most efficient to gain positive units. Im positive of this. You can see my 1st year stats, compare to my 2nd full season. Incredible difference as i have "figured" it out.Comment -
I don't see it as a weird question at all.Originally posted by MikeTizzy
You refer to your record as to something that supposed to show that you are good.
I disagree in a sense that the record i see does not really tells me anything. It is incomplete for the purpose of evaluation of your performance.
Is winning 59% in MLB spreads really that good?
How hard is it to get this number?
What is an average in your opinion?Comment -
2012 Season WLT Pct Units Rank ATS Picks 460-*435-*4 51.40% -*28295 30006 of 33457 my 1st season and my 2nd season (in progess) do u see the difference a few % of higher win rate can do Hutennis?2013 Season WLT Pct Units Rank ATS Picks 506-*413-*15 55.06% +*26314 27 of 27745
i see u're really curious about this whole "how hard or how good i have to be" idea.
According the public, with all the stats and rankings of public picking, average is less than 50% success rate, thats not counting juice.
So basically at least 95% of ppl are -EV over time with whatever their "method" is to going about selecting picks.
So i guess its extremely difficult to pick ATS or O/U of 55%+
and yes id say in mlb its incredibly difficult to achieve sustained success. what are u tryin to understand? i think you might be trolling since u got it all figured out how to be "good"Comment -
And painfully obvious that you are very wrong.Originally posted by MikeTizzy
You see, you maybe talented and successful. But that is not the point.
The point is, that it is impossible to determine that from your record as it presented.
Your record is simply incomplete.
And it is very strange that you, being so smart and knowledgeable, still dont see why.
I'm positive that my dog can have 55%+ in MLB spreads and if it bets large enough it can match your record in a heart beat.
Again, if you would understand why more information is need and would supply it, I would change my mind and congratulate you on a job well done. But as it stands now, I see nothing my dog would not be able to do.
Can you see how?Comment
