Warriors PK -110 (Game 6)

[tatddy]

I've had this game circled since Sunday night. Love the Warriors here. This is setting up just like 2007, Dallas versus Golden State.

Why the strange line? I need your 3rd level thinking here.

[vyomguy]

Why the strange line? I need your 3rd level thinking here.

Nothing strange with the line.

Warriors were underdogs in game 3 and 4 at home. They were 7.5 points underdog at denver.

Considering the previous lines, PK is the correct line as this is a must win game for denver.

The line is right..and the value is on warriors.

[tatddy]

Nothing strange with the line.

Warriors were underdogs in game 3 and 4 at home. They were 7.5 points underdog at denver.

Considering the previous lines, PK is the correct line as this is a must win game for denver.

The line is right..and the value is on warriors.

So no adjustment made for the utter domination the Dubs have shown at home? You know they are the better team, I know they are better, Vegas should know they have a significant edge. But the line is set such that the Dubs will be a heavy public play. No?

[amrit]

^^ yeah vyom, 90%+ of the public is on GSW right now.

[The Giant]

Why the strange line? I need your 3rd level thinking here.

It's not strange, books just don't usually move much from their pre-series prediction.

Example: Warriors 2007, Pistons versus Lakers 2004, and many others that my brain is having trouble recalling right now.

[vyomguy]

So no adjustment made for the utter domination the Dubs have shown at home? You know they are the better team, I know they are better, Vegas should know they have a significant edge. But the line is set such that the Dubs will be a heavy public play. No?

Warriors are without david lee. Warriors are not the better team. But they are better coached team.

Talent wise, denver is better as they have ton of depth. Not to mention elimination game for denver.

I have stopped looking at public percentages long time back. Doesn't mean anything. Books don't get all the games right. They lose ton of games as well. The sooner you learn this, the sooner you will be a better gambler.

Forget the public %s and handicap the game yourself. PK is the right line here. I was expecting warriors to be a slight underdog here honestly. Line is pretty accurate in my mind.

Warriors should not be -3 here...no way.

And the series is not going back to denver. Anybody who actually thinks the series will go back to denver, doesn't know NBA or don't have a feel for the playoffs.

[tatddy]

Warriors are without david lee. Warriors are not the better team. But they are better coached team.

Talent wise, denver is better as they have ton of depth. Not to mention elimination game for denver.

I have stopped looking at public percentages long time back. Doesn't mean anything. Books don't get all the games right. They lose ton of games as well. The sooner you learn this, the sooner you will be a better gambler.

Forget the public %s and handicap the game yourself. PK is the right line here. I was expecting warriors to be a slight underdog here honestly. Line is pretty accurate in my mind.

Warriors should not be -3 here...no way.

And the series is not going back to denver. Anybody who actually thinks the series will go back to denver, doesn't know NBA or don't have a feel for the NBA playoffs.

Thanks for the post. Series has gone exactly as I expected so far and I could care less about public percentages...haven't even looked. Just assumed the line at pk would get hit heavily for the home team here.

I'm on series price heavy so I don't really care to play this game.

And Denver is not the better team in its current state....even without lee. Nobody cares who is more talented.

[vyomguy]

And Denver is not the better team in its current state....even without lee. Nobody cares who is more talented.

Books don't change their stand drastically in a series. They opened denver as -1000 favorites. Obviously, they are not going to make them underdogs in the elimination game. Think about it. Books will look like fools if they made denver underdogs here. That's basically folding their hands.

[amrit]

Vyom...you seem extremely confident on this play...how much are you betting on it.

[tatddy]

Books don't change their stand drastically in a series. They opened denver as -1000 favorites. Obviously, they are not going to make them underdogs in the elimination game. Think about it. Books will look like fools if they made denver underdogs here. That's basically folding their hands.

No argument there. But their lines are also set/moved to balance action. They were getting a ton of play on Denver futures prior to this series.

In any event go dubs. I can't see any way they lose here if the game is played straight up.

[LowRollin]

this is game 7 for golden state.

[vyomguy]

Vyom...you seem extremely confident on this play...how much are you betting on it.

I bet the same amount on every pick I post here.

Bankroll management is the most important thing in gambling.

[tylerjz24]

Go Dub's let's seal this series

[amrit]

^^ I agree about the bankroll management thing, but sometimes you gotta pick your spots to go big as well, just wondering if you thought this was one of those times.

[frostno98]

Thanks for the post. Series has gone exactly as I expected so far and I could care less about public percentages...haven't even looked. Just assumed the line at pk would get hit heavily for the home team here.

I'm on series price heavy so I don't really care to play this game.

And Denver is not the better team in its current state....even without lee. Nobody cares who is more talented.

Again Vegas is gambling with Denver because they're trying to bury the public this game. I'm guessing it's a risk vs reward strategy. Vegas knows the public has been on over Goldenstate since game 2 with Steph Curry phenomenal shooting making headlines everywhere but they're are still not making a line where you would feel comfortable even taking Denver. Many locals are being rocked right during GSW playoff run. Game 5 was the 1st time since game 1 that George Karl went with the same lineup that got him the 57 wins. I was really expecting the Warriors to be a -3.5 point or higher just to get balance action on Denver, I mean that's the whole point of oddsmakers right? Get balance action to win juice.

[Aye J Mac]

I love it putting 50k on the Moneyline . B.o.l everyone

[Sport_Fish]

Books don't change their stand drastically in a series. They opened denver as -1000 favorites. Obviously, they are not going to make them underdogs in the elimination game. Think about it. Books will look like fools if they made denver underdogs here. That's basically folding their hands.

[face]

^yes it's true, denver was -970 to win the series, -1000 at some books

[Gus Fring]

I love it putting 50k on the Moneyline . B.o.l everyone

50k

[k4cowboys4k]

Denver getting anything here is a gift

[TheAntFather]

Uh oh.. Line just moved to GS -1.
I don't like that one bit.

[You mad bro]

so if denver wins than what will everyones excuse be? the refs? what will it be? nothing is a lock come playoff time especially in the rigged NBA

[trevor123698]

Why the penetrate would i pay the price to get the money line when I can take -1 and get my money BACK if it hits at -1. Its the same bet but you turn yourself into the chump taking the moneyline. I'm not scared of any spread let alone -1

[secret007]

I'm not going to be trapped by books again ( like game 4 ).. Warriors or NO PLAY here.

[trevor123698]

the nuggets play wilson chandler at the four. g state isn't big themselves but they are better than denver and on fire right now. they will cash

[TheMLBKing]

Warriors are without david lee. Warriors are not the better team. But they are better coached team.

Talent wise, denver is better as they have ton of depth. Not to mention elimination game for denver.

I have stopped looking at public percentages long time back. Doesn't mean anything. Books don't get all the games right. They lose ton of games as well. The sooner you learn this, the sooner you will be a better gambler.

Forget the public %s and handicap the game yourself. PK is the right line here. I was expecting warriors to be a slight underdog here honestly. Line is pretty accurate in my mind.

Warriors should not be -3 here...no way.

And the series is not going back to denver. Anybody who actually thinks the series will go back to denver, doesn't know NBA or don't have a feel for the playoffs.

what happens if the nuggets force a game 7? you delete this post or let it ride?

[vancityswag]

i have a gsw series bet 125 to win 480 and 125 to win 165 for a combined 250 to win 645. what should i do for the den/gs game? 645 on denver? if gsw wins i lose nothing but if denver wins, i win 645 with the possibilty of winning the series bet in game 7? or just go small to hedge out the original risk of 250

[LRKontroll]

NBA is showcasing all around the social media the TOP 10 Stephen Curry plays...

[daimoshokage]

Fading this stupid shit.. Denver is the better team..

[vancityswag]

i have a gsw series bet 125 to win 480 and 125 to win 165 for a combined 250 to win 645. what should i do for the den/gs game? 645 on denver? if gsw wins i lose nothing but if denver wins, i win 645 with the possibilty of winning the series bet in game 7? or just go small to hedge out the original risk of 250

[Raffaele]

Warriors in 7

[k4cowboys4k]

i have a gsw series bet 125 to win 480 and 125 to win 165 for a combined 250 to win 645. what should i do for the den/gs game? 645 on denver? if gsw wins i lose nothing but if denver wins, i win 645 with the possibilty of winning the series bet in game 7? or just go small to hedge out the original risk of 250

Not to mention the opportunity to win both bets with a GS win by 1 or push at 2. Betting a smaller number like 250-300 while buying a half point to 2.5 seems like a smart play.

[Pick'nParlays]

so many people on GSW. Making me nervous.....

[TwoWays]

Never liked whiners in bb. And the GSW are whiners right now. Can't take a little physicality in the game.

[amrit]

Line is now at -2, is this a good or bad thing?