UFC 160 - SJ's writeups

[Swinging Johnson]

http://www.sbrforum.com/ufc/free-pic...silva-a-30715/ (Main Event)


http://www.sbrforum.com/ufc/free-pic...tions-a-30811/ (3 main undercards)

[MD]

While I appreciate the effort you appear to have put into your write-ups, I disagree with a lot of your points. For one, suggesting a play on Texeira at -280 against one of the only plausible opponents for him who's going to aggressively seek takedowns is a bad position, in my opinion. Amongst the other points I disagree with, assuming that Grant has value because Maynard may stand with him in an attempt to get a title shot. For one, Maynard is a very good MMA boxer, and has been fighting like a boring asshole for years. Against Florian, in a number one contenders bout, he lay all over Florian without a care in the world. No reason to think he won't attempt the same strategy here. Recommending a play on Velasquez -650 isn't worth posting about either, honestly.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Didn't we see pages upon pages dedicated to Mendes -900...?

[MD]

Didn't we see pages upon pages dedicated to Mendes -900...?

And pages upon pages of people telling BIGDAY he was turning into a desperate can.

[Swinging Johnson]

MD, nicely opionated commentary. I believe it goes without saying that any fighter north of -250 should be considered as part of a parlay bet rather than laying a straight wager.

I think you make a good case for Te Huna as he certainly has the chops to get the job done. This is a case of do you wager based on value or opinion. In my opinion Texeira will win this one handily enough that I would rather risk the big lumber than tear my ticket up on Te Huna's perceived value. That being said, I would hardly suggest making this a large wager.

Thanks for the feedback. Good stuff!

[Sacrelicious]

MD, nicely opionated commentary. I believe it goes without saying that any fighter north of -250 should be considered as part of a parlay bet rather than laying a straight wager.

I think you make a good case for Te Huna as he certainly has the chops to get the job done. This is a case of do you wager based on value or opinion. In my opinion Texeira will win this one handily enough that I would rather risk the big lumber than tear my ticket up on Te Huna's perceived value. That being said, I would hardly suggest making this a large wager.

Thanks for the feedback. Good stuff!

Why??

[Sacrelicious]

While I appreciate the effort you appear to have put into your write-ups, I disagree with a lot of your points. For one, suggesting a play on Texeira at -280 against one of the only plausible opponents for him who's going to aggressively seek takedowns is a bad position, in my opinion. Amongst the other points I disagree with, assuming that Grant has value because Maynard may stand with him in an attempt to get a title shot. For one, Maynard is a very good MMA boxer, and has been fighting like a boring asshole for years. Against Florian, in a number one contenders bout, he lay all over Florian without a care in the world. No reason to think he won't attempt the same strategy here. Recommending a play on Velasquez -650 isn't worth posting about either, honestly.

My only issue on this is the lingering age issue, and the fact that he has been noticeably showing the signs of it, as well as any effects of the lingering injury. TJ Grant has shown some vicious and unreal striking, but it has largely been against fighters that are not on the same level as Maynard, not even close to be honest.

That being said, if the knee injury has not had a big effect on his game, I see no reason he can flatten TJ out for 3 rounds and grind a decision.

Am I willing to lay the juice? Probably not.. actually, I will likely be making a small wager on Grant, there is some value there I think, but nothing that I will go balls to the wall on.

[Sacrelicious]

Also, its been a while, I need to go back and watch the fight again. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if I remember correctly, the reason TJ was so successful with his striking in his last fight was his opponent was not keeping the distance with his boxing properly, I can not see Maynard making this same mistake, but who knows.

Need to rewatch the last few fights.

[BIGDAY]

And pages upon pages of people telling BIGDAY he was turning into a desperate can.

MD, I was desperate.

It was a lock.

I was very willing to pay what ever it took to get free money.

[getlucky2win]

MD, nicely opionated commentary. I believe it goes without saying that any fighter north of -250 should be considered as part of a parlay bet rather than laying a straight wager.

I think you make a good case for Te Huna as he certainly has the chops to get the job done. This is a case of do you wager based on value or opinion. In my opinion Texeira will win this one handily enough that I would rather risk the big lumber than tear my ticket up on Te Huna's perceived value. That being said, I would hardly suggest making this a large wager.

Thanks for the feedback. Good stuff!

lmao. where did they get this guy? br. what happened to the brian mendez write-ups? His were good and I respected his opinion. on the bright side it looks like we have a new guy to fade. parlays r magic. they turn unbettable lines into moneymakers

[Swinging Johnson]

That question is almost rhetorical is it not? If you've been around long enough laying serious lumber on a regular basis is a recipe for disaster. You will get away with it often enough but when you don't it's a formidable hole to dig out of. It sounds like you're a fight fan more than a gambler, no?

[Sacrelicious]

That question is almost rhetorical is it not? If you've been around long enough laying serious lumber on a regular basis is a recipe for disaster. You will get away with it often enough but when you don't it's a formidable hole to dig out of. It sounds like you're a fight fan more than a gambler, no?

But a parlay is just a progressive bet,

If there is no value in a straight juice play, why put it in a parlay?

I am a fight fan, I'm also a relative novice to this having only been doing it for a little over a year.

Honestly, I'm not trying to critique you, I'm just curious and trying to learn, I am trying to get as much perspective on this as possible.

[getlucky2win]

big surprise u r wrong again. I dnt like gambling... unless I have an edge. big favs have plenty of value sometimes. gl bud. u need it

[PunisherIND]

lmao. where did they get this guy? br. what happened to the brian mendez write-ups? His were good and I respected his opinion. on the bright side it looks like we have a new guy to fade. parlays r magic. they turn unbettable lines into moneymakers

I think illmatick had to sacrifice himself as a condition for gaberz being allowed back.

[Sacrelicious]

big surprise u r wrong again. I dnt like gambling... unless I have an edge. big favs have plenty of value sometimes. gl bud. u need it

Well this is something I quickly realized, after failing miserably at gambling for several months. It is the whole notion of "bet one unit to win" on dogs and "bet to win one unit" on favorites, insofar at least as I can understand it. Am I wrong here?

[getlucky2win]

I think illmatick had to sacrifice himself as a condition for gaberz being allowed back.

that's a terrible trade

[Vaughany]

Why??

Obviously because if you put the -650 with another -650 it turns it into +1300 cuz!!

[MD]

MD, I was desperate.

It was a lock.

I was very willing to pay what ever it took to get free money.

I'm not saying I agree with anything that was said in your thread (I don't, for the most part), I'm just saying that's the response you got.

That question is almost rhetorical is it not? If you've been around long enough laying serious lumber on a regular basis is a recipe for disaster. You will get away with it often enough but when you don't it's a formidable hole to dig out of. It sounds like you're a fight fan more than a gambler, no?

I like to consider myself a fairly adept gambler, as I've made what could be considered a very large amount of money betting on sports, so I know that mistakes happen simply and frequently for pretty much everyone who gambles. A mistake that a lot of people make that I find to be a big leak is that they'll take a favourite that they're not willing to play straight up, then put them in a parlay, usually with another big favourite.

To try and frame why I have such a big problem with this strategy, I'll put it to you like this: If I'm not willing to play Jon Jones -800 straight up, why would I be willing to play Jones -800 straight up and then, if I win, take all of my winnings and put it on Sara McMann -750 straight up? It's doing what we initially set out not to do, twice.

To me, it's simply a matter of value. If I think Jones wins 95% of the time, there has to be value in the -900 line, which makes it playable. Parlaying a pick which you can't play straight up is a mistake, though, I assure you.

Best of luck with your write-ups in the future. Your avatar always makes me think of Guilty Gear. I love those games.

[getlucky2win]

math is a tough nut to crack. I only put my unit at risk when the rubber busts and I dnt hav a backup

[Vaughany]

I'm not saying I agree with anything that was said in your thread (I don't, for the most part), I'm just saying that's the response you got.

yeah, if anything we were the two supporting BIgday saying it was good value! (as ridiculous as it seems when betting on a -650 favourite!)

[MD]

yeah, if anything we were the two supporting BIgday saying it was good value! (as ridiculous as it seems when betting on a -650 favourite!)

Exactly. I was massive on Mendes, almost unwinnable fight for Elkins. Mendes had value even above -1200.

[getlucky2win]

how a parlay works is day 1 sht. cant believe this guy. bring back illmatick

[Sacrelicious]

I'm not saying I agree with anything that was said in your thread (I don't, for the most part), I'm just saying that's the response you got.



I like to consider myself a fairly adept gambler, as I've made what could be considered a very large amount of money betting on sports, so I know that mistakes happen simply and frequently for pretty much everyone who gambles. A mistake that a lot of people make that I find to be a big leak is that they'll take a favourite that they're not willing to play straight up, then put them in a parlay, usually with another big favourite.

To try and frame why I have such a big problem with this strategy, I'll put it to you like this: If I'm not willing to play Jon Jones -800 straight up, why would I be willing to play Jones -800 straight up and then, if I win, take all of my winnings and put it on Sara McMann -750 straight up? It's doing what we initially set out not to do, twice.

To me, it's simply a matter of value. If I think Jones wins 95% of the time, there has to be value in the -900 line, which makes it playable. Parlaying a pick which you can't play straight up is a mistake, though, I assure you.

Best of luck with your write-ups in the future. Your avatar always makes me think of Guilty Gear. I love those games.

Guilty Gear was awesome. Pre 2003 King Of Fighters was even better.

[Grabaka]

yeah, if anything we were the two supporting BIgday saying it was good value! (as ridiculous as it seems when betting on a -650 favourite!)

But he created a thread where too many people tailed @ -900. That aint cool.

#Freelunchmoney

[Sacrelicious]

that's a terrible trade

Indeed.

[MD]

But he created a thread where too many people tailed @ -900. That aint cool.

#Freelunchmoney

Not as bad as that time you bet on Elkins.

(Just kidding bruhv.)

[getlucky2win]

I dnt really see any value in the lines this weekend. too much juice. so im just parlayin the 7 favs with the biggest hogs

[Grabaka]

Oh! you didnt!!!
yeah....free money my arse

[Vaughany]

But he created a thread where too many people tailed @ -900. That aint cool.

#Freelunchmoney

true cuz

[Grabaka]

Parlay miami heat + brokeback mountain for best movie + mendes!

[getlucky2win]

elkins had value. that ko would only happen 1pct of the time. elkins would win the rematch. sac I think ths thread is ready for that sht pic

[Sacrelicious]

I dnt really see any value in the lines this weekend. too much juice. so im just parlayin the 7 favs with the biggest hogs

Jon Jones annnnd...

Kongo?

[MD]

elkins had value. that ko would only happen 1pct of the time. elkins would win the rematch. sac I think ths thread is ready for that sht pic

We should get that Nick Papageorgio guy in here. I told him Pat Curran would beat Shamhalaev 90% of the time, and he said it was a 50/50 fight and called me a moron. Curran chokes him out in two minutes, and Papageorgio tells me "it was a fluke. Shamhalaev wins that fight five out of ten times, 90% of the time." Was like something out of Anchorman. Can't make this shit up.

[Grabaka]

I want that anderson silva moneyz!

[Sacrelicious]

elkins had value. that ko would only happen 1pct of the time. elkins would win the rematch. sac I think ths thread is ready for that sht pic

Oh, ok. Good call.