Hippo Picks Thread

[Vinnie Paz]

Why do you not play the yes?

[greenhippo]

Simply put its more likely a player gets an out than getting on base and thus much more probable that a batter gets an out as opposed to several in a row getting a hit or one hitting a home run. At work right now, so can't find the exact numbers but pitcher's BA against the second and third time through a lineup is much higher than the first time where the batters are trying to find their groove at the plate and how the pitcher will throw to them. If this were ever a 2nd inning or 6th inning prop I'd never place a wager, too many things working for the pitchers in the first though.

Of course it does take an amount of capping to find matchups, like I mentioned before I'd NEVER take the prop with the Cards or Reds playing, let alone against eachother and look what happened, 2 in the first inning. Same with Brewers and who they're facing, with the O/U on their game against the Cubs around 10.5?? I could tell it would be a high scoring game and sure enough 4 runs in the first. Of course those are all reasons why maybe I should have played the yes on one of those two but in my head I can't help but tend to side with the pitchers so it always ends up a NO bet or no play at all.

[agendaman]

it wont last hippo

[TankHankerous]

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[greenhippo]

it wont last hippo

By it won't last what exactly do you mean? Will I stop having day after day of zero losses? Sure, at some point, probably as soon as this week, I'll go 0-4 on my bets. But at the end of the season will I be up? I absolutely believe so. Will I keep going at my 93% win rate? Nope, but I sure do think I end this season hitting over 60% as lofty as that sounds.

I don't believe for a second every bet I make is a winner, almost half my bets have been RL's so it's not straight prop betting. I tell you what though, I bet there will not be an entire 3-4 game series where a run is scored in the first inning of all of the games between now and May, excluding the teams I mentioned previously that have a knack for putting up runs early.

While I'm looking at it, I went through the 5 early games today and only saw one matchup that I felt worthy of making the no score prop. The other games for one reason or another gave me reason to believe it was more a coinflip than the probability that a pitcher could get 3 outs before giving up a run as odd as that sounds. My look into could not have been more precise, only one of the first 5 games (20%) had no scores in the first inning and that was the one and only one I picked. There is an art to picking these things and reasonable deduction over the course of an entire baseball season should yield pretty good results. That being said I've never capped it over an entire 162 games.

[TankHankerous]

Good find Tank, only thing I don't like is no breakdown of the pitchers.

Although it's not concise by any means, this link can still serve a purpose.

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+pitching&game_type='R'&season=2012&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=pitching&page=1&ts=1365459823169&position='1'&playerType=ALL&timeframe=&last_x_days=&split=i01&sportCode='mlb'&team_id=&active_sw=&page_type=SortablePlayer&sortOrder='desc'&sortColumn=avg&results=&perPage=50&extended=0

(For best result: filter by most IP to get to the starters)

***Edit: Check that out- Cincy has 3 hurlers in the top 15 1st inning runs gave up in 2012

[greenhippo]

Well shit, I guess that 7.5 in the Cards/Reds was a bad line. Always stick to your gut guys, most of the time it will pay off.

[greenhippo]

At least this one was over quick.

Baseball: 14-1-2 (1*)
NBA: 2-1

Overall: 16-1-3 (1*)


Because of the range of my bets with some of them being -130 and others being +170, going to just stick with a record because nothing on my end is a set unit.

* Indicates number of losses that were chased and won thus making the # of losses an eventual +. As of 4/6/13 only one loss has overall cost me $.

[greenhippo]

No Score 1st Inning Astros/Mariners

No time for a big writeup here. Was going to place this bet if my Pit/Ari matchup fell through. This one will be a chase as well, can't see all three games starting off with some runs.

[TankHankerous]

.....Chasing as well

penetrate NOW IT'S TIME TO WIN!

[TankHankerous]

[greenhippo]

Will be chasing both tomorrow. No worry yet, no way every pick I make is a winner. Still feel very confident with both of these series.

[greenhippo]

MLB Chase:

Game 1: 13-3-1
Game 2: 1-0
Game 3: 0-0

NBA: 2-1

NCAAB: 1-0

[greenhippo]

Louisville 2nd Half: -5 (+120)

Stormed back in the last 3 minutes, I think they blow Michigan out now.

[greenhippo]

Good enough way to end the night. Back on track with a good day waiting us tomorrow.

[mcduggly]

Do you have your ties and losses reversed?

[greenhippo]

I have my record as win-tie-loss which now that I'm saying it in my head sounds wrong. Good call

[mcduggly]

I have my record as win-tie-loss which now that I'm saying it in my head sounds wrong. Good call

Not calling you out, just wondering.

[greenhippo]

No score 1st inning Houston/Seattle
No score 1st inning Pitt/Arizona


Both are the second games of our 3 game chase. Yesterday was an anomaly, on average just under 30% of games have a score in the first inning of the game where as yesterday 8/11 (73%) of the games did. When days like this happen, and they will again, not much you can do but move on to the next day. Still looking and feeling strong in the early stages here.

[greenhippo]

Cross-sport Parlay

Uconn Women 1st Half/Lakers 1Q MLs

If Louisville doesn't get blown out they'll make another 2nd half run, but in the first Uconn I think has their way with this less experienced team. Lakers need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, I think they come out strong and easily take a 6+ point lead after one, look for Kobe to go off here. Taking 1Q here instead of the game ML because the juice is much much better. I'm going fairly large on this one, both look like pretty good locks and you're getting about 5/4 on your $.

[ghislaine]

Hey Hippo
Bet365 doesn't seem to offer Women College Hoops ML on the 1st half. What I have is -8.5 spread ( which seems kinda high ) and the entire game ML. What do You think about parlaying the Lakers 1Q with the Uconn ML. It is a little juicier, but would be cool to hit that !
What do You think ? Take it ? They can bring the game right ? You just took the 1st half for the better value am I right ? Thanks for all the and You still hitting crazy 80% all in all, chased losses and everything laid out flat

[greenhippo]

Live betting or second half lines offered at the half?

[ghislaine]

Game hasn't started yet ? What am I missing ?
umm, so basically I have 1st half -8.5 and ML on entire game, bets to be placed now before game start
I am thinking the ML on entire game, You think they can win ? Would parlay that with Your Lakers pick which is genius btw

[greenhippo]

Asking if that option is available to you. I'm guessing it not, unless Lville outscores UConn by 15+ in the second half they won't win this game. I don't see that happening so ML for the game is pretty safe.

[greenhippo]

No Score 1st inning Chicago/Washington


Peavy and Gonzalez are two very solid starters. With the o/u at 7 we should be expecting a very low scoring game, look for both pitchers to breeze through the first with not much challenge.

[ghislaine]

Asking if that option is available to you. I'm guessing it not, unless Lville outscores UConn by 15+ in the second half they won't win this game. I don't see that happening so ML for the game is pretty safe.

Sorry didn't get that, such a degenerate. Thanks, took it The ML in the parlay I mean !

[easyliving]

No score 1st inning Houston/Seattle
No score 1st inning Pitt/Arizona


Both are the second games of our 3 game chase. Yesterday was an anomaly, on average just under 30% of games have a score in the first inning of the game where as yesterday 8/11 (73%) of the games did. When days like this happen, and they will again, not much you can do but move on to the next day. Still looking and feeling strong in the early stages here.

not sure about the astros but will tail the pitt/arizona bet

[greenhippo]

If Astros/Mariners fail me again we'll have more shot at it

[TankHankerous]

The chase is on my nigggas

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[TankHankerous]

A fukkin balk are you kidding me

[greenhippo]

Yeah.....a mother fukkin balk. Wow wow wow wow wow, I don't even know what to say.

[Renegades]

If it were only that easy....

[greenhippo]

And of course no other runs scored to make me feel better about taking the wrong side, fukkin Gio.

[easyliving]

And of course no other runs scored to make me feel better about taking the wrong side, fukkin Gio.

what was the line on the 1st inning no run? must have been heavy juice

[greenhippo]

-135, not a good start to the night.