Hippo Picks Thread

[TankHankerous]

As soon as I win one more no run 1st inning bet, I'll be able to say my last no run 1st inning bet was a winner.

I'm done with this stupid prop forever.

[easyliving]

thats the last time I bet one of these don't know why I decided to start betting them anyway I've always considered them sucker bets and thats exactly what they are. I suggest you stay away from these 1st inning bets as well.

[TankHankerous]

I'm thinking of no run 1st inning astros/mariners

Chase 1 more time?

For posterity?

[2178ice]

Hey Hippo can you tell me your record so far I see you've been winning a lot and I would like to tail your picks just wanna know your record.Also can you tell me how this thread works. Thanks man

[TankHankerous]

Last no run 1st of my life, no matter the outcome

		Risk	Win
(1)	#53224 - HOU/SEA 1st Inn 0-0 pk (-140)E Bedard (Listed) B Maurer (Listed)	$140.00	$100.00

[greenhippo]

173829076-1

4/9/13 7:30pm

$190.00

$95.00

$285.00

Win

4/9/13 10:35pm NBA Basketball 670 Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter -200*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets

173745046-1	4/9/13 2:48pm	$110.00	$88.42	$198.42	Win	2 Team Parlay
					Win	4/9/13 10:35pm NBA Basketball 670 Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter -190*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets
					Win	4/9/13 8:30pm College Women Basketball 692 Connecticut - Women 1st Half -550*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Louisville - Women

173736876-1	4/9/13 1:00pm	$87.50	$70.33	$157.83	Win	2 Team Parlay
					Win	4/9/13 10:35pm NBA Basketball 670 Los Angeles Lakers 1st Quarter -190*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets
					Win	4/9/13 8:30pm College Women Basketball 692 Connecticut - Women 1st Half -550*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Louisville - Women

Fuking hell I was buried if I lost this one.

9/14 games today (64%) had a score in the first. That's now two straight days where on the norm more than double the games had a score in the first than what on average happens. I didn't want to hit 2 3-game chases this early. Will have to see how things end tomorrow. At the end of the day it's the series I'm looking at winning, not every individual game. Hopefully this last one saved anyone who tailed the others.

[greenhippo]

thats the last time I bet one of these don't know why I decided to start betting them anyway I've always considered them sucker bets and thats exactly what they are. I suggest you stay away from these 1st inning bets as well.

You're not lying, I was hoping to hit them early and work towards having enough information on my spreadsheets to make educated picks later in the season. Last couple of days have been outstanding in the number of games with scores in the first, over 60%.

[easyliving]

You're not lying, I was hoping to hit them early and work towards having enough information on my spreadsheets to make educated picks later in the season. Last couple of days have been outstanding in the number of games with scores in the first, over 60%.

you just might be hitting a rough patch even if you don't bet them keep the spreadsheet going and see how it does over a few weeks. a few days is nothing and it just could be variance.

[greenhippo]

That's what I'm thinking. Will be betting to get even for tomorrows two chases and not to make a profit, too much going on in the early stages of these games these particular series. After that it will be some spot bets until my spreadsheet has enough info for it to give me some good results. Will be going back to RLs, haven't bet many of those the last 3 days for some reason.

[greenhippo]

173914300-1	4/10/13 12:45am	$550.00	$50.00	$600.00	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9670 Los Angeles Lakers -1100*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets
173914001-1	4/10/13 12:30am	$10.78	$9.80	$20.58	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9669 New Orleans Hornets/Los Angeles Lakers Over 192½ -110*
173912491-1	4/10/13 12:00am	$11.00	$10.00	$21.00	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9670 Los Angeles Lakers -6½ -110*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets

Question: Was that first bet worth the risk? I took it at the 1:38 mark with Lakers up 96-88. I know crazier things have happened in the NBA but that bet seemed like an easy $50. Would most people throw it down for an easy score or is the risk not worth it?

[easyliving]

173914300-1	4/10/13 12:45am	$550.00	$50.00	$600.00	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9670 Los Angeles Lakers -1100*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets
173914001-1	4/10/13 12:30am	$10.78	$9.80	$20.58	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9669 New Orleans Hornets/Los Angeles Lakers Over 192½ -110*
173912491-1	4/10/13 12:00am	$11.00	$10.00	$21.00	Win	4/9/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9670 Los Angeles Lakers -6½ -110*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> New Orleans Hornets

Question: Was that first bet worth the risk? I took it at the 1:38 mark with Lakers up 96-88. I know crazier things have happened in the NBA but that bet seemed like an easy $50. Would most people throw it down for an easy score or is the risk not worth it?

usually i would say its not worth it but in such situation where the hornets got nothing to play for and lakers playing for a playoff spot its easy money and definitely worth it.

[greenhippo]

MLB Chase:

Game 1: 13-3-1
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 0-0

MLB spots plays: 0-1

NBA: 2-1

NCAAB: 1-0

Other: 1-0

[greenhippo]

Hey Hippo can you tell me your record so far I see you've been winning a lot and I would like to tail your picks just wanna know your record.Also can you tell me how this thread works. Thanks man

Record is in the post before this one. I typically do a 3 game series chase on the RL or 1st inning no score prop bets. Last two days have been a test of patience, 17 out of the last 25 games have had a score in the first inning. That's a 68% clip, on norm we're looking at just under 30%. As easyliving pointed out, it's probably variance and will correct itself at some point (I'm hoping today!) I can only imagine the money to have been made betting Yes on these prop bets the last two days. I did myself and I guess anyone else who has followed this or the first thread a disservice by not making any RL bets, all of my losses have been on the prop bets and the RL bets I've made have come back all winners so far. Probably a lack of concentration on my part (looking for that quick win instead of the smarter plays) one which I'll try and work on throughout the season. BR management has killed me each and everytime in the past, in all though I'm up over 40% of my starting roll since baseball's opening day with every bet here or not accounted for.

I'm always up for explanation or debate on what I should or shouldn't be looking for. I don't want anyone thinking because it's my thread they shouldn't be sharing their thoughts or opinions on how to better myself in the long run.

[greenhippo]

Game 3 Chases

No Score 1st inning Houston/Seattle
No Score 1st inning Pitt/Arizona

Spots plays

Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5


Both of the game 3 chases are for this time to break even and not end up a unit ahead. Last couple of days has been an ass kicking to anyone who bets No in these situations, it's still very early in the season and there will be time soon enough to get back on track with these bets.

Arizona started red hot at 5-1 and even prompted a few threads on here giving them some attention, they answered this by promptly losing two straight at home to Pittsburgh who came in with the worst offense in baseball (even worse than the Astros at the time) A team that has the potential of Arizona can't be swept at home by the Bucs. If Miley can go on the road and hold the Brewers' bats at bay, 6 innings 1ER 8ks, he should be able to control the Pitt bats. I don't see an issue with Arizona plating some runs with Sanchez hardly an ace of a pitcher. With the RL only at +110 it looks like the odds makers think the same.

Dodgers is more a case of a bounceback after losing yesterday to the then 1-win Padres. I couldn't name you two of San Diego's starters, the Dodgers probably can't either. Sults looked good at holding the Mets to no runs on the road but I think he takes a hard-luck loss tonight, could even see the bullpen losing it for the kid.

[ghislaine]

Going for the ! I never chase, just always flat bet everything, but have faith in You, You can turn it around and make some again
Let's see if You can keep hitting straight bets as hot as You started ! BOL tonight man and thanks for picks.

[shabang]

i'd have to say although I love doing what you did, it's prob not worth it. Ya never know what can happen at the end, especially when they start fouling like crazy.

[greenhippo]

Balk and a throwing error.....if there's any consolation at least it was Arizona putting up the run this time.

[ghislaine]

Yup, there goes
But hey, still three to go and liking the Dbacks rhytm here !
Need Barcelona to pick it up too, big bet riding there on Champions League soccer....

[greenhippo]

Looking like we'll still be perfect on the RLs going into tonight. Probably a big enough kick in the pants that I need to stick with more of a capping aspect

[2178ice]

Record is in the post before this one. I typically do a 3 game series chase on the RL or 1st inning no score prop bets. Last two days have been a test of patience, 17 out of the last 25 games have had a score in the first inning. That's a 68% clip, on norm we're looking at just under 30%. As easyliving pointed out, it's probably variance and will correct itself at some point (I'm hoping today!) I can only imagine the money to have been made betting Yes on these prop bets the last two days. I did myself and I guess anyone else who has followed this or the first thread a disservice by not making any RL bets, all of my losses have been on the prop bets and the RL bets I've made have come back all winners so far. Probably a lack of concentration on my part (looking for that quick win instead of the smarter plays) one which I'll try and work on throughout the season. BR management has killed me each and everytime in the past, in all though I'm up over 40% of my starting roll since baseball's opening day with every bet here or not accounted for.

I'm always up for explanation or debate on what I should or shouldn't be looking for. I don't want anyone thinking because it's my thread they shouldn't be sharing their thoughts or opinions on how to better myself in the long run.

Awesome Hippo thank you so much for explaining all of this to me. I will be tailing your picks from now on. So should I wait until Game 1 Chases and can I just start on the run line bets right now??? Thanks man greatly appreciated!

[greenhippo]

Run line for the Arizona/Pitt and LA/SDP are spot plays so I'm not chasing either

[greenhippo]

174078945-1	4/11/13 12:41am	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9719 San Antonio Spurs +11½ -115*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Denver Nuggets
174065063-1	4/10/13 11:28pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Loss	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9720 Denver Nuggets 1st Half -1½ -105*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
174064967-1	4/10/13 11:27pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9720 Denver Nuggets -3 -110*<small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Antonio Spurs
174060690-1	4/10/13 11:09pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9719 San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets 1st Half Under 79½ -115*
174057207-1	4/10/13 10:58pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9719 San Antonio Spurs 1st Quarter -2000* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Denver Nuggets
174053970-1	4/10/13 10:46pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9719 San Antonio Spurs/Denver Nuggets Under 199½ -110*
174045866-1	4/10/13 10:11pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/10/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9709 Brooklyn Nets/Boston Celtics Under 195½ +100*

I highly recommend Live betting if it's an option where you play at. So many instances to make real quick $.

[greenhippo]

Hope the god damn Dodgers lose now. Fukkin hell. Lose a damn bet on a balk, a throwing error and a passed ball. Unfukkinreal.

[greenhippo]

Fukkin dogshit

[greenhippo]

MLB Chase:

Game 1: 13-3-1
Game 2: 1-2
Game 3: 1-1

MLB spots plays: 1-2

NBA: 2-1

NCAAB: 1-0

Other: 1-0

[greenhippo]

Hardluck 3 losses the previous 3 days, will see if it's on our side today. Going with something new here, after reading The Giant's comment the other day about taking both sides at +$ I'm going to try this for today. This will be a high risk proposition so tailing this time might not be the best option. That being said this is what I'm going with today


Mariners RL (+140)
Rangers ML (+146)

Our bet is that the outcome of this game is not a 1-run Mariners win. They can win by anything more than 1 OR lose by ANY score and we come out at least .40 ahead. I'm going to start off betting half on each so it wont turn into anything crazy.

[boeing power]

Terrible idea hippo.

-ev.

[greenhippo]

Unluckily I take boeing's word to mean something so will probably take these bets off the board after today. Don't want to risk fukkin someone over.

[shooms79]

yeah..thats not the way to bet long term. say +.40 but if it does end a 1 run game, u will be -2 units. u would have to win 5x at +.40 to make up 1 loss.

[greenhippo]

Angels ML

Trying to avoid the sweep at home, the juice -126 isn't bad in this spot.

[greenhippo]

Bulls live looks good at +280

[Frisco]

Bulls live looks good at +280

You missed them @ +700. I put a small play on that and a unit on them +14.5

[greenhippo]

174173800-1	4/11/13 8:45pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9502 Chicago Bulls 1st Half Over 47 -115* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks
174172450-1	4/11/13 8:29pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9502 Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter +14½ +110* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks

Was able to come out with these little nuggets. I mentioned it before in this thread, Live betting is an almost must for some very easy money. I'm going to post all of my Live bets starting the first day of baseball season, very easy to pick your spots.

[greenhippo]

174218244-1	4/12/13 12:16am	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9503 Oklahoma City Thunder 3rd Quarter -4½ -120* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors
174208509-1	4/11/13 11:14pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 10:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9503 Oklahoma City Thunder/Golden State Warriors 1st Half Over 109½ -115*
174197863-1	4/11/13 10:32pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Loss	4/11/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9501 New York Knicks +380* <small>vs</small> Chicago Bulls
174180114-1	4/11/13 9:25pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 8:05pm NBA Basketball 501 New York Knicks/Chicago Bulls 3rd Quarter Over 48 -110*
174173800-1	4/11/13 8:45pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9502 Chicago Bulls 1st Half Over 47 -115* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks
174172450-1	4/11/13 8:29pm	$.00	$.00	$.00	Win	4/11/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Basketball 9502 Chicago Bulls 1st Quarter +14½ +110* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks

I also have Golden State live over 102, so we'll see how that one pans out. Overall a good night.

[greenhippo]

And now Warriors +17 at even money