D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

[l3randonf]

What about my thoughts on the Stars vs Sharks tonight? What is your opinion?

Also, where do you go to find stats? Or, do you simply look at the games and use your knowledge of the teams and their trends to make your decisions? Sportsbook offers a pretty in depth trend and matchup analysis for free that I follow but wondering if there is something better.

[Overbettor]

Then you clearly don't want my opinion.

I see this:

In Memphis the Grizz play stifling defense. This is a VERY important game, and if you know about important games between good teams yhat know how to play D, they generally lock it down (Memphis' Modus operandi).

Bet it how you like, and you will notice it is a NO PLAY for me.....but I lean under and think you are putting your cash in an unnnecessarily -EV position.

Cheers

You stated in post #343 that you lean over 181 and said here you lean under so i'm curious as to which is correct. I check your thread daily and value your opinion accordingly. Thanks

[Overbettor]

Nm bro, I see you have been bombarded with questions today. Ill go with my own gut/numbers as usual and go back to lurking. Awesome job though, carry on

[Dollars2Donuts]

What about my thoughts on the Stars vs Sharks tonight? What is your opinion?

Also, where do you go to find stats? Or, do you simply look at the games and use your knowledge of the teams and their trends to make your decisions? Sportsbook offers a pretty in depth trend and matchup analysis for free that I follow but wondering if there is something better.

If I HAD to make a play here the best value is Dallas including ot IMO. I almost put $50 on it, but it just wasnt juicy enough for me.

I get my info from all over, but I do NOT overanalyze. I am an intelligent guy and have 35 years of being a stats guru behind me. As a 10 year old kid I used to wait for the paper every Tuesday so I could break down the entire NHL mathematically.

I do not do any of this any more. It is a combination of trends, experience and talent, but it goes WAY beyond that. A person with enough experience and intelligence, that has an eye for these kind of things need to go with their initial feelings on games. I am not saying I am any sort of genius, but I think your mind needs to work a certain way....a contrarian way. If you look at last night in the NBA I took a ton of games that the public wouldn't be on....not because I avoid the public, but because I saw the value.....

I swear, if I got too deep into any game I could ALWAYS convince myself to switch sides.....do NOT overthink things, it is a killer.

[Dollars2Donuts]

You stated in post #343 that you lean over 181 and said here you lean under so i'm curious as to which is correct. I check your thread daily and value your opinion accordingly. Thanks

Lol, it's all good.....my original lean was UNDER, just a mistake in my post. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

Thanks for your questions though...and I hope you find some value in the thread.

I think I am getting more questions than normal today because I only put up 9 games. Generally I cap between 14 and 20 (sometimes as many as 35 on a Saturday or Sunday)....people may be confused.

To be honest, it is just not a great day for my eye.....and those days I am best not to push and hunt for value....better to wait until tomorrow when better and juicier lines are there.

Cheers and welcome to the thread!!

[Overbettor]

Thanks for the response and apparently i didn't check back far enough because i didn't notice your plays. Already had the tigers and the penguins though! Gl today

[bosshugo]

is there still value in reds at -1.5 +120?

[Seaweed]

Anyone here know how rollover works? lets say you have to rollover 70 5x. How do you go about doing that? If you bet 70 5 times on heavy favorites does that count?

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yeaaa dont try and bash someones comprehension skills and then say you dont want to get into a petty battle.. 2nd time being hypocritical.. He obviously knows what the word means and if he applied it to sports betting he should have known better in the 1st place.. as far as the newness and lack of posts I was simply stating maybe it would be smart to keep the mouth shut for a little while and listen.. You sounds so nerdy trying to hop in and police any situation.. fukk off..

D2D.. I think the Rays are some good value at +110 Price has done pretty well against the BoSox and well Lester hasn't been against the rays

Jon Lester has lost his L3 home starts vs Rays, longest such losing streak to the club in his career

David Price has a 2.22 ERA and .222 opp BA at Fenway Park - lowest of any active starter (min. 5 starts)

David Price went 10-2 w/2.51 ERA vs AL East opponents in 2012 (33-11 career)

Any thoughts out there?

I hope you stayed off of this.....not saying I knew it was a loser, but at best it was a coin flip. No value on either side.

[bald_guy]

I get my info from all over, but I do NOT overanalyze. I am an intelligent guy and have 35 years of being a stats guru behind me. As a 10 year old kid I used to wait for the paper every Tuesday so I could break down the entire NHL mathematically.

I do not do any of this any more. It is a combination of trends, experience and talent, but it goes WAY beyond that. A person with enough experience and intelligence, that has an eye for these kind of things need to go with their initial feelings on games. I am not saying I am any sort of genius, but I think your mind needs to work a certain way....a contrarian way. If you look at last night in the NBA I took a ton of games that the public wouldn't be on....not because I avoid the public, but because I saw the value.....

I swear, if I got too deep into any game I could ALWAYS convince myself to switch sides.....do NOT overthink things, it is a killer.

I just want to say I find this very fascinating. I like reading autobiography's of famous people, and find it interesting how you are so accurate with so many different sports. This sure sheds more light on the subject for sure. Appreciate the information.

You are new to this board (60 + days), and I know you watched and analyzed sports for a long time, but are you new to actually betting on sports? New to 5dimes? Also, how much money did you start with 60 + days ago? I looked back at your first thread, but couldn't find out how much you started with. I thought I read it before, but when I looked couldn't find the exact number.

Thanks for your picks, as always.

[Overbettor]

Aww screw it, I must know how and why your known as DOLLARS TO DONUTS?? Does the name hold any real significance for you? I've been wondering this for 2months now!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Aww screw it, I must know how and why your known as DOLLARS TO DONUTS?? Does the name hold any real significance for you? I've been wondering this for 2months now!

That's's hilarious. There is an old saying, if you were VERY confident in a wager or something happening you would say 'I would bet dollars to donuts that (blank) this will happen!'.

The saying bascially means that you would put up money (important) to donuts (worth nothing). This was back in the early 1900's and clearly a donut was worth nothing......

D2D

[Overbettor]

Haha, thanks! I know I've heard that before and truthfully can't believe I forgot and/or didn't make the connection.

[Dollars2Donuts]

To be honest, I may as well have not bet the board today. I knew something wasn't quite right. We finished with an even record and down a few bucks of juice, but hopefully I warned some people away from some of the 'bad' action out there!

D2D

[l3randonf]

Stars came through as underdogs AGAIN tonight! $$

[Jayvegas420]

One bad day does not a loser make
!

[Seaweed]

One bad day does not a loser make
!

One bad sentence structure makes not a less better man.

[Jayvegas420]

Really?
With the grammar Weed?

[O]

D2D - You kill it man. Short story. You are a winner. NOT because you release great picks, but because you play the game and don't let anyone rattle your cage........ all while being a true gentleman. You don't boast about your winning percentage or pound your chest about a "pod" or challenge the trolls. Keep up the good work, and keep a straight head. You obviously already won at the game of life. Keep it up. Godspeed.

PS- The part I love the most is that EVERY other thread has a hater on it if they are winning (or losing)...... except this one. Funny

Love your brother people.

[ChicagoBlackhawk]

D2D is solid as they come. Never seen someone bet so much a day and win at his rate. Keep it up Bud. and just like I told nino...

[Kpn]

Early line on Tampa v Buffalo has tampa as the underdog, should I hit now before it changes?

[Minnesota Niice]

I hope you stayed off of this.....not saying I knew it was a loser, but at best it was a coin flip. No value on either side.

Price was dominant but your right about the non timely hitting of the Rays.. I think they are around 3 for their last 35 with RISP past 3 games.. OUUUUUCH!

[MonkeyMoney]

D2D i am still new to this whole forum "game" so i apologize.

lets win together!

[Dollars2Donuts]

An end to the winning, BUT I am going to take a couple of things out of today.

1. Generally when I see a day that I don't really get excited about I go about things anyway.....I decide what I like best and roll with that. Today, instead, I just bet what I really liked and didn't worry about making my normal volume of picks. I am going to continue this trend and on days like today you may start to see less bets than this...

2. I get more excited about managing the bad days than I do about having big ones.....this may be the key to being a long term winner...make sure those bad days are not devastating!

Today:

4-4

- $30


Totals (62 documented days):

449 - 366 - 22

+ $ 10,735.10


Play of the Day (NO CHANGE):

26 - 13

+ $4442.43

[bald_guy]

That bad day wasn't really so bad. If that's a bad day for you then I'm glad I'm following you.

In a way however all them picks stopped it from being a bad day. What if you only picked the losers? Then it would have been much worse.

I hope you don't change too much just cause you lost a nominal amount of money. What you been doing is working big time.

[AlessandroEgg]

Reds got me good

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yesterday was very interesting.....we went 4-4 but the craziest thing is that I recommended that 4 different people stay away from bets that they liked (Canucks, Grizz/Clips OVER, TB with Price starting and I recommended that somebody take Dallas over San Jose)....I wish I had played those 4 because they all came in the way I was leaning.....crazy. If the Capitals had been able to hold their 5-1 lead and not go to OT the day would have been very solid, but all is good. As I mentioned before, it is all about managing the 'off' days.

Anyway, on another note, today reminds me of yesterday. There is nothing that stands out as amazing value, but I do like these picks to a degree. Again, at this point there is no POD, as I just don't see anything that really gets me going. As always this may change as the day goes on, but I doubt it.

I will be heading to the airport at 3pm and be on the road for the next 10 days in the wonderfull metropolis's of Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg (where I spent my first 32 years).

Today's picks:

174611996-1	4/14/13 10:59am	$130.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 55 Detroit Red Wings -130* <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators
174611509-1	4/14/13 10:53am	$100.00	$109.00		Pending	4/14/13 1:35pm MLB Baseball 954 Washington Nationals -1 +109* <small>vs</small> Atlanta Braves (P Maholm - L must Start G Gonzalez - L must Start)
174611509-2	4/14/13 10:53am	$163.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 3:35pm MLB Baseball 972 Los Angeles Angels -1 -163* <small>vs</small> Houston Astros (P Humber - R must Start C Wilson - L must Start)
174611231-1	4/14/13 10:50am	$120.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 2:20pm Reduced Baseball 959 San Francisco Giants/Chicago Cubs Under 10 -120* (T Lincecum - R must Start E Jackson - R must Start)
174611231-2	4/14/13 10:50am	$100.00	$105.00		Pending	4/14/13 2:10pm Reduced Baseball 969 Toronto Blue Jays/Kansas City Royals Over 8½ +105* (B Morrow - R must Start E Santana - R must Start)
174611029-1	4/14/13 10:48am	$102.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 3:35pm Reduced Basketball 705 Indiana Pacers +3½ -102* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks
174611029-2	4/14/13 10:48am	$53.50	$50.00		Pending	4/14/13 3:35pm Reduced Basketball 707 Brooklyn Nets -3½ -107* <small>vs</small> Toronto Raptors
174611029-3	4/14/13 10:48am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 5:05pm Reduced Basketball 709 Portland Trailblazers/Denver Nuggets Over 209 -105*
174611029-4	4/14/13 10:48am	$108.00	$100.00		Pending	4/14/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 715 San Antonio Spurs -5 -108* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers

[Dollars2Donuts]

Early line on Tampa v Buffalo has tampa as the underdog, should I hit now before it changes?

I have this game as a NO PLAY. TB is not a good team, major problems on defense, they made a huge comeback yesterday and lost in OT, they have nothing to play for except individual stats AND they are on the road against a team that has been crapping the bed and needs a win, not to make the playoffs but to salvage their manhood. There is no value in either side here.


D2D

[hunsi]

Why not under 5 on Blackhawks vs Blues? Their keepers is going a record 4th consecutive shut out?

[Dollars2Donuts]

I just want to say I find this very fascinating. I like reading autobiography's of famous people, and find it interesting how you are so accurate with so many different sports. This sure sheds more light on the subject for sure. Appreciate the information.

You are new to this board (60 + days), and I know you watched and analyzed sports for a long time, but are you new to actually betting on sports? New to 5dimes? Also, how much money did you start with 60 + days ago? I looked back at your first thread, but couldn't find out how much you started with. I thought I read it before, but when I looked couldn't find the exact number.

Thanks for your picks, as always.

I will be as accurate as possible, but some of the dates, etc may be a little skewed.

As for sports betting, I have never and I mean never done any sort of sports betting with a book, local or off-shore until 105 days ago. I had always thought about it, but to be honest I gambled in so many different venues already, maybe my life just didn't have room for sports gambling as well.

I began playing poker in 1992 when I was heavily involved in the world of 'pool'. I played 8-ball and 9-ball at a pretty high level and when in tournaments (5 days a week for years) we would all play poker between matches as there was nothing else to do. What this meant was that I was well ahead of the curve when mainstream poker hit the street.....so for a number of years poker was my thing. I never really managed my money properly, but it came in fast enough that I didn't really need to. Don't get me wrong, I was never even a 10-20 player, just a good smaller player that killed it at the low levels and spent the rest fast enough that I never really jumped to bigger games.

Three years ago, or so, I found myself tired of poker.....I no longer enjoyed the game, win or lose and that was when I decided to move on, thus creating a gap in my life.....(which I am in the process of filling!)

For the last 5 years I have been in an NFL pool with a bunch of guys that an ex girlfriend introduced me to. Great guys....good times and of course we would get together all the time to watch games on Sundays at a local watering hole. Now, this is really where it started. What happened was that over the 5 season period everybody stopped wagering with me. They literally were saying 'Brett hits at 100% and he just doesn't lose',and my action with these guys soon dried up. Not that it was big action, but it was entertaining.

This year (towards the end of the NFL season) one of the guys (after me making another couple of sick predictions) told me I was stupid for not wagering off-shore. I kind of gave it a little thought for a couple of weeks and then......

I started approximately 105 days ago on Bodog. I made a deposit of $250, and started betting games for anywhere between $20 and $35 (that was the big bet, $35). I found that I was hitting at a pretty remakable rate and my bankroll started to grow. For the first couple of weeks I was putting 50-100% of the bank out there each day, and was hitting very nicely (I seemed to kill the NFL).

45 days in I came upon SBR. It was a fluke. I Googled 'is it possible to win at sports wagering long term' and an article popped up, I followed it and that's when I joined here.

At 45 days I had turned the $250 into $5k or so.....going from memory here, so this may not be exact. As soon as I started wagering here people told me that I was silly to be using Bodog and that 5dimes was way better. I deposited another $500 at 5dimnes and then went about taking out the $7k I had amasssed by that point at Bodog (I had increased from $5k to $7k in that week or week and a half). That $7k went directly into a new 328i and I hoped to keep winning at 5dimes.

I will say, I was still skeptical of my skills. I thought of it like this: 'I won the $6250 (initial $250 plus the deposit of $500 on 5dimes taken out of the $7k) and if I lose this next $500 I will just stop sports wagering, up nicely!`

Well, that next $500 deposit, over the last 2 months has grown to just under $10k, and it seems that I have found some traction. I got worried a few weeks ago when I had a rough 7 days.....but even that was pretty minor in the grand scheme of things.

Anyway....I know this has been long and drawn out....I hope somebody found it moderately interesting. I will say one thing.....I have always loved to write and this is a new medium for me. I love the feedback, I love that somebody may actually be using this to help them out as well. I will point out again, for anyone that is worried that I will start to `charge`for my picks...that will never happen (hell, maybe the winning won`t continue anyway), but I do hope that the forum holds my interest. I think the only way I would ever tire of posting here is if it got boring....and frankly I just don`t see that happening....right now I wake up and cannot wait to check out the thread.

GL to everyone today!


D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Why not under 5 on Blackhawks vs Blues? Their keepers is going a record 4th consecutive shut out?

There is EVERY chance that this turns into a 5-4 game. Both teams are ready to start playing loose, especially now with the Blackhawks capturing the Central Division Title. This MAY be a tightly played game, but my feeling is there is every chance that we see fire-house hockey from these two teams today.

My real prediction is 4-3 St. Louis, which may happen in a SO.


D2D

[O]

GL today boys.

[AlessandroEgg]

Feeling Cardinals Under 8 at +101. They haven't allowed a run since Tuesday in the 4th inning. Thoughts?

[vancityswag]

any thoughts on the heat game? revenge factor a play? maybe a live play when miami is down 5-6 after the first like they always are?

[SpreadSniper]

i like this Donuts guy..... let me know next time you come through the Peg if you wanna have a beer and a bet..... you can drink on the floor @ the Regent & McPhillips now

P.S - not sure who's playing for the Nets yet, but you prolly knew that