D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

**Sick_in_the_Head** · 05-16-13, 10:23 AM

Damn!!!! Nice play! Unbelievable.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by thienlong82

Nice record

Thanks man, there have been many ups and downs during my 3 months here. I think what everyone needs to remember is that is the way sports wagering works.

What I have seen is this.....I have three or four killer days in a row, then a TON of new people hop on....then I have an average or crappy day or two and they go bankrupt, then we hit our stride again. Our winning days have always been better than our losing days (otherwise this would be a waste of time) and people need to understand that if they decide to tail they need to do it with proper discipline. Now, I am not saying that after three good days it switches....if people know anything about statistics these things are purely random....just like flipping a coin (except at a different percentage!!).

Originally posted by UsManyDead

Hy. Man you are good, but you are not only good at betting but also very kind to share it with everybody. Where have I been all this time?! You are definitely worth following. I had an NBA system this season, but it wasn't profitable in the end. Now I understand why. I tried not to bet a lot of games, I thought selecting 2-3 games per night at a good S/R should do the job. But in the end all thing come round back, and all the good S/R gets to near 50%-53%. And that's when you see that you make small money or you're in red. After a while I searched and saw that betting lots of games per day is the way to make money. You only need to hit them at around 53% and make little money from each day.
You are onto something big here. I am very curios how are you able to select so many games from different sports. Do you have a system that you use? Or is this all from your knowledge of the sport?
Thanks and GL.

First off, I must say I am definitely not a system guy, especially when it comes to mathematical systems, they do not work....ever. Some systems can if they have to do with the psychology of a team or players (and I am working on one ini MLB right now, but not betting it yet). 99% of my plays are from a combination of my head and my heart, and while a lot of people will tell you I am guessing, that is purely crap. Having a feeling about a game, if you have enough experience and knowhow can be as good as any other indicator....reason being, that sometimes our brains tell us things subconsciously that we do not see on paper.

As for betting a lot of games being the way to go....well, I am sold on that for me, but to be straight up I do not think it is for everyone....UNLESS their knowledge of sports is acute and they can prove that picking a lot of games can be profitable for them. I believe that I could pick at 58% picking JUST my favourite plays.....but for me I would rather play volume, hit 55% but weigh my bets accordingly and take a TON of the variance out of my days.

Anyway, welcome to the thread....I hope you stick around as I always value opinions and valuable input!

Originally posted by Sick_in_the_Head

Damn!!!! Nice play! Unbelievable.

And thanks man....another good start.

D2D

PS, regular plays for tonight will be up in the next hour or so.

**bald_guy** · 05-16-13, 11:05 AM

Folks, this is based on a TRUE story!!

Very early this smorming while still in bed, I seen D2D's ATP plays, and already had my Mac Mini shut down, so did them on my iphone flipping back and forth between Safafi windows. I only bet a small %'s of his units. When I did the confirm, I seen I had the right amounts on all but the Beniot Paire game, there I bet the entire 20 dollars by mistake. I had a choice to make, put them all back in again, or just accept that I did the full amount on a long shot. Well, folks, being lazy paid off big time!!

I didn't get to watch the game or even know of this great event till I went to my account for a nice surprise!! I want to thank D2D for posting this great play and Mr. Paire for kicking some butt on a player he was suppose to get humiliated by. Great job the both of you!!

**hopper** · 05-16-13, 11:07 AM

Wanted to mention that Gulbis is a good pick. He is good, underrated and with a lot of potentional. I didnt believe that he is +5 against nadal.

**enasty1** · 05-16-13, 11:09 AM

good luck

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:10 AM

Originally posted by bald_guy

Folks, this is based on a TRUE story!!

Very early this smorming while still in bed, I seen D2D's ATP plays, and already had my Mac Mini shut down, so did them on my iphone flipping back and forth between Safafi windows. I only bet a small %'s of his units. When I did the confirm, I seen I had the right amounts on all but the Beniot Paire game, there I bet the entire 20 dollars by mistake. I had a choice to make, put them all back in again, or just accept that I did the full amount on a long shot. Well, folks, being lazy paid off big time!!

I didn't get to watch the game or even know of this great event till I went to my account for a nice surprise!! I want to thank D2D for posting this great play and Mr. Paire for kicking some butt on a player he was suppose to get humiliated by. Great job the both of you!!

Thanks for the props and YOU ARE WELCOME! I swear, when I placed the bet I wavered between $50 and $20 because when I like an underdog I usually bet half of whatever I bet on the +Games Line, and of course I bet $100 there. I decided to protect my winnings and keep it light with the $20 wager. Disappointing, but again, to me it is just proof to myself that I really have overcome past issues with bankroll management.....and for me that is a bigger win than any tennis match....

Good Job Paire!!! Del Potro is notoriously lazy, especially in smaller events, and is coming off of a lay-off......I am just glad it paid off and I hope a lot of people jumped on.

Cheers BG

**thes0vereign** · 05-16-13, 11:12 AM

Granollers only needs to win 1 more game for the O22.5 to be locked up. Well, as long as nobody retires.

EDIT: And there it is.

**Sick_in_the_Head** · 05-16-13, 11:14 AM

D2D, when are your NBA,MLB picks coming out?

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by thes0vereign

Granollers only needs to win 1 more game for the O22.5 to be locked up. Well, as long as nobody retires.

EDIT: And there it is.

Yep.....now we need him to regain form....if Granollers continues like this the bet goes 1-1 with a small juice loss.....go Granollers!!

**HoldinMygroin** · 05-16-13, 11:15 AM

It says on livescore walkover on the game between Ferrer and Kohl. What does that mean to our bet?

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Sick_in_the_Head

D2D, when are your NBA,MLB picks coming out?

Within the hour.....Bruins and San Anotnio were posted yesterday for today.....

**bald_guy** · 05-16-13, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Thanks for the props and YOU ARE WELCOME! I swear, when I placed the bet I wavered between $50 and $20 because when I like an underdog I usually bet half of whatever I bet on the +Games Line, and of course I bet $100 there. I decided to protect my winnings and keep it light with the $20 wager. Disappointing, but again, to me it is just proof to myself that I really have overcome past issues with bankroll management.....and for me that is a bigger win than any tennis match....

Good Job Paire!!! Del Potro is notoriously lazy, especially in smaller events, and is coming off of a lay-off......I am just glad it paid off and I hope a lot of people jumped on.

Cheers BG

Well, you almost always do 100 or 50 for each bet. The 20 is what threw me off and made me wager the full amount.

So very glad you decided to go light, which made me make a mistake, which gave my account the shoot in the arm it needed.

**bostonphoenix** · 05-16-13, 11:24 AM

Walkover - One of the players withdrew before the match began. 5d refunded the bet.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:28 AM

179891530-1

5/16/13 12:27pm

$145.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 954 Pittsburgh Pirates -145* vs Milwaukee Brewers (H Burgos - R must Start F Liriano - L must Start)

179891530-2

5/16/13 12:27pm

$183.00

$150.00

Pending

5/16/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 962 New York Yankees -1 -122* vs Seattle Mariners (A Harang - R must Start A Pettitte - L must Start)

179891530-3

5/16/13 12:27pm

$102.75

$75.00

Pending

5/16/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 964 Tampa Bay Rays -137* vs Boston Red Sox (F Doubront - L must Start A Cobb - R must Start)

179891182-1

5/16/13 12:20pm

$145.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 10 Los Angeles Kings -145* vs San Jose Sharks

179891080-1

5/16/13 12:18pm

$109.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 8:00pm Reduced Basketball 739 Indiana Pacers +5 -109* vs New York Knicks

179891080-2

5/16/13 12:18pm

$105.00

$100.00

Pending

5/16/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs/Golden State Warriors Under 194½ -105*

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:31 AM

Not sure why the above got all messed up.....picks continued here:

179747582-2	5/15/13 11:42am	$130.00	$100.00	Pending	5/16/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 6 Boston Bruins -130* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers

179747475-2	5/15/13 11:40am	$108.00	$100.00	Pending	5/16/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs -1 -108* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors

179891545-1

5/16/13 12:27pm

$100.00

$110.00

Pending

5/16/13 10:10pm Reduced Baseball 959 Washington Nationals/San Diego Padres Over 7 +110* (S Strasburg - R must Start E Volquez - R must Start)

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:36 AM

Originally posted by HoldinMygroin

It says on livescore walkover on the game between Ferrer and Kohl. What does that mean to our bet?

Originally posted by bostonphoenix

Walkover - One of the players withdrew before the match began. 5d refunded the bet.

That is sad....Kohlschreiber was a great pick there (my highest graded wager of the day)......Ferrer hasnt been himself and in fact I was wondering if he was injured. I am sure he decided to take it easy with the French starting soon....was hoping he could have at least let Kohl walk all over him.

Of course, that is if FERRER withdrew....at this point I do not know which player retired.

Meh....

**alamo** · 05-16-13, 11:38 AM

I can confirm Kohls retired.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by alamo

I can confirm Kohls retired.

Ok, thanks....that sucks.

Also, an update...Granollers has broken back in the third set and we are back on serve....

**bald_guy** · 05-16-13, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by alamo

I can confirm Kohls retired.

116 P.Kohlschreiber Games Won +4 -120
Due to we did the + 4 instead of money line, i'm fairly sure we should get that money back, ie, push.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by bald_guy

116 P.Kohlschreiber Games Won +4 -120
Due to we did the + 4 instead of money line, i'm fairly sure we should get that money back, ie, push.

It is already refunded....also, any time a match is retired BEFORE the first serve, whether the straight ML or not I believe all bets are refunded. After the first serve that is a different matter.

TO · 05-16-13, 11:52 AM

Whats the reason behid the higher wager; bruins, pitt, kings and yankees.
the reason you picked then so i have a sense of information if you dont mind

**thes0vereign** · 05-16-13, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

It is already refunded....also, any time a match is retired BEFORE the first serve, whether the straight ML or not I believe all bets are refunded. After the first serve that is a different matter.

This. Although you really need to read your sportsbooks' policy o

A "Walk Over Winner" (player concedes before a match) and matches which do not complete the first set are graded no action. Any match concluding after the first set is completed will be graded with the advancing player as the winner.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by TO

Whats the reason behid the higher wager; bruins, pitt, kings and yankees.
the reason you picked then so i have a sense of information if you dont mind

Why are your posts always so large....do you hit the space bar a number of times or something...I wonder.

Those are just my higher rated games.....I dont mind going into a game or two here and there when responding to specific questions, but there is no way I can post that for each and every game I play....as you probably know I have graded 65 plays in the last 3 days alone....it would take me 10 hours a day to do that.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 12:00 PM

Late play alert!!

179893961-1

5/16/13 12:59pm

$51.00

$50.00

Pending

5/16/13 1:00pm ATP Tennis 140 R.Gasquet Games Won -3½ -102* vs J.Janowicz Games Won

Of Gasquets 21 wins this year 17 are by more than 3.5 games......and he knows he has next to no chance at the French. I think he plays well here and covers.....still a one unit bet because it is so last minute!!

**bald_guy** · 05-16-13, 12:03 PM

I think all that varies a lot book to book. I know Bovada (Bodog) treats all retirements as a PUSH. 5 dimes treats ML as action and point spread as a PUSH. 5 dimes might have done a refund due to the match not starting, but I wouldn't bank on it. I'm glad we did the point spread just in case.

Sooner or later, I'm sure we will find out for sure.

If you think the player is prone to retirements and such, you might want to use this information into your strategy . (which I'm sure you are already doing)

**thes0vereign** · 05-16-13, 12:03 PM

Decided to make a little parlay with the strong plays we share [SAS, IND, BOS]. Taking them all on the ML equates to +808 odds.

Putting 1/4 unit down to win 2. If it cashes, I know we had a great day!

EDIT: bald_guy, check my post above. 5Dimes only takes action on the ML if the first set is completed.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 12:06 PM

Also adding:

179894358-1

5/16/13 1:06pm

$60.00

$50.00

Pending

5/16/13 3:00pm ATP Tennis 145 G.Simon Games Won/R.Federer Games Won Under 21 -120*

**ticklz** · 05-16-13, 12:07 PM

Thanks for the Granolers Pick, great Call

**thes0vereign** · 05-16-13, 12:08 PM

Granollers with the come back! 5-1-1 on the early ATP plays, my man!

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by ticklz

Thanks for the Granolers Pick, great Call

Originally posted by thes0vereign

Granollers with the come back! 6-1 on the early ATP plays, my man!

Thanks boys....that brings our 4 day total to 49-20-3 or 71% over 72 plays.....now that is fun!!

Anyway, dont want to jinx the later plays....so GL everyone!

**latino61992** · 05-16-13, 12:25 PM

hey d2d im looking to follow all ur plays from now on.. ive been following a few of them not all. but i wanna follow all of them, im not a big better i only have about 160 in my account right now thanks to ur tennis plays earlier today. How much would u recommend me betting per game.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by latino61992

hey d2d im looking to follow all ur plays from now on.. ive been following a few of them not all. but i wanna follow all of them, im not a big better i only have about 160 in my account right now thanks to ur tennis plays earlier today. How much would u recommend me betting per game.

One unit should = $.80 according to proper BM as I have laid it out for my betting strategy....but of course there is no way you go that light. I would probably treat each unit as $4 and hope like hell we keep winning to get you to a better lvel of BR. The problem is that betting so many plays and with such a small bank....well, you open yourself to variance, or if you want to start at $.80 then you will be in for a LONG haul.

When I first deposited $300 (looked back last night, previously thought it was $250) I bet between $10 and $30 a game, but of course at that point I had no strategy....and I went on an immediate heater and had it up to $1000 in 3 days......then kept betting $20 to $30 until my BR supported moving up again.

GL my friend....GL.

**tto827** · 05-16-13, 12:47 PM

Did you guys see this?

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**Dollars2Donuts** · 05-16-13, 01:03 PM

Hilarious.....I like the fact that Troicki stood up for himself....I wish he had even bit a little more of a dick, but you can tell he actually is pretty controlled....

It is quite obvious that the ball is in, from the mark and from the replay....nuts.

**latino61992** · 05-16-13, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

One unit should = $.80 according to proper BM as I have laid it out for my betting strategy....but of course there is no way you go that light. I would probably treat each unit as $4 and hope like hell we keep winning to get you to a better lvel of BR. The problem is that betting so many plays and with such a small bank....well, you open yourself to variance, or if you want to start at $.80 then you will be in for a LONG haul.

When I first deposited $300 (looked back last night, previously thought it was $250) I bet between $10 and $30 a game, but of course at that point I had no strategy....and I went on an immediate heater and had it up to $1000 in 3 days......then kept betting $20 to $30 until my BR supported moving up again.

GL my friend....GL.

thanks.. im gonna try using the 4 dollars as a unit, hopefully it goes well