Any MLB plays for this morning D2D? Looking at the reds RL and Orioles.
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Ive been screaming 'Schreiber!' in a german accent at my tv for the past hour. What a fun bet that was.Comment -
Very light day for me in MLB actually. I cannot find ONE play that I would value any higher than 1 unit. Same sort of thing in the NBA and NHL.....just nothing really all that great out there.....somne solid stuff, but certainly no 4-5 unit wagers to be placed today.
179747308-1 5/15/13 11:38am $60.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Over 8½ -120* (D Axelrod - R must Start M Pelfrey - R must Start) 179747246-1 5/15/13 11:37am $50.00 $59.50 Pending 5/15/13 1:10pm MLB Baseball 915 Chicago White Sox +119* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Twins (D Axelrod - R must Start M Pelfrey - R must Start) 179747246-2 5/15/13 11:37am $52.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 3:35pm MLB Baseball 917 Texas Rangers -104* <small>vs</small> Oakland Athletics (A Ogando - R must Start D Straily - R must Start) 179747246-3 5/15/13 11:37am $50.00 $57.50 Pending 5/15/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 921 Boston Red Sox +115* <small>vs</small> Tampa Bay Rays (J Lester - L must Start D Price - L must Start) 179747246-4 5/15/13 11:37am $55.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 930 Toronto Blue Jays -110* <small>vs</small> San Francisco Giants (R Vogelsong - R must Start R Ortiz - R must Start) 179747475-1 5/15/13 11:40am $105.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 737 Memphis Grizzlies +4½ -105* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder 179747632-1 5/15/13 11:43am $117.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 8 Chicago Blackhawks (1st 60 min) -½ -117* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings (1st 60 min) Comment -
Also adding (for tomorrow and for series bets):
179747582-1 5/15/13 11:42am $255.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 846 Chicago Blackhawks (Series) -255* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings (Series) 179747475-2 5/15/13 11:40am $108.00 $100.00 Pending 5/16/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs -1 -108* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors 179747582-2 5/15/13 11:42am $130.00 $100.00 Pending 5/16/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 6 Boston Bruins -130* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers Comment -
GL today D2D...on opposite sides today with the Memphis game...GL though.Comment -
Thanks.....now I didn't bet a ton on that game, just felt I needed something going and am a little wary of everything else in the NBA right now.
The only thing I will say is this.....in the memphis game EVERY game is a pick'em with Memphis being slightly ahead IMO, and home court is not as big a deal as it is in some series....in fact I believe that OKC feels more pressure in front of their home fans since losing Westbrook.....I cannot refuse 4.5 points for a team that wins this game outright 40% of the time and will be in a battle until the end (close game) another 40% of the time.....seems like a no brainer to me, but again, kept it to 2 units.Comment -
Your rationale for taking the points on the better team makes a lot of sense, I just can't see OKC losing this game and think OKC will cover for some reason. Do you like any of the total tonight? I'm thinking under 182 for the Miami/Chicago game.Comment -
Funny you mention it.....I think this will be another possible opportunity for a middle.....this game should get off to a reasonably fast start for OKC....but the grind will (once again) slow it down....
179754220-1 5/15/13 12:53pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 737 Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder Over 185 -105* Comment -
If that's what you truly believe, why not take the over for the 1st half? seems like every game that appears to be shooting over the total early inevitably regresses back towards the original total, and vice-versa for the Unders... looks like its gonna go way under then a 2H frenzy brings the over back within reach - par for the course I supposeComment -
For one reason....if the total in the 1st Quarter is LOW, then we can still lay off our bet. The first Q rarely changes the line (especially on a low line with two teams that can score).....if it is 24-23 after the first Q we go back and bet the under for $100 cancelling our original bet....unless the first Q goes WAY under, which I seriously doubt. In that case (a 47 point 1st Q) I am sure the o/u will still be at 185 (and maybe even better if there is an APPEARANCE that the game could be a shoot-out).Comment -
I m glad we bet the Troicki match at 1 unit, because he is currently crapping all over the court. Gulbis looks strong, but Troicki looks like he came into this match KNOWING he was done.Comment -
A quick recap of the morning's tennis gives us a 4-3 record and a + $180 head start to our day.....let's keep the good times rolling!
D2DComment -
Also, to bring everything forward (series bets, etc) this is everything we have open.....
179754220-1 5/15/13 12:53pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 737 Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder Over 185 -105* 179747632-1 5/15/13 11:43am $117.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 8:05pm NHL Hockey 8 Chicago Blackhawks (1st 60 min) -½ -117* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings (1st 60 min) 179747582-1 5/15/13 11:42am $255.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 846 Chicago Blackhawks (Series) -255* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings (Series) 179747582-2 5/15/13 11:42am $130.00 $100.00 Pending 5/16/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 6 Boston Bruins -130* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers 179747475-1 5/15/13 11:40am $105.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 737 Memphis Grizzlies +4½ -105* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder 179747475-2 5/15/13 11:40am $108.00 $100.00 Pending 5/16/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 741 San Antonio Spurs -1 -108* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors 179747308-1 5/15/13 11:38am $60.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 1:10pm Reduced Baseball 915 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins Over 8½ -120* (D Axelrod - R must Start M Pelfrey - R must Start) 179747246-1 5/15/13 11:37am $50.00 $59.50 Pending 5/15/13 1:10pm MLB Baseball 915 Chicago White Sox +119* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Twins (D Axelrod - R must Start M Pelfrey - R must Start) 179747246-2 5/15/13 11:37am $52.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 3:35pm MLB Baseball 917 Texas Rangers -104* <small>vs</small> Oakland Athletics (A Ogando - R must Start D Straily - R must Start) 179747246-3 5/15/13 11:37am $50.00 $57.50 Pending 5/15/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 921 Boston Red Sox +115* <small>vs</small> Tampa Bay Rays (J Lester - L must Start D Price - L must Start) 179747246-4 5/15/13 11:37am $55.00 $50.00 Pending 5/15/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 930 Toronto Blue Jays -110* <small>vs</small> San Francisco Giants (R Vogelsong - R must Start R Ortiz - R must Start) 179616177-1 5/14/13 2:29pm $140.00 $100.00 Pending 5/14/13 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 844 Los Angeles Kings (Series) -140* <small>vs</small> San Jose Sharks (Series) 179616151-1 5/14/13 2:29pm $369.00 $300.00 Pending 5/16/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 848 Boston Bruins (Series) -123* <small>vs</small> New York Rangers (Series) 179470683-1 5/13/13 11:41am $100.00 $115.00 Pending 5/13/13 10:10pm Props Baseball 5909 Washington Nationals (3 Game Series) +115* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Dodgers (3 Game Series) (Fixed Price) 178727318-3 5/8/13 12:05pm $100.00 $100.00 Pending 5/11/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 875 Indiana Pacers (Series) +100* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks (Series) 178591890-1 5/7/13 4:33pm $100.00 $97.97 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 5/7/13 7:05pm NBA Basketball 875 Indiana Pacers (Series) -155* <small>vs</small> New York Knicks (Series) Pending 5/8/13 9:35pm NBA Basketball 872 San Antonio Spurs (Series) -1100* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors (Series) Pending 5/8/13 7:05pm NBA Basketball 874 Miami Heat (Series) -970* <small>vs</small> Chicago Bulls (Series) 178570208-5 5/7/13 9:55am $100.00 $145.00 Pending 5/7/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 877 Memphis Grizzlies (Series) +145* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder (Series) Totals: $1,996.00 $1,724.97 Comment -
Cheers for ATP, D2D.
Two of 3 losses were half unit plays too, good stuff.
(I don't watch tennis loldegenplays but did Tsonga completely shit the bed or what? Seems he was a pretty big fav)Comment -
The one thing I have noticed is this.....
I have watched people repeatedly start to watch my thread, tail some of my plays and then disappear. I ask myself 'why is this? We have been winning....' and the only thing I can figure is that they are either playing 'select' games from my lists or that their money management skills are not working with a system where you are betting so many games.
I have PM'd a few of these guys and they are telling me 'I went bust and am on a break' or 'I had a bad night and went on a break'.....how is this possible unless there is chasing going on. NOW, I can assure you that I am a degen....I really am, BUT I revel in having the self control not to chase losses. I know some people here think that some of my live plays are chases, but I can assure you they are not, those are plays that I believe have as much or more +EV as the rest of my pre-game plays.
Come on guys....I really just want to see people winning....make a plan, stick to it and cash your cheque!! If I have a few losing days (which happens to everyone) you have seen that it does NOT affect my betting at all...in fact instead of going bigger I tend to go a little smaller to protect what I have until it gets going again.
I cannot predict the future boys, but we are 90 days in and have shown progression in almost every 10 day segment along the way....and after the last two days (plus this morning) I am back to within a few bucks of stepping up to my next level ($75 units). One unit right now is less than .5% of my current bankroll, and that is perfectly manageable....when I step up I will move back to .600% ($75) until I can build my bank until I get back down to where $75 represents .5% again.....then rinse and repeat.
I really want everyone to be successful at this.....again I am not saying I am any sort of Mesiah, BUT years (and I mean YEARS) of bankroll busts in poker, billiards and golf have taught me that is NOT the way to live, and even more, not the way to prosper.
The last thing I have to get off of my chest....when somebody tails one play and tells me 'I am tailing THIS ONE play, hope it comes through' or 'I was on your POD and it lost!!'.....in those cases there is clearly nothing I can do guys!! When betting ONE game here and there there is something inevitable that is going to strike and that is VARIANCE!!!!
LASTLY:
I have been saying, since my first day, that the reason I play SO MANY games is that is the only way that I know how to beat variance. As we all know variance tends to smooth out with volume.....I know nobody else bets like me, I know that most people think it is impossible to beat variance, but I can assure you that VOLUME is the BEST way to beat it over a sustained timeframe. Would mny winning % be a little higher if I bet three games a day? Possibly....but I don't think so. I truly believe that I can find a slight edge across a number of sports and in a number of games and in this game, betting with a great book with reduced juice ALL you need is a slight edge to produce winning results.
Anyway.....once again GL tonight and let's kill it!!
D2DComment -
Love your work , I don't like to post to much as I don't want to clutter up the thread , but your money management and selections are top class . Your doing your best and making money people just have to have common sense and look at a year long grind in growing the bank. It is hard work keeping up to date with all investments but nothing comes easy in life and I would prefer sitting on my pc placing wagers than going to a mundane 9 to 5 job. Good luck today, after he last few days we may be due to a downward trend but there is no reason we will keep on winning.
All thebest from the land of Oz.Last edited by angelo63; 05-15-13, 07:10 PM.Comment -
Blue Jays on fire!!!
Not good for my fantasy baseball though, look at the dude I'm facing.Comment -
That didn't work. He has 5 blue jays.Comment -
D2D, I have started to follow you ever since you PM'd me. So, I thank you and everything that you do!Comment -
I bet an average of approximately $2200 per day, for a total of approximately $190,000 over the last 90 days. My average day has been $133 profit, which equals about 6.5% return on my daily betting.
Lol, ouch.....but still worth a win for us today!!
Great! Glad you came on board!!Comment -
ADDING: Memphis ML live play!! One unit at +205!!
179834054-1 5/15/13 10:01pm $50.00 $102.50 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9737 Memphis Grizzlies +205* <small>vs</small> Oklahoma City Thunder Comment -
Also, would like to lay off our over bet....but oéu has already dropped to 182. Let`s look for a run in scoring and see if we can get it back up to 185+ and get rid of it! If it doesn`t go back up we sit and pray for OT and a Memphis win!!!!Comment -
ok, I got the o185 pre-game position...i'm keen on following along on the "middling" workshop...i've always been rather confused by the mechanics of such bet-layering..
I'll follow along with you guyz, and some of my own escarole in play...let's hope the game just sings "over" from start to finish...OR the game unfolds in such a way that a "middling" opportunity develops...
it's my first tym boyz...be gentle
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Lol, unfortunate.....this game is already going under 185 as far as I am concerned. I am not sure why that is....OKC NEEDS their crowd in the game and playing half-court, beat-em-up basketball they are going to lose this game. I don't know what Brooks is doing....as far as I am concerned he does not know how to coach.ok, I got the o185 pre-game position...i'm keen on following along on the "middling" workshop...i've always been rather confused by the mechanics of such bet-layering..
I'll follow along with you guyz, and some of my own escarole in play...let's hope the game just sings "over" from start to finish...OR the game unfolds in such a way that a "middling" opportunity develops...
it's my first tym boyz...be gentle
Maybe he will get a clue at half time and open things up and we will still have a shot at the over.
Durant at 0 for 6 not helping....Comment -
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Ok, I have laid off my bet with an opp at a small middle (1.5 points).
IMO this game is going under, but I am going to protect myself and get out now....
GL in whatever choice you make here....
Lets all hope for 186 and everyone is a winner!!179840879-1 5/15/13 10:40pm $110.00 $100.00 Pending 5/15/13 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9737 Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder Under 186½ -110* Comment -
Also, our night is over in regular MLB plays (still have an outstanding series bet out there) and we finished at:
5-0
Bringing our 9 day total to 36-18-4.....
Now I know a lot of people were skeptical of my MLB plays at first, but we have now had a winning record AND have won $ 9 consecutive days. I can assure you that if you have been waiting for me....it is safe to proceed...start out with smaller units, but I do not want you to miss out on +EV plays.
Also, Chicago just booked a Game 1 win for us in our -.5 regulation bet for tonight....
NOW....let's go Memphis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
D2D, in response to your post a few hours ago, I just wanted to say how much I appreciate your picks. I have full confidence tailing you in every sport (except baseball in which I do my own thing). I know I've made money, and will continue to make money tailing you.
So thank you so much. You couldn't do it any better (except maybe post your ATP plays earlier because I get tired :P). BOL and keeping winning.Comment
