D2D's NBA, NHL and MLB Daily wagers.......

[Dollars2Donuts]

Hi.

I have long been very interested in second half bets, always wondered if there was some special indicator that might lead you to the right side, or perhaps a mathematical model.

Or maybe just being one of those guys who have a great "feel", can watch a first half and know what's going to happen in the second half from seeing the first.

I like under in the second half of this Laker game, very few offensive rebounds and I figure if neither team get any offensive rebounds it's hard for a game to go over.

Leaving no stone un-turned in the search for an edge.

- OSP

PS: I've got a feeling you're going to crush on today's hockey, just a hunch I've got.

Thanks, I hope so!

As for the 2nd half bet it would have been great, but I was off visiting my grandmother with my mom.....so I have missed all the NBA so far completely (Grandma likes the Blue Jays so I was able to have that game on!!).

D2D

[OldSchoolPro]

Not for nuttin', but when I hear you say you missed much of the NBA today off visiting family, I think these two thoughts: First, you have baseball and hockey (not to mention tennis in Monte Carlo), missing a little basketball is painful but not an outright full-on tragedy.

That line of thought brought me to this: Back in the day, there was a quiet but also legendary character, a former actuary, who used to sit quietly in the corner at the club where we played cards (Mayfair Club in NYC, became famous later as the incubator for a lot of great Hold-em players) and take bets on anything going, or give you an account with an office if you merited one.

He was a very bright guy, but very quiet, mad funny in that droll kind of way. He had the long hair and mustache of the drummer in Spinal Tap, and he made an outstanding living by putting all the gamblers at the Mayfair into stores.

Though 98% of the time he responded to all inquiries with the most straight-on reply possible (though no one thought to ask him how much money he was making fading all the card-players, the answer to that was definitely "plenty"), one type of question used to inspire a most impassioned response from him, that was when you asked him for a hockey line or if he happened to know a particular hockey score.

That sort of question would inspire Bob The BM to snap to life. I remember it well: His eyes would light up, and he'd summon himself to his full 5 foot 6 inches in height. This guy was as pale as Joey Ramone, and like Joey they both were born in Queens just after World War Two.

"Hockey?" he'd echo. Then, passionate: "Hockey is my life!"

It was only after I knew him a year or two that I realized he basically always said this, "Hockey is my life!" whenever the subject came up.

Bob was a very beloved guy, which is almost impossible of course for a BM. A heavy smoker and also a diabetic, he died in the mid-eighties when he had a heart attack in Central Park.

But I guess that's a pretty good catch phrase he had ("Hockey is my life!") if I still remember it well nearly thirty years after he left.

And he wasn't even Canadian (though he might have become one if he hadn't been draft-exempt because of his diabetes).

- OSP

PS: With ya on the Lightning and the Mighty Ducks tonight. I also like St. Louis and under in that game (Blues at Colorado?), St. Louis has some goalie who is playing totally unconscious, lowest GAA I've seen since Tony Esposito had a good start one year for the Black Hawks....

[Dollars2Donuts]

Lol, nice.....I wish I knew that '________ was my life'.

I find in some ways I am as yet undefined. I have a wonderful family that I see a couple of short times a year, I have a job I love but certainly never say that 'my job/career is my life', I have a great girlfriend but we have some issues to get through......handicapping is relatively new to me but I will be damned if I ever say sports/handicapping is my life'.....

I am starting to wonder, if at 40 years old, I need to do a better job of defining myself.....

I also like my hockey picks, but am not convinced of the under in that St Loo game because it is at 5 and not at 5.5.....I really hope that Miami covers for us as that will definitely be a defining moment (hahaha) for our day.

[Dollars2Donuts]

I see the Hurricanes up by 2.....that's a surprise and disappointing.

[Jayvegas420]

40 is the new 30.
Good posts today!
I like the under in OKC.

Bet Confirmation - YG1334991420I - Internet Time of bet: 04/21/2013 19:07:00 Print

Selections

1 Under 211.5 HOU Rockets @ OKC Thunder (Game Totals) 04/21/2013 None -102 To Run 2 (Jake Westbrook & Kyle Kendrick must start) STL Cardinals Pitcher details STL Cardinals(J Westbrook) @ PHI Phillies(K Kendrick) (Money Line) 04/21/2013 None +101 To Run

Parlays Round Robin/2 Play Parlays 1 20.00 20.00 79.61

Bet Confirmation - SG0986111320I - Internet Time of bet: 04/21/2013 04:30:40 Print

Selections

1 Under 198.5 MIL Bucks @ MIA Heat (Game Totals) 04/21/2013 None -105 To Run 2 Under 5.5 NJ Devils @ NY Rangers (Game Totals) 04/21/2013 None -225 Won

Parlays Round Robin/2 Play Parlays 1 20.00 20.00 56.40

Total Risk: 20.00

Bet Confirmation - RG5540177610I - Internet Time of bet: 04/21/2013 04:31:02 Print

Selections

1 Under 199.0 MIL Bucks @ MIA Heat (Game Totals) 04/21/2013 None -110 To Run Risk: 23.50 To Return: 44.86

[Dollars2Donuts]

Guys, watch the first part of the 3rd Quarter for a great chance to middle. The tempo of the game is telling me that we are going to get a Heat surge and I am thinking that by 6 minutes into the 3rd Q the Heat will be up 13 or more.....we may turn and live bet a shot to middle this sucker....so stay awake!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Boom:

175992147-1

4/21/13 8:40pm

$220.00

$200.00

Pending

4/21/13 7:00pm Live In-Play Basketball 9713 Milwaukee Bucks +16½ -110* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat

Ok, we have 5 points to cover and Chalmers and Bosh are in foul trouble. I love this bet here.....

Also added:

175984765-1

4/21/13 8:34pm

$90.00

$50.00

Pending

4/21/13 8:05pm Live In-Play Baseball 9913 STL total hits 2nd inning +½ -180* <small>vs</small> PHI total hits 2nd inning (Fixed Price)

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yes.....I totally blew that. I saw it happening exactly as I thought...the Heat got it to 15 and I bet it, then the Bucks got it down to 9 and then fell apart. I bought myself 5 points to middle it and blew that all to heck....wish I had been out for dinner or something! Lol.

[bald_guy]

Yea. Can't say I understand what you was trying to do there. But I left well enough alone with the original bet, and my account really thanks you. Sucks u called it and won't get to enjoy it.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Not for nuttin', but when I hear you say you missed much of the NBA today off visiting family, I think these two thoughts: First, you have baseball and hockey (not to mention tennis in Monte Carlo), missing a little basketball is painful but not an outright full-on tragedy.

That line of thought brought me to this: Back in the day, there was a quiet but also legendary character, a former actuary, who used to sit quietly in the corner at the club where we played cards (Mayfair Club in NYC, became famous later as the incubator for a lot of great Hold-em players) and take bets on anything going, or give you an account with an office if you merited one.

He was a very bright guy, but very quiet, mad funny in that droll kind of way. He had the long hair and mustache of the drummer in Spinal Tap, and he made an outstanding living by putting all the gamblers at the Mayfair into stores.

Though 98% of the time he responded to all inquiries with the most straight-on reply possible (though no one thought to ask him how much money he was making fading all the card-players, the answer to that was definitely "plenty"), one type of question used to inspire a most impassioned response from him, that was when you asked him for a hockey line or if he happened to know a particular hockey score.

That sort of question would inspire Bob The BM to snap to life. I remember it well: His eyes would light up, and he'd summon himself to his full 5 foot 6 inches in height. This guy was as pale as Joey Ramone, and like Joey they both were born in Queens just after World War Two.

"Hockey?" he'd echo. Then, passionate: "Hockey is my life!"

It was only after I knew him a year or two that I realized he basically always said this, "Hockey is my life!" whenever the subject came up.

Bob was a very beloved guy, which is almost impossible of course for a BM. A heavy smoker and also a diabetic, he died in the mid-eighties when he had a heart attack in Central Park.

But I guess that's a pretty good catch phrase he had ("Hockey is my life!") if I still remember it well nearly thirty years after he left.

And he wasn't even Canadian (though he might have become one if he hadn't been draft-exempt because of his diabetes).

- OSP

PS: With ya on the Lightning and the Mighty Ducks tonight. I also like St. Louis and under in that game (Blues at Colorado?), St. Louis has some goalie who is playing totally unconscious, lowest GAA I've seen since Tony Esposito had a good start one year for the Black Hawks....

Lol, my NHL picks may go O-fer tonight.....it is NOT looking good.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yea. Can't say I understand what you was trying to do there. But I left well enough alone with the original bet, and my account really thanks you. Sucks u called it and won't get to enjoy it.

?

You don't understand what I was doing there? I honestly thought it would be a more closely contended game than that.....so I went for 0 risk with the upside of winning $400.....it is called middling the book and, whuile I lost and it sucks, it is still something that any good bettor should use when he/she can make it work.

Again, if the Bucks lose by less than 12 I break even, if the Heat win by more than 16 I break even and if the heat win by 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 I win $400......

[bald_guy]

Now I understand. I thought u was either afraid your original bet was going to lose and wanted to cancell it out with this one (except lose juice) or win both and double the original bet.

Never look at it as losing only juice or doubling your bet as much.

Well. Good try. With the point spread difference of original bet vs live bet you did stand a good chance of it working.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Yep....like I said, too bad it didn't work, BUT it is worth the shot sometimes. I blew it in this OKC game though...I have it under 213.5 and could have bet over 196.5 in the first quarter.....a 17 point attempt at a middle, but I passed...mostly because of what happened earlier...lol.

[MoneyTree]

st louis always screwing me in the ass

[ThunderMonkey]

D2D....a lot to say, first you're great! Mad props to you!! I have been tailing and following you since your first post on your "my first day at sbr" thread. Long story short, I play with a local for all my bball, foots, and base after the break. That's all the guy will take. He uses bvad for numbers. I play your plays that will allow with the local. I hadn't played any of your other plays due to the locals play, although I felt I missing out. So, I recently deposited 250$ as you had done in the beginning. I played all the opposites on the offshore. Two days later I was done. I know its not on you at all. You're awesome Donut. Hell, I never speak about anything. Just play my plays and try to educate myself. So anyways, in your opinion what should my initial deposit be to trail? How do
I down bet size so I can tail the enormity of plays? I was playing 15/30 to your 100/200 for a start, then planned to increase as the game allowed? Thanks for sharing all your hard work and plays. Thanks!!! Peas and karat gold!!!! BOL Cheers

[Dollars2Donuts]

You may think I suck people......and I am sorry for that, but I cannot see any way this game stays under 213.5 now. I could have laid off my bet at 196.5 in the first Q but didn't.....and now I am reversing (no chance we get middled if you hop on).

GL

176016427-1

4/21/13 10:56pm

$220.00

$200.00

Pending

4/21/13 9:30pm NBA Basketball 715 Houston Rockets/Oklahoma City Thunder 2nd Half Over 106 -110*

[Dollars2Donuts]

D2D....a lot to say, first you're great! Mad props to you!! I have been tailing and following you since your first post on your "my first day at sbr" thread. Long story short, I play with a local for all my bball, foots, and base after the break. That's all the guy will take. He uses bvad for numbers. I play your plays that will allow with the local. I hadn't played any of your other plays due to the locals play, although I felt I missing out. So, I recently deposited 250$ as you had done in the beginning. I played all the opposites on the offshore. Two days later I was done. I know its not on you at all. You're awesome Donut. Hell, I never speak about anything. Just play my plays and try to educate myself. So anyways, in your opinion what should my initial deposit be to trail? How do
I down bet size so I can tail the enormity of plays? I was playing 15/30 to your 100/200 for a start, then planned to increase as the game allowed? Thanks for sharing all your hard work and plays. Thanks!!! Peas and carat gold!!!! BOL Cheers

Well....thanks first of all....I hope you have been making some decent coin with your local anyway! I currently am running with $8k in my account and at no point would I ever feel like I was in trouble.....so buy in for $800 and play 10% or buy in for $400 and play 5%.

It will be a longer road for sure.....we all know that nopbody wins at a win rate that makes a HUGE amount of money unless you get a little lucky at the start....but you NEED to have enough in your account that you aren't worried....ever.

Good luck man....

D2D

[Potentate]

FWIW, I don't bet hockey, but I've been following your picks (and some others). Tailed you on Anaheim for my first ever hockey wager. Success! It's said often, but thanks for sharing all your thoughts here.

[ThunderMonkey]

Thanks D2D! I am on, lets bang these books. I noticed on a thread you talking about the degens...ie pool, poker, golf, and sports. Spot on! I am all and never met a golfer who didn't play poker and shoot a little 9 ball. BOL ALL

[Coreos]

You may think I suck people......and I am sorry for that, but I cannot see any way this game stays under 213.5 now. I could have laid off my bet at 196.5 in the first Q but didn't.....and now I am reversing (no chance we get middled if you hop on).

GL

176016427-1

4/21/13 10:56pm

$220.00

$200.00

Pending

4/21/13 9:30pm NBA Basketball 715 Houston Rockets/Oklahoma City Thunder 2nd Half Over 106 -110*

Looks like we did the same thing. I have been thoroughly perplexed by these playoff games - I just can't figure how to live bet these games! Frustrating since I love the live bet. 1Q I had the same opportunity you did and passed thinking there was no way the Rockets would hang w/the Thunder. And now the 2H line was only the Thunder -2.5...looked too good so I passed

I'm worried that there is going to be some slowing down in the 4Q if the lead gets too high...

[Dollars2Donuts]

Looks like we did the same thing. I have been thoroughly perplexed by these playoff games - I just can't figure how to live bet these games! Frustrating since I love the live bet. 1Q I had the same opportunity you did and passed thinking there was no way the Rockets would hang w/the Thunder. And now the 2H line was only the Thunder -2.5...looked too good so I passed

I'm worried that there is going to be some slowing down in the 4Q if the lead gets too high...

It is already happening....an 0 for 9 from Houston and now we are screwed...lol. If I had just tried to middle it at 196.5 it would have worked.....won $200 instead of losing $200 plus juice.....yikes.

[Dollars2Donuts]

O/U down to 209......yep, I blew this one.....I hope nobody else is live betting here...this is embarassing tonight,

Honestly, every single live move I have made has made things worse....I should have just left my original bet or laid off in Q1......I usually get such a good read with live plays, but this game....well, this game has me CONFUSED.

[Potentate]

O/U down to 209......yep, I blew this one.....I hope nobody else is live betting here...this is embarassing tonight,

Honestly, every single live move I have made has made things worse....I should have just left my original bet or laid off in Q1......I usually get such a good read with live plays, but this game....well, this game has me CONFUSED.

In-game gets a little weird sometimes. I'm big on OKC ATS but I used live to put just a little on Rockets +19.

[henrique417]

hey d2d, great job overall. been following your plays for a few days. It might be too early but are you thinking about making some picks for the atp barcelona open?

[Coreos]

O/U down to 209......yep, I blew this one.....I hope nobody else is live betting here...this is embarassing tonight,

Honestly, every single live move I have made has made things worse....I should have just left my original bet or laid off in Q1......I usually get such a good read with live plays, but this game....well, this game has me CONFUSED.

At least we're both in the same boat. Totally lost all discipline and screwed up my original bet, which I am foreseeing will be the right bet. This has just been a mess of a night for me.

[Overbettor]

Where's the 73 point 4th when we need it

[Dollars2Donuts]

Where's the 73 point 4th when we need it

LOL

[bald_guy]

We made it!! 211 vs 213.5.

That was a close one but we did it. Good call D2D. $$$$

[Overbettor]

What?

[Dollars2Donuts]

We made it!! 211 vs 213.5.

That was a close one but we did it. Good call D2D. $$$$

Ummm....I reversed at half time.....it was a loser for me, glad you won though.

I would have middled it but I passed at 196.5, 201.5, 206.5 and 209.......instead it turns from a $200 profit into a $120 loss.....

I made a lot of poor decisions live tonight.....a lot. I was uneasy because my earlier 'MIDDLE' didn't turn out and I should have just listened to my gut and gone ahead with it...how often do you get a shot at a 17 point middle in an O/U?

I screwed both of my winners today....Miami and OKC Under.....both picked as winners and everybody won on them except me.....because I made poor live bets. This one is a rough one boys....a potential great day turned into nothing.

Today:

11-7-1

+ $216.25


Totals (69 documented days):

506 - 413 - 26

+ $ 11,204.85


Play of the Day (NO CHANGE):

29 - 15

+ $4379.93

[Dollars2Donuts]

As a quick recap of my poor betting decisions my day would have been 13-6-1 for $556.25 if I hadn't live bet those two games.....

How gross.

[MonkeyMoney]

We made it!! 211 vs 213.5.

That was a close one but we did it. Good call D2D. $$$$

LOL did no body else catch the error? it was a 3 point play by the rockets with like 4 mins left and they didnt count the 2pointer.. just the FT

[bald_guy]

As a quick recap of my poor betting decisions my day would have been 13-6-1 for $556.25 if I hadn't live bet those two games.....

How gross.

Least u r man enough to count them live plays that lost in your record. I stayed with your original bets and done pretty good tonight.

If you remember when you asked people's opinion on if you could keep winning long term, that was the only thing some experience betters was concerned about you doing.

Any rate thanks for your hard work and look forward to (today here now) picks.

[Overbettor]

LOL did no body else catch the error? it was a 3 point play by the rockets with like 4 mins left and they didnt count the 2pointer.. just the FT

It was counted bro

[Dollars2Donuts]

LOL did no body else catch the error? it was a 3 point play by the rockets with like 4 mins left and they didnt count the 2pointer.. just the FT

That did not happen....not only did I watch the entire thing (and I notice those kinds of things) but I also went through the entire play by play to make sure.....I think it best that you do some research before you post that kind of thing. Not that it mattered anyway....I lost by 2.5 points.