People That Bet Favorites Get Buried

[mad]

Finally, this spreadsheet really doesn't tell you anything you wouldn't already know. What is does do is set out with the use of a few simple formulas what is going on and exactly what are the figures are saying. That is why it is a tool to aid in your decisions rather than anything else. IT DOES NOT NOR SHOULD NOT BE SOLELY USED TO MAKE SELECTIONS.

[LGBoots]

Betting Favs will lose you cash long term unless you are VERY selective on what you bet on.

[raiders72001]

I'm not trying to shoot holes in your theory but just trying to understand the concepts so please don't take it negatively.

300/-400 the ML market has been framed at 105% 80:25.

So you are saying that with a ML of 300/400 that the handicap line should be around 5 or 6.

At 300/-400 the true line is 320/-320. Rounding this means 76 % and 24% which also comes up with a line of 76 - 24 = 52. 52/10 = 5.2. SHouldn't the formula come out with a line closer to 9 or 10.?

If the handicap line is 5 or 6 and you are getting +300 you should be able to take the +300 and make a nice profit.

[raiders72001]

Betting Favs will lose you cash long term unless you are VERY selective on what you bet on.

Betting straight favs or straight dogs will be a losing proposition long term. Each year the % of wins of both the fav and dog are coming closer and closer to 50%.

[mad]

That's exactly the point Raiders, i'm not trying to frame the market or judge where the line should be. Using just the figures available to me, i am saying yes this line looks vulnerable, no it doesn't etc. This assessment is not based on the point spread but based on the the ML/Handicap percentages which are derived from the prices available at any one point in time. The lines will change, prices will change. These issues are out of the punters control. I am just trying to utilise the info provided to see whether the line is acceptable and therefore a worthwhile betting proposition. Forget trying to use this method to determine where the line should be, that's a cappers job. This method just examines the betting market info - that's all. Any conclusions that can be drawn are used as a tool not a prediction.

[mad]

Hey all,
After a review of this thread and my spreadsheet i am going to throw out a few teams here to win this weekend using the betting market as my guide. In relation to the points you were making Raiders, i think we have been focusing too much on the line component of this piece of analysis. The purpose of this spreadsheet is to determine what the betting market is telling us, both the moneyline and handicap (spread). Yes that includes the line but it is not the main focal point. The line is merely a component and as such is included, but it is not a determining factor.

Anyways the following teams have definitive support in the betting markets:

Jags
Giants
Seahawks
Raiders
Chargers*
Colts
Bucs

*The support has come for the Chargers ATS. The ML still has the Patriots strong favourites. Similarly, the Bengals are marginally under what i would like, so it might be worth checking for any developments later.

All other games have demonstrated little definitive movement or strength. The Eagles were showing strength earlier in the week but without a ML it is very difficult to tell. However the Eagles have drifted ATS after the line was moved to 1.

Games demonstrating little or no betting market strength may very well have a case for the underdog - just a thought.

[mad]

Money for the Chargers, line in to +4.5. Pushes them out of what i would call the strong zone. This might suggest that the earlier ATS analysis was correct. It is now not as attractive as it was but let's wait and see. Also money for the Titans pushes the Colts out.

[Mr Nuts]

I hear you bud. I hope the Yankees and their 78 billion dollar payroll miss the playoffs.

I'll drink to that...Illusion