People That Bet Favorites Get Buried

[jjgold]

All end up broke

Fact #21

[Terris]

what a statement einstein

[tacomax]

Care to list facts #1-#20 ?

[Illusion]

I almost never bet huge chalk, but played Boston tonight for 3 units. Nice comeback Red Sox!!!

[Terris]

hehe...yeah congrats Illusion (i had them too, but a small bet only), wasnt looking good for them

[Illusion]

hehe...yeah congrats Illusion (i had them too, but a small bet only), wasnt looking good for them

A win is a win small or not. :an_cheers

[raiders72001]

but played Boston tonight for 3 units

had no bet but want Bos to win the division. They still have a chance.

[Illusion]

I hear you bud. I hope the Yankees and their 78 billion dollar payroll miss the playoffs.

[BuddyBear]

All end up broke

Fact #21

This is actually a statement I am going to agree with. If you are going to bet you better make the underdog the central tenant of your betting strategy.

You should never have more than 25% favorites on any given card of 4 or more plays in my opinion. If you do, you need to rethink things.

[SBR_John]

Fact #21A
A good handicapper picks both.

[mad]

Thank you SBR,

Could you please qualify your remarks JJ with some form of substantiation. A fact or some evidence, rather than some droll story from your life as, what seems to be by all accounts - including your own, an inedequate gambler.

[raiders72001]

John- That fact should be #1

[jjgold]

Betting Boston last night was a bad bet even if you won, You have to be out of your mind laying the wood like that.

[mad]

So what are you saying BoBo?
Betting against the public is the way to go. I've heard some talk on the subject recently but would love to see some stats, yes that dirty word again, on the results of this system. The only argument you'll get from me against such a system is that sometimes the road less travelled is less travelled for a reason. Could you please, at your earliest convenience, provide some kind of argument for your case?

[Ganchrow]

People that make broad absolutist generalizations are always wrong.

[Razz]

People that make broad absolutist generalizations are always wrong.

Nice response. :thumbs_up

[mad]

Further to my recent post, here is a little spreadsheet i whipped up during the week to help me identify what is going on in the betting markets. Be under no illusions, this is not a suggestion of how to wager, however what it does do is allow the viewer to identify discepancies in the betting market. Unfortunately due to my lack of technical skills it is not automated, however i am in discussions with Agent Smith as to how best address this problem and will keep you posted.

It is a simple model that determines price levels and highlights any differences between money lines and spreads, using points as a determining factor. The assumption is simple, money line prices suggest a level of confidence, expressed in percentages, about a particular teams chances. The handicap attributed +/- points is meant to alter the playing field to a 50/50 level (no pun intended). Therefore this model examines the percentage variance between the money line and handicap prices and attributes this on a point by point basis with some interesting results.

I will reassert that this is not a selection system but a tool to allow you to gauge where the money is or going and as such allows you to see any discepancies you could take advantage of. The final selection is up to you.

Some things you will notice:
Sheet one was compiled early on in the week before much market activity. It is designed as a snapshot for the purpose of comparison. The colour coded squares are an addition by me and are not suggested bets but a means of determining what the betting market is saying.
Sheet two was completed an hour or so ago and is useful to gauge further movement. Both the Eagles and Bills game have no money line so that is why they are blank.
Unfortunately this spreadsheet is not automated so you will have to enter the details, line and price movement manually. Everything else is calculated automatically through formula's already inputted so don't touch these columns. Highlighted numbers suggest over/unders and or favourites. The final numbers suggest discepancies, ignore everything except the advantage column. The higher the number here the better. After that it is up to you to make your decisions. As mentioned previously this is not a selection method but a tool to display information clearly in front of you to aid in your decisions. I hope someone finds it useful.

PS Sheet three is a copy of sheet two, i have included it so that you can update it on Saturday or Sunday (input line, prices etc) for the final time before placing your bets should you decide to do so.

[BuddyBear]

Based on data from Sportsinishgts, betting against the public when the public is 70% or more on one side will yield you a 57% profit. That's the their data on mine and they seem to track things rather well.

Betting agaisnt the public does not mean always betting on underdogs. There will be a number of instances where betting on the favorite is the way to go (i.e. UCLA -7 against Oklahoma). Everyone has their betting strategy.

However, I think it is pretty much universal among leaders of the sportsbook industry that betting an overwhelming number of favorites is not the way to go. This may vary between sports but if you are betting 70% favorites, then you should be looking for a good bankruptcy attorney as well. Everyone knows value is in the underdog. I don't think we'd disagree on that.

I've yet to hear of anyone who bets a majority of games with the favorite (and to a smaller extant the over) and wins regularly. No value in favorites. It's just not the way to go.

[mad]

Thank you Buddy Bear for your reasoned and logical argument.

I do not dispute that favourites are not always the correct choice just because they are favourite. However, to say that just because they are favourites means this rules them out of contention or that because they're are underdogs means they are a superior choice is also incorrect . It is the same logic only in reverse, incorrect both times. This is why i ask BoBo to explain his reasoning and not just make silly statements.

According to your figures you should lay the favourite, particularly short priced favourites. The logic being that they are a short price due to the amount of public money being wagered on them. Could it be that easy? I am not disputing your case so much as i am questioning the logic of the public money reasoning.

Or let's say for the sake of argument, that as you are doing your capping you were having difficulty seperating two evenly matched teams - performance wise. Let's also say that you are a reasonably good capper. Then under these circumstances you should automatically choose or at least favor the underdog in your selections. If you are a value seeker, perhaps. But finding value in itself does not always guarantee you success. Similarly, you cannot determine value unless you frame your own markets after carefully assessing the chances of each team in the contest. It may or may not surprise you to learn that value can also be found with the favourite.

That is one of the reasons i use the spreadsheet above, and this method is how i approach my gambling.

[HAPPY BOY]

Based on data from Sportsinishgts, betting against the public when the public is 70% or more on one side will yield you a 57% profit. That's the their data on mine and they seem to track things rather well.

Betting agaisnt the public does not mean always betting on underdogs. There will be a number of instances where betting on the favorite is the way to go (i.e. UCLA -7 against Oklahoma). Everyone has their betting strategy.

However, I think it is pretty much universal among leaders of the sportsbook industry that betting an overwhelming number of favorites is not the way to go. This may vary between sports but if you are betting 70% favorites, then you should be looking for a good bankruptcy attorney as well. Everyone knows value is in the underdog. I don't think we'd disagree on that.

I've yet to hear of anyone who bets a majority of games with the favorite (and to a smaller extant the over) and wins regularly. No value in favorites. It's just not the way to go.

does this theory work across the board in all sports or is there any difference between say footbaal and baseball?

[sjelveh]

if your talking about nfl. the spread matters less then 30% you pick the winner you usally pick who covers

[raiders72001]

Mad- I'm not sure what you are doing here? You are using the spread and then computing a corresponding ML?

[mad]

No, all prices come directly from Pinnacle, handicap (spread) and moneyline.

[raiders72001]

Ok- You are plugging in both the spread and ML. Then where are you going?

[raiders72001]

This is where you are losing me. MLPerc, LMLD and Adv. How did you come up with those three columns?

[jjgold]

Any square just bets the favorite Same with race track.

Secondly the more you bet the more you bet favorite

Again this is for most case scenarios and of course some of the very very few sharps out there do not do this

[mad]

They are just abbreviations to describe what the figure stands for.

MLPercS = Money Line Percentage Spread, denotes the spread between the money line percentages (65:35 etc) as determined by the Pinnacle prices. They are then divided by the points on offer to show you how much of the difference is attributed to each point given. The higher this figure the bigger the variation between the two teams, as reflected by the money line price. Obviously the opposite is true. So if we take the 65:35 (+185/-185) example the difference = 30. So for the purposes of illustration, if we take two completely different spreads, say +/-10 and +/-5 points we see that the results are 3 and 6. 3 suggests the difference in the two teams is more than amply covered by the handicap than 6 value. Therefore we might consider the 6 value for the favourite and vice versa. That is of course if we were able to get +/-5 point handicap which we may not. If the spread was +/- 10, value of 3, this might suggest an underdog play. This method is based solely on the money line prices.

LMLD = Line - Money Line discrepancy. This figure represents the difference between the money line and the line in terms of price, expressed as a percentage for each team. Handicaps (points) are used to adjust the money line from a 65:35 split to a more even 50:50. So by examing the difference between the two, ie how much have the percentages been moved, we can see if the line created accurately reflects the difference between the two teams. Both Line and Money line prices are included/compared here.

Advantage = follows on from the LMLD in that it examines the differences between the values calculated for the LMLD. This figure is best viewed when examining the whole game-card to see which games have the strongest/weakest lines as determined by the prices available.

So to summarise,
MLPercS = uses money line percentage differences - determined by the moneyline price. We can see if the line favours a particular team.
LMLD = compares line and moneyline to ensure consistency of the pricing and the strength of the line. Which team it might favour.
Advantage = highlights any advantages, or perhaps lack of, found in the analysis. Higher values are preferred here when viewing the whole card.

Finally, this is not a selection system. It simples breaks down the betting market figures into percentages and some simple division, addition etc is performed to highlight discrepancies.

[raiders72001]

Mad- This si what I don't understamd. A ML of +300/-400 corresponds to a spread of +/-10 in college and +/-9 in the NFL.

Using your formula and math this is what I come up with.

400-300 = 100
You have a line 0f 10 for a college game
100/10 = 10 so the line is right on according to your formula.

Now lets look at the NFL
100/9 = 11.11 so the fav would be the play at 9.

I'm not sure how your formula applies since the same ML corresponds to different spreads comparing the NFL to NCAA but your formulas says that they are equal.

What am I doing wrong?

[mad]

First up you are comparing prices directly to lines without the use of percentages. Also i would say you have forgotten to adjust your handicap prices from the ML 75:25 at 300:-400 to +/-9 points 50:50 115:-125 or whatever the price might be. You're calculations are a little to straightforward in comparing the ML price directly to the points. I'll put these figures into the spreadsheet and see. Get back to ya in a minute. As for the points, they are a factor but not the determining one, the prices are as they determine the percentages.

[EBone]

A spreadsheet like this is why I keep coming to this forum. The concept is just plain good from where I sit.......everyone can agree or disagree with how it is done. I just like that people are coming up with ideas and implementing them into their strategies. Hats off to you, mad............I don't know how I would use this as of yet and maybe I'll evolve to the point where I can use this or a variation of this on a regular basis.

Makes you think about how the market is reacting.

E

[jjgold]

Great spreadsheet by MAD

This guy is nuts with all his technical data.

Great info though

[mad]

Thanks Ebone, i hope you can find some use for it. It's really a simple concept if you understand the numbers behind bookmaking. That said it may or may not be worth a damn in terms of improving your win strike rate, but here's hoping it helps us all.

OK Raiders, here is what i have for ya. A lot really depends upon how the market has been framed by the bookie. I use Pinnacle as they are the tightest ship i have seen bar none. They frame markets at 102%, meaning 2% commission (or juice) for them and better prices for us all. Great stuff Pinnacle keep up the good work.

Back to the problem at hand. I have checked my spreadsheet and the info you have provided looks remarkably similar to the Bengals game this weekend. That ML market has been framed at 102%, 80:22. The handicap market has been framed +/- 9.5 points -104/-104. Assuming similar conditions here and using your figures of +/- 9 points 300/-400 the ML market has been framed at 105% 80:25. Under those conditions you would expect a handicap price of -110/-110. It could very well be something like 105/-126. That would depend on the market. This spreadsheet only assesses the market rather than frames it and is dependent on having these figures inputted by the user. However using the -110/-110 figures it would be a negligible advantage figure and a 6.11 MLpercS score. This would suggest the favourite, but again i am taking liberties here. At -110/-110 and +/- 10 points again our advantage figure is small and our MLPercS score falls to 5.5 but you have the extra point so again the favourite. If we had a market of 126/-105 the figures pretty much remain the same.

In finishing i would suggest you use the spreadsheet for the calculations in the future to be sure, to be sure.

[mad]

Thanks JJ, hope you can find something in it or some use for it.

[jjgold]

Mad I saved it already

[mad]

Another point Raiders, i wouldn't pay a huge amount of attention at this stage to the MLPercS figures, time will tell how relevant they are i suppose. Too many factors can influence these figures. Best to consider them with the number of points available and the percentage difference of the moneyline. If however the adjustment figure and the MLPercS figure are pointing in the same direction well then we have an interesting situation.