Kimbrel +600 saves leader, Strausburg +600 K's leader...Looks to good to be true

WvGambler · 03-17-13, 03:28 PM

Gio Gonzalez at +2500 is better value.

C-Gold · 03-17-13, 03:38 PM

David Price +1000 looks good.
Chris Sale +3000 looks like a good long shot.

greenhippo · 03-17-13, 03:46 PM

Grienke at 5000? No way you can't throw down $10 on that.

seaborneq · 03-17-13, 03:54 PM

King Felix's elbow mri plus big contract knocked him out of the top odds.

KingJD31 · 03-17-13, 04:21 PM

hamels+900 best bet

KingJD31 · 03-17-13, 04:23 PM

why not throw a few bucks on dickey +5000

ttwarrior1 · 03-17-13, 04:44 PM

kimbrel had a great season last year, but it should be close, hell it could be motte or even soriano

j johnson, then rodney had the most saves last year, not kimbrel. No reason J johnson won't lead again with a better team

InTheDrink · 03-17-13, 04:50 PM

closer is the most volatile position from season to season aside from mariano over the years

choosing a favorite isnt +ev for saves

case in point...a lot of people hadnt even heard of kimbrel at this point in the season last year

justinsgiants · 03-17-13, 04:51 PM

Verlander, Kershaw, and Price are all playing for new contracts. They should be good bets.

rjt721 · 03-17-13, 04:53 PM

Pretty silly to tie your money up on that. As great as Kimbrel is, you're basically betting that Atlanta will give him more save opportunities than any other team. There's no doubt he's the best relief pitcher, but he wasn't close to leading the league in saves last season.

With Strasburg, he'll likely be spotting Verlander and Kershaw 30+ innings.

Mikeyanks23 · 03-17-13, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

Pretty silly to tie your money up on that. As great as Kimbrel is, you're basically betting that Atlanta will give him more save opportunities than any other team. There's no doubt he's the best relief pitcher, but he wasn't close to leading the league in saves last season.

With Strasburg, he'll likely be spotting Verlander and Kershaw 30+ innings.

excellent post

gryfyn1 · 03-17-13, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

Pretty silly to tie your money up on that. As great as Kimbrel is, you're basically betting that Atlanta will give him more save opportunities than any other team. There's no doubt he's the best relief pitcher, but he wasn't close to leading the league in saves last season.

With Strasburg, he'll likely be spotting Verlander and Kershaw 30+ innings.

true, but Kimbrell finished 2nd and 3rd in saves the last two years and has more saves than any other reliever over the last two years, so if you're going to back anyone he makes the most sense. But the general oddness of saves makes it a crap shoot anyways, Rivera is the best reliever in the history of baseball and he;s managed to lead the league just 3 times.

seaborneq · 03-17-13, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by gryfyn1

true, but Kimbrell finished 2nd and 3rd in saves the last two years and has more saves than any other reliever over the last two years, so if you're going to back anyone he makes the most sense. But the general oddness of saves makes it a crap shoot anyways, Rivera is the best reliever in the history of baseball and he;s managed to lead the league just 3 times.

Hence the reason kimbrel is the odds on favorite. The most cumulative saves the past two seasons. Its worth a unit just to see how it plays out.

Goat Milk · 03-17-13, 06:15 PM

Look for Seaborque to bump this thread every 5-10 strikes that Strausburg throws

seaborneq · 03-17-13, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Look for Seaborque to bump this thread every 5-10 strikes that Strausburg throws

Look for goat to rubberneck at this thread like its an 80 car pileup on the interstate every time the thread is bumped.

Uprise · 03-17-13, 11:51 PM

lock...

Killer_Demo · 03-18-13, 12:22 AM

Romo +650

Ralphie Halves · 03-18-13, 05:47 AM

I like Rodney at +650 if I had to take one. TB has great pitching and a below average offense. This equals the best opportunity for the most save ops more often than not. Just like Baltimore last year, and those years Gagne had with the Dodgers.

seaborneq · 03-18-13, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie Halves

I like Rodney at +650 if I had to take one. TB has great pitching and a below average offense. This equals the best opportunity for the most save ops more often than
not. Just like Baltimore last year, and those years gagne had with the Dodgers.

Joe maddening would outsmart himself and blow that one for you.

Regul8er · 03-18-13, 11:33 AM

seaborneq....dont think there is any value with either of those wagers. I'd feel more comfortable in the +1000 to +1500 range.
Your being shortchanged.

justinsgiants · 03-18-13, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

seaborneq....dont think there is any value with either of those wagers. I'd feel more comfortable in the +1000 to +1500 range.
Your being shortchanged.

I agree. I think taking someone in the middle of the pack is a better value. I really like James Shields and David Price. Shields will be asked to lead the KC rotation and Price is playing for a new deal.

seaborneq · 03-18-13, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Regul8er

seaborneq....dont think there is any value with either of those wagers. I'd feel more comfortable in the +1000 to +1500 range.
Your being shortchanged.

Feel free to add a few names to those wonderful +1000-+1500 odds.

konck · 03-18-13, 12:30 PM

I like gio +2500 and Dickey +5000
In saves I like Romo+650

Regul8er · 03-18-13, 01:09 PM

How about +1000 on the field for saves? You basically are getting 12 or 13 closers in that pool, which would include Janssen, Betancourt, Madson, etc.

seaborneq · 03-18-13, 01:49 PM

I have only seen one "field" entry win a prop like this. Maybe two if gagne wasnt listed a few years back. Jose Batista won the home run title when he wasn't listed. Came out of no where and hasn't led the majors since.

vikingfan101 · 03-18-13, 02:33 PM

Scherzer for K's seems pretty good. What site is offering these?

seaborneq · 03-18-13, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by vikingfan101

Scherzer for K's seems pretty good. What site is offering these?

Sadly, betonline. I am making a withdrawal from them this week and leaving very few dollars in the account. I hope I get paid.

Ralphie Halves · 03-18-13, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

I have only seen one "field" entry win a prop like this. Maybe two if gagne wasnt listed a few years back. Jose Batista won the home run title when he was listed. Came out of no where and hasn't led the majors since.

And that was probably Jim Johnson last year, no?

Just remember, the juice is insane on these things. The books know nobody out there is gonna do the math, so they all price fix here.

Regul8er · 03-19-13, 07:35 AM

I bet almost anything that Jim Johnson was part of the field. It seems like every season a few gems come out of the closer spot, and I bet going back, the field always gets 2 to 3 guys top 10. That's where the value is.

seaborneq · 03-19-13, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by rjt721

Pretty silly to tie your money up on that. As great as Kimbrel is, you're basically betting that Atlanta will give him more save opportunities than any other team. There's no doubt he's the best relief pitcher, but he wasn't close to leading the league in saves last season.

With Strasburg, he'll likely be spotting Verlander and Kershaw 30+ innings.

Verlander threw 79 more innings but had only 42 more strikeouts than Stausburg last season. I'll take my chances with 30+ innings spotted to Justin Verlander.

daneblazer · 03-19-13, 10:06 AM

Romo is a sucker bet. He'll be one of the best RP's in the league but the Giants will limit his innings and amount of successive days he pitches like they always do.

daneblazer · 03-19-13, 10:09 AM

Saves are such a crap shoot. At least a third of those guys on the list won't be closing by years end. I'd probably just take "the field" and it wouldn't be for much.

Killer_Demo · 03-19-13, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by daneblazer

Romo is a sucker bet.

Must be a pissy whining dodger fan

daneblazer · 03-19-13, 12:20 PM

San Francisco Giants concerned about Sergio Romo’s workload for Mexico in WBC

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_22753134/san-francisco-giants-concerned-about-sergio-romos-workload

San Francisco Giants concerned about Sergio Romo’s workload for Mexico in WBC

Romo is as much of an injury risk as anyone on that list. If they're worried about his workload now, they will still take it easy on him in the middle of the season. Like I said, he's going to be a top notch RP, but he will have some of his save opps vultured.