Kimbrel +600 saves leader, Strausburg +600 K's leader...Looks to good to be true

[Killer_Demo]

http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci...romos-workload

Romo is as much of an injury risk as anyone on that list. If they're worried about his workload now, they will still take it easy on him in the middle of the season. Like I said, he's going to be a top notch RP, but he will have some of his save opps vultured.

he's the teams closer, he earned that position he will be closing all SFG games

[seaborneq]

And that was probably Jim Johnson last year, no?

Just remember, the juice is insane on these things. The books know nobody out there is gonna do the math, so they all price fix here.

What juice are you referring? Its a +money prop. If you win, you win a minimum of 6 times your wager, if you lose, you lose just them wager amount.

[Ralphie Halves]

What juice are you referring? Its a +money prop. If you win, you win a minimum of 6 times your wager, if you lose, you lose just them wager amount.

The realistic odds of any of those bets hitting is way higher that what's posted. Kimbrel for example, if you were to math it out (and nobody ever does, I certainly can't), is probably 10-1 or worse in real life to win it. Since you can't see the juice like you can on a standard bet, most bettors ignore it. Books take advantage of this and give people that should be going off at 10-1 or worse, 6-1 odds, and bettors take it anyway. The book's take on bets like this is massive. That's what I meant by "juice". They're fun bets, but sucker bets nonetheless.

I have a buddy and an ex girlfriend that work the ticket windows here in Vegas, and they both told me years ago to never bet on things like golf or NASCAR because of this.

[seaborneq]

The realistic odds of any of those bets hitting is way higher that what's posted. Kimbrel for example, if you were to math it out (and nobody ever does, I certainly can't), is probably 10-1 or worse in real life to win it. Since you can't see the juice like you can on a standard bet, most bettors ignore it. Books take advantage of this and give people that should be going off at 10-1 or worse, 6-1 odds, and bettors take it anyway. The book's take on bets like this is massive. That's what I meant by "juice". They're fun bets, but sucker bets nonetheless.

I have a buddy and an ex girlfriend that work the ticket windows here in Vegas, and they both told me years ago to never bet on things like golf or NASCAR because of this.

Before now I had never heard of "implied" or "inherent" juice. That is a new one to me.

[Bcatswin]

Chapman on saves leader, will be a steal in the field at +1000

[Diamond Hustler]

Before now I had never heard of "implied" or "inherent" juice. That is a new one to me.

No sense in understanding it, they are banking on the fact that you won't. They use mathematical algorithms to set these odds and make sure that no matter who wins they walk away up money, a lot of money. You may find an "edge" in picking who you think will win, but you'll never get fair odds for doing it.

[Ralphie Halves]

Before now I had never heard of "implied" or "inherent" juice. That is a new one to me.

Yeah, all the bookmakers have to do is make the lines shittier than what they should be, yet still enticing enough for people to want to bet on them. They're a lot of fun, but having my money tied up all year for a bet with crappy odds, I pass here.

[You mad bro]

Chapman on saves leader, will be a steal in the field at +1000

chapman might start .... or at least thats what i thought

[Dollars2Donuts]

I have to tell you, I need to send my soldiers (my MONEY) into battle each day for me, to capture more soldiers to bring them back to me.....why would I want to send my soldiers to be captured by the enemy, used and abused for MONTHS at a time, only to MAYBE be returned to me.

No thanks. Anything longer than 1 week is WAY to long to not have your soliders fighting the good fight.


D2D

[seaborneq]

I have to tell you, I need to send my soldiers (my MONEY) into battle each day for me, to capture more soldiers to bring them back to me.....why would I want to send my soldiers to be captured by the enemy, used and abused for MONTHS at a time, only to MAYBE be returned to me.

No thanks. Anything longer than 1 week is WAY to long to not have your soliders fighting the good fight.


D2D

A lost soldier is a lost soldier whether today or 6 months from now. You wouldn't give anyone a soldier for a soldier with an even yield and let them hold it six months, but I would give a soldier for 10 soldiers in the future.

[seaborneq]

No sense in understanding it, they are banking on the fact that you won't. They use mathematical algorithms to set these odds and make sure that no matter who wins they walk away up money, a lot of money. You may find an "edge" in picking who you think will win, but you'll never get fair odds for doing it.

Depends on what is most important to you. Picking a winner or fair odds. Many of us are taught that -110 are fair odds and we live by that and bet that, yet poo poo a +ev prop based on it being unfair odds. When in reality you should be rewarded more for risking more on an uncertain future result. Just too damned puzzling.

[Ralphie Halves]

Depends on what is most important to you. Picking a winner or fair odds. Many of us are taught that -110 are fair odds and we live by that and bet that, yet poo poo a +ev prop based on it being unfair odds. When in reality you should be rewarded more for risking more on an uncertain future result. Just too damned puzzling.

That's what we're trying to get across -- these bets are all very -ev.

[seaborneq]

[QUOTE=Ralphie Halves;18154078]That's what we're trying to get across -- these bets are all very -ev.[/QUOTE

Ralphie here is the strangest thing. A bettor will make a ML bet at +500 on the Knicks versus Jazz the other night and everybody thinks that's groovy. Not likely, but still groovy, but will poo poo a future bet for +600 just because of the hold. In real life people everyday sacrifice money today for more possible money down the road and we call that investing, yet in the betting world its looked down upon because you can't spend that unit today or tomorrow.

[Ralphie Halves]

[QUOTE=seaborneq;18154572]

That's what we're trying to get across -- these bets are all very -ev.[/QUOTE

Ralphie here is the strangest thing. A bettor will make a ML bet at +500 on the Knicks versus Jazz the other night and everybody thinks that's groovy. Not likely, but still groovy, but will poo poo a future bet for +600 just because of the hold. In real life people everyday sacrifice money today for more possible money down the road and we call that investing, yet in the betting world its looked down upon because you can't spend that unit today or tomorrow.

I don't think you're making the distinction between a standard +600 bet vs one other opponent, and a +600 bet against an entire field of people. Take "time" out of it altogether. One of them (the first one) has to be a solid line, because bettors will notice if it's not simply by looking at the line on the favorite. The other (the second one) can almost be as shady of a line as it wants to, and often is. I'm no mathamagician, but I'd say Kimbrel is more likely 10-1 or even 12-1 to win the saves title considering all of the factors that go into a season, yet lots of bettors, not just you, are more than happy to only get 6-1 on him. Music to the book's ears, as they laugh all the way to the bank.

And I'm really not trying to be a dick, bets like this are fun to play, I'm just trying to paint a picture I don't think you're seeing. There's almost nothing out there preventing books from making these lines as rapey as possible, and you can bet that they take every advantage of that.

[You mad bro]

MARIANO RIVERA 100 saves this year !!!!!!! Won't happen but it's nice to dream

[seaborneq]

[QUOTE=Ralphie Halves;18155482]

I don't think you're making the distinction between a standard +600 bet vs one other opponent, and a +600 bet against an entire field of people. Take "time" out of it altogether. One of them (the first one) has to be a solid line, because bettors will notice if it's not simply by looking at the line on the favorite. The other (the second one) can almost be as shady of a line as it wants to, and often is. I'm no mathamagician, but I'd say Kimbrel is more likely 10-1 or even 12-1 to win the saves title considering all of the factors that go into a season, yet lots of bettors, not just you, are more than happy to only get 6-1 on him. Music to the book's ears, as they laugh all the way to the bank.

And I'm really not trying to be a dick, bets like this are fun to play, I'm just trying to paint a picture I don't think you're seeing. There's almost nothing out there preventing books from making these lines as rapey as possible, and you can bet that they take every advantage of that.

So Kimbrel should be the fave, just at 10-1 or 12-1 and not 6-1?

[Ralphie Halves]

[QUOTE=seaborneq;18155888]

So Kimbrel should be the fave, just at 10-1 or 12-1 and not 6-1?

He's the best closer in the ML, and his team will win a lot this year. Probably the best choice out there yeah, but like I said, those teams that usually eek out victories end up having the saves leader more often than not. Not sure who that's gonna be this year but I'm backing Rodney. Papelbon may be worth a flier too, Phils won't crush teams as much this year. Perkins if you like long shots.

[Regul8er]

Casey Jannsen is a part of the field, and could have a shot if he holds his spot.

[daneblazer]

If you took anything, hope it was "the field"...

According to Paul Daugherty of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Aroldis Chapman will be moved back to the bullpen.

"Barring a significant change of minds," writes Daugherty, "the Reds are expected to announce [Thursday] that Chappy will close." It's what manager Dusty Baker has wanted, and what Chapman himself prefers. The Reds would probably be better off maximizing the left-hander's value in the rotation, but there's some risk that comes with that. Chapman will again be an elite fantasy closer. Jonathan Broxton will be a setup man.

[djefferis]

Verlander if you must play 1..we are talking total k's..less innings pitched with a strong pen = less K's

Saves take the field...its between 3 guys and the field..ill go with longest odds. Closer is 3 bad games away from set up man..and one pitch away from 15 day DL. There is a reason they are specialist and not starting. Starters are much more valuable to any club.

[djefferis]

To record 50+ saves, you need a scrappy team who gets a lot of comeback wins on the road.

Look for so-so teams in crappy divisions..Ala the al central in general. 82 chances and a good team can get you 10+ road saves top of the 9th over a bad road team.

[seaborneq]

Verlander, Kershaw, and Price are all playing for new contracts. They should be good bets.

Verlander has to be out of the running. No way Verlander pitches 100+ pitches late in the season with this contract.

[seaborneq]

talk me off the ledge. Going all in on Strausburg and Kimbrel.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

I have to tell you, I need to send my soldiers (my MONEY) into battle each day for me, to capture more soldiers to bring them back to me.....why would I want to send my soldiers to be captured by the enemy, used and abused for MONTHS at a time, only to MAYBE be returned to me.

No thanks. Anything longer than 1 week is WAY to long to not have your soliders fighting the good fight.


D2D

You are gambling. Playing future markets can be very +EV and are a form of investing. I agree with Rodney, Romo & Chapman. Also whoever the angels decide on closer might be great value as well

[InTheDrink]

on pace for 162!!!

[Regul8er]

At this point in the game, I'd still be very happy with the field at +1000.

Grilli tied for the league lead right now. Betancourt, Mujica, Janssen and Holland right there in the mix.

[seaborneq]

Strausberg arm is already shot.

[You mad bro]

mariano rivera

[daneblazer]

Saves are such a crap shoot. At least a third of those guys on the list won't be closing by years end. I'd probably just take "the field" and it wouldn't be for much.

Romo is a sucker bet. He'll be one of the best RP's in the league but the Giants will limit his innings and amount of successive days he pitches like they always do.

"The Field" is in

2nd w/ 27 saves (Grilli)
Two tied for 6th w/ 21 (Frieri, Mujica)
&two tied for 10th w/ 20 saves (Perkins/Chapman)

Kimbrel in 5th w/ 23
Romo in 13th w/ 19

[seaborneq]

"The Field" is in

2nd w/ 27 saves (Grilli)
Two tied for 6th w/ 21 (Frieri, Mujica)
&two tied for 10th w/ 20 saves (Perkins/Chapman)

Kimbrel in 5th w/ 23
Romo in 13th w/ 19

I still like my chances. Yu Darvish has killed the Strausberg K prop. Unreal Deal.

[Regul8er]

I liked the field bet. I may consider dropping a dime on this prop every year....blindly play the field.

[KKoz9]

No one gonna catch Yu

[seaborneq]

Kimbrel only 2 saves back, but ATL has a chokehold on the division. What crap luck I have.

[daneblazer]

Johnson & Rivera been blowing saves left and right. Watch out for Nathan. Holland & Mujica still with a punchers chance of making the "field" bet.

Almost half of the original list either lost their jobs or have been hurt.

Romo 12th overall right now

[seaborneq]

Kimbrel and Johnson are tied at 39 saves. I need to win this one.