Want to know the secret to hitting 60% of your ATS bets?

**rcene** · 03-04-13, 11:49 PM

Well you could fade Paulie and Goldengreek for starters

**ChiLLx** · 03-04-13, 11:52 PM

There's nothing Vegas can do when those teams will go out and win by 20 each game if they feel like it. The NBA is extremely top heavy right now basically no parity. It's so obvious every year you know what teams will be in conference finals and NBA finals. Bad predictable product.

**No coincidences** · 03-04-13, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

There's nothing Vegas can do when those teams will go out and win by 20 each game if they feel like it. The NBA is extremely top heavy right now basically no parity. It's so obvious every year you know what teams will be in conference finals and NBA finals. Bad predictable product.

What do you mean there's nothing they can do? Adjust the lines accordingly.

Agree re: top-heavy NBA though. League is an awful product right now.

**Aaron McCrevice** · 03-05-13, 12:04 AM

60% in the past not same as 60% in the future

**innovation** · 03-05-13, 12:04 AM

I think by having a suspect line they get more action on the scrub then if they basically admit there is no chance. It's not like they will put a 20 something spread out there and how do you cover blowout games anyways?

For example Orlando Sunday at -8 and dropped to -7.5 someplaces. Just enough doubt to stir a little action.

Besides sharps don't really bet square do they unless they are expecting movement to buy out of it and middle.

**vyomguy** · 03-05-13, 12:06 AM

This year in nba is different from most other years. Lot of changes in many teams. Books dont have a clue this year.

Lets have a look at the teams which have had significant roster changes or key pieces being moved or key pieces being injured:-

76ers
nuggets
lakers
pacers (granger out most of season)
mavs (dirk out most of season)
rockets
magic
hornets
wizards
wolves (love out most of season)
bulls (rose out most of season)
nets
hawks
celtics
raptors
suns

In all the above teams..one of thes things happened:-

- star player traded out / traded in
- star player injured
- significant changes to rosters

Never seen this many changes to this many nba teams in a single year. BOOKS HAVE NO CLUE THIS YEAR.

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-05-13, 12:06 AM

What do you expect to see -17-25 every game? They can only put them so high

Clippers were -17 and covered that by half

**ChiLLx** · 03-05-13, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

What do you mean there's nothing they can do? Adjust the lines accordingly.

Agree re: top-heavy NBA though. League is an awful product right now.

What so you think Books should make Thunder -20 at home every game? They'd probably still cover anyway.

**InTheDrink** · 03-05-13, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

What so you think Books should make Thunder -20 at home every game? They'd probably still cover anyway.

books made the 07 pats three td favs because they were destroying everyone even though it was unheard of....why wouldnt they do it when its expected with these nba teams?

**Rone247** · 03-05-13, 12:15 AM

Not understanding. Why not just bet them instead of Vegas putting out outrageous lines? If you see this, why not exploit it.

**bjb7223** · 03-05-13, 12:16 AM

fade the fuking bobcats

**ChiLLx** · 03-05-13, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by InTheDrink

books made the 07 pats three td favs because they were destroying everyone even though it was unheard of....why wouldnt they do it when its expected with these nba teams?

That's true but NFL is a little different. Second half of that season books adjusted and Pats were bad ATS.

**Aaron McCrevice** · 03-05-13, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you'd taken the Heat, Spurs and Thunder every game to this date, while going against Charlotte, you'd be 139-94 -- or .597 percent.

Seriously, how can Vegas let this happen? Next to the Lakers, I guarantee the top three teams are the most bet on in the NBA -- and I also guarantee people go against the Bobcats the most.

Was looking at some stats today and came across this surprising statistic. Thunder (No. 1), Spurs (No. 6) and Heat (No. 10) are all in the Top-10 ATS, while Charlotte is a league-worst 20-38. Denver, Indiana and the Clippers are all in the Top-10 ATS as well (all hitting over 56%).

Tighten it up, Vegas. Unacceptable.

Spurs have been break-even ATS since 12/10 and OKC is +2.2 units since 12/4, so the adjustment was clearly made long ago

betting Lakers/fading B-cats is basically a wash, maybe small net profit of couple of units fading B-cats

bottom line is books have much better grip on the situation than most people think...

**cockblocker** · 03-05-13, 12:25 AM

Throw in overs on Kings, Nuggets and Warriors and your well over 60%.

**TwoWays** · 03-05-13, 12:27 AM

NC, spend some more time with your familly. Vegas doesn't need you giving out insider information.

**No coincidences** · 03-05-13, 12:47 AM

Originally posted by Aaron McCrevice

60% in the past not same as 60% in the future

It's not like it's a small sample size. We're 20 games away from the end of the season.

**ApricotSinner32** · 03-05-13, 05:14 AM

Nocoin settle down books always find a way to win even if its not a conventional way. They always have angles guy

**R.P. McMurphy** · 03-05-13, 06:36 AM

You can add the Wizards to the list as well 35-22-1 a.t.s

**ApricotSinner32** · 03-05-13, 06:57 AM

Nocoin i'll give ya a small hint. Some games have 30 times the ammount of volume. Not all games are created equal.

**sportsbetwin** · 03-05-13, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by R.P. McMurphy

You can add the Wizards to the list as well 35-22-1 a.t.s

And here you have one of the worst teams with one of the best ATS records

**leetreaper** · 03-05-13, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by rcene

Well you could fade Paulie and Goldengreek for starters

**DOM-Ganador** · 03-05-13, 08:51 AM

Monday Morning Freakin` Quarterbackin`
I guess if you have time NC, I bet you can come up with many trends hitting 60% or better in the past.

**underal** · 03-05-13, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by DOM-Ganador

Monday Morning Freakin` Quarterbackin`
I guess if you have time NC, I bet you can come up with many trends hitting 60% or better in the past.

indeed. it is easy to find these looking back ,another looking ahead. try to predict something now that will hit 60% for the rest of the season and see if you succeed.

**No coincidences** · 03-05-13, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

Nocoin i'll give ya a small hint. Some games have 30 times the ammount of volume. Not all games are created equal.

No, really?

The books are just lucky that the Lakers have been so horrific ATS-wise (second-worst behind the Bobcats). With that being said, though, having three of the league's four marquee teams (though I'm sure the Spurs aren't wagered on as much as even the Clippers) clicking along at nearly 60% has to create some issues. We're not talking 10 or even 20 games into the season. We're at 75% now. If the Yankees and Red Sox were hitting at nearly 60% ATS on -110 and -115 bets, it would be a problem. Oddsmakers never want to take the complexity and unpredictability out of gambling, but this NBA season has done both.

**No coincidences** · 03-05-13, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by underal

indeed. it is easy to find these looking back ,another looking ahead. try to predict something now that will hit 60% for the rest of the season and see if you succeed.

You can always find trends that hit at 60% in a given season. That's not the point. The point is who is hitting at 60%. Backing the teams with the best records in the league and fading the teams with the worst is not supposed to produce a 60% ATS rate.

**lakerboy** · 03-05-13, 10:05 AM

Not one person has bet the heat/spurs and okc every game. Not one.

**No coincidences** · 03-05-13, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Not one person has bet the heat/spurs and okc every game. Not one.

That's too bad, because you'd be doing incredibly well.

**underal** · 03-05-13, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

You can always find trends that hit at 60% in a given season. That's not the point. The point is who is hitting at 60%. Backing the teams with the best records in the league and fading the teams with the worst is not supposed to produce a 60% ATS rate.

I hear your point NC but I still say that looking back you can find all kinds of anamolies. Sometimes it is the best teams at 60% ats sometimes the worst teams 60% ats. I defy anyone to name a trend that will hit at 60% even for the next month or so left.

**pavyracer** · 03-05-13, 10:15 AM

The secret to hitting 60% of your bets is not losing 40% of your bets.

**Bdolan33** · 03-05-13, 10:17 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you'd taken the Heat, Spurs and Thunder every game to this date, while going against Charlotte, you'd be 139-94 -- or .597 percent.

Seriously, how can Vegas let this happen? Next to the Lakers, I guarantee the top three teams are the most bet on in the NBA -- and I also guarantee people go against the Bobcats the most.

Was looking at some stats today and came across this surprising statistic. Thunder (No. 1), Spurs (No. 6) and Heat (No. 10) are all in the Top-10 ATS, while Charlotte is a league-worst 20-38. Denver, Indiana and the Clippers are all in the Top-10 ATS as well (all hitting over 56%).

Tighten it up, Vegas. Unacceptable.

How did you come up with that statistic?

**Stocks** · 03-05-13, 10:18 AM

So good teams cover and bad teams don't? You just figured out sports betting.

**No coincidences** · 03-05-13, 10:37 AM

Originally posted by Stocks

So good teams cover and bad teams don't? You just figured out sports betting.

Actually, it should be a variation of the opposite. But this is the point here -- that people are now under the assumption that in the NBA, most good teams cover at a nearly 60% rate and bad teams cover at a 40% rate.

**hughesn2** · 03-05-13, 11:43 AM

Over/Under is the same way fro betting OVER for Golden State and Denver and better UNDER for Washington and Charlotte

But at the same time it is also smart to look at their spread record AWAY vs. HOME

Best HOME ATS record: OKC (21-9), Denver (20-9), Houston (19-10), Indiana (19-12),
Worst HOME ATS records: Chicago (9-22), Charlotte (8-20), Orlando (10-22), Milwaukee (10-19), Phoenix (10-19)

Best AWAY ATS record: Wizards (17-9), Chicago (18-11), New Orleans (19-11), Cavaliers (19-12), Dallas (19-12)
Worst AWAY ATS record: Lakers (10-19), Charlotte (11-19), Utah (11-18), Portland (11-18)

So sometimes it is smart to look at that. If you had picked the Thunder for EVERY game rather than just their HOME spread games then you would be losing money b/c the Thunder are an even .500 ATS on the Road.

**hughesn2** · 03-05-13, 11:48 AM

Way I look at it is it would actually be smart to just blindly bet ON the OVER for EVERY Denver Nuggets game and you are bound to be over 60%. They are 10-3 O/U since February 1st, 4-2 home & 6-1 away. All season long they are 37-23 O/U and 38-22 ATS. Way I look at it is if you had just blindly bet on Denver at OVER and pick Denver for the spread in every game your record would be 75-45.
Same thing with the Warriors:

GS

(10-4)

(3-1) home

(7-3) AWAY

And GS all season long is 38-22 O/U. One of those tips for one of those A,B,C bet type systems.
Similar thing with the Washington Wizards, but OPPOSITE. Select the UNDER on all of the Wizards AWAY games and are 6-0 since Feb1 and all season long would be 21-6.
Portland: 10 of last 12 games have gone OVER

The last week I just realized these trends and what I did for the O/U was pick the best 4 and worst 4 up until then in February and this is what I got (since 2/25): PORT (2-0), DENV (2-1), GS (3-1), SAC (3-1) and (against so a win is an UNDER) WSH (3-0), CHA (3-0), PHIL (3-1), TOR (3-1)
Using just these 8 teams my record for O/U was 22-5

Look at VegasInsider and you will find the best trends to use as a system that is near flawless!