Take 16 and 15 seed ML's.

[ChalkyDog]

Obviously, if you look up this historically, you will see this as a gargantuan loser.

This year, might be fun on taking a shot early in the dance.

If there is a time where a 1 can lose first rd, this has to be it.

[InTheDrink]

according to k13 and konck you should be able to get +40000 ML on each 16 seed

[mynameismud]

already been tons of these threads. i guess this year has the upset potential more so than any other year. i still say all 4 1's win their 1st round and at least 3 of the 2's survive. i see a lot of 6-12's making it very far.

[tto827]

I don't think any ones lose, maybe a two but I doubt it. While the top teams aren't dominate, I've yet to see strong mid-major squads besides the ones looking at worst a 10-11 seed.

I agree with Mud, from 3-7 seeds there won't be much differentiation in talent.

[BuddyBear]

Actually, the probability of a #16 having beat a #1 seed by now is the same as all #1 seeds making the Final Four (which happened the year Kansas won the title over Memphis, 2008 I think). So in a way, we are overdue for a #16 seed to win.

[innovation]

To much is made of regular season road losses which will have little in comparison to must win tourney games on a neutral court. If anything the players and coaching staff should be even more aware as they all have had wake up calls.

[milwaukee mike]

You guys are ignoring the fact that these 15 and 16 seeds are still total crap, and some of them have to play an extra game in the "first 4"

[InTheDrink]

You guys are ignoring the fact that these 15 and 16 seeds are still total crap, and some of them have to play an extra game in the "first 4"

the extra game doesnt matter....vcu made the final four after playing the play in

but agree on your first point....16 teams are usually from conferences like the swac and atlantic sun and not even teams that won the reg season

[SHADYLANKY]

I agree the 16 seeds are usually crap. Hard to bet them ML. The 15's we will have to wait and see if there is one we think has a chance at a upset.

[mynameismud]

Actually, the probability of a #16 having beat a #1 seed by now is the same as all #1 seeds making the Final Four (which happened the year Kansas won the title over Memphis, 2008 I think). So in a way, we are overdue for a #16 seed to win.

no such thing as "overdue" in complete randomness. each entity is separate. just like in roulette...when red hits like 10 times in a row, people go crazy and bet black because its "due". no such thing.

[BuddyBear]

no such thing as "overdue" in complete randomness. each entity is separate. just like in roulette...when red hits like 10 times in a row, people go crazy and bet black because its "due". no such thing.

Right, except for the fact that any event with a probability > 0, when simulated an infinite number of times will eventually happen. Sooner or later, a #16 seed will win just like sooner or later it was bound that all four #1 seeds would make the Final Four in the same year. There have been a few close calls already for #16 seeds so we'll see.

[k13]

Right, except for the fact that any event with a probability > 0, when simulated an infinite number of times will eventually happen. Sooner or later, a #16 seed will win just like sooner or later it was bound that all four #1 seeds would make the Final Four in the same year. There have been a few close calls already for #16 seeds so we'll see.

Lot easier for #1 seeds to make final four than some #16 winning...

[InTheDrink]

Right, except for the fact that any event with a probability > 0, when simulated an infinite number of times will eventually happen. Sooner or later, a #16 seed will win just like sooner or later it was bound that all four #1 seeds would make the Final Four in the same year. There have been a few close calls already for #16 seeds so we'll see.

the close calls have not been in the recent past....and there have only been a couple, if even that many...g'town princeton is the only one i can think of

[BuddyBear]

Lot easier for #1 seeds to make final four than some #16 winning...

Yes, it is easier for a #1 seed to make the Final Four but for all them to make the Final Four in the same year has about the same probability as a #16 seed beating a #1 seed. So what I am saying is that since the former has now happened, sooner or later the latter will happen.

[BuddyBear]

the close calls have not been in the recent past....and there have only been a couple, if even that many...g'town princeton is the only one i can think of

Come again?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/syracuse-avoids-being-first-no-215916700--ncaab.html

[InTheDrink]

Come again?

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/syracus...00--ncaab.html

must have drank too much that day

[rm18]

UNC Asheville last year had about a 27% chance to beat Syracuse