Let's go to POUND TOWN for UFC on Fuel TV8!!!

[BIGDAY]

You arent supposed to say things like that, man, because I agree with it, I'm not supposed to agree with you.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Wanna, you have any strong plays today??

Because it's a BIGDAY classic, this needs to be said:

Diego Canchez is going down tonight, kamikaze style.

Airboxing.
Failed TDs.
Hard gassing.





... wins decision

[Sacrelicious]

I can't bet on a Gomi fight, ever, the guy is so inconsistent and unpredictable that there is no way I can properly cap any fight he is involved in.

[BIGDAY]

Because it's a BIGDAY classic, this needs to be said:

Diego Canchez is going down tonight, kamikaze style.

Airboxing.
Failed TDs.
Hard gassing.





... wins decision

Fukken Canchez.

Guy should be favored. But he should only be a -200 fav IMO. I've learned to steer clear of his fights all together.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

I can't bet on a Gomi fight, ever, the guy is so inconsistent and unpredictable that there is no way I can properly cap any fight he is involved in.

Yeah, fair enough.

But even if you don't have confidence in Gomi's level of consistency, there are enough reasons IMO to fade the hell out of a -300 fighter (OK he's since dropped to -250) who has ring rust, recent shoulder surgery, traveling east-to-west to Japan, hasn't fought at 155 since BJ freaking Penn was still the reigning champ and had a brutal cut where he was drier than an atrophic vagina.

Gomi looked sharp in his fight with Danzig. His TDD is tailormade for Diego's sloppy, relentless style which will be more taxed by his brutal weigh-cut. Gomi is also a very crisp counterstriker and Diego is a brawler, first & foremost.

Diego needs to force a scramble and get Gomi in a bad spot to grab a choke... considering Mac Danzig, a BJJ BB who's tapped Bocek was unable to finish Gomi by guillotine or leglock, I have less confidence that Diego can pull it off for the first time in his UFC career than most. (sorry, subbing cans on TUF doesn't count).

So it comes down to Diego by decision. Can he be competitive in the standup and get opportunistic TDs? It's possible but not nearly as likely as people would be led to believe. Stylistically, Gomi is a bad matchup for him (I think a lot of people are approaching it as "Gomi KOs people and Sanchez has never been KOed. Therefore, Sanchez all day!!! Amirite??!!). Also, after the atrocious decision to Kampmann, it's certainly possible that Diego gets smashed for 3 rounds but steals a decision. So, yeah, decision is his most likely path to victory here.

With everything said, I see no justification for betting a fighter fraught with question marks @ implied odds of 70+% and a genuine argument in favour of betting Gomi depending upon how strongly you weigh the factors.

[Beelzebubzy]

Fukken Canchez.

Guy should be favored. But he should only be a -200 fav IMO. I've learned to steer clear of his fights all together.

Jake Ellenberger

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Anyways, I didn't mean to derail your Brian The All-American Can Thread, but since you asked BIGDAY, those are my thoughts on my preferred play for UFC on Fuel 8.

[Beelzebubzy]

Gomi gives up his back more than Jenna Jameson.

Shane Roller choked him out.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Gomi gives up his back more than Jenna Jameson.

Shane Roller choked him out.

LOL. No he didn't. They've never even fought dude.

Roller was legit back in the WEC day: he RNC'ed Castillo, Njokuani, Varner.

When did this imaginary fight happen? Was it when Roller was a beast or a can?

[Kpn]

Is Lombard not more favored like -300ish because of his debut? Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't it come out that he was very injured before his lackluster UFC debut loss but was afraid to pull out of the fight?

[The iron sheik]

Well Wanderlei is pretty shot and it's time to get out, or share a retirement home with Gary Goodridge...but Stann? I wouldn't exactly put a truckload of money on a guy whose biggest win is ...uh, Leben.

That said, I'm out of this one and gl to everyone putting money on Stann.

[Beelzebubzy]

LOL. No he didn't. They've never even fought dude.

Roller was legit back in the WEC day: he RNC'ed Castillo, Njokuani, Varner.

When did this imaginary fight happen? Was it when Roller was a beast or a can?

Varner gives up his back too much as well. Njoukani has no grappling chops.

Shane roller Choked out Gomi in GC

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=130999793582144&comments

http://www.firstpost.com/topic/person/shane-roller-combat-wrestling-takanori-gomi-video-dqHFX2sTx6w-89013-17.html

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2010/05/takanori-gomi-vs-shane-roller-added-to-ufc-fan-expo-grappling-tournament

Step up your research game son.

[raydog]

Ov 1.5rds. -135 (5d)

[NunyaBidness]

Varner gives up his back too much as well. Njoukani has no grappling chops.

Shane roller Choked out Gomi in GC

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=130999793582144&comments

http://www.firstpost.com/topic/person/shane-roller-combat-wrestling-takanori-gomi-video-dqHFX2sTx6w-89013-17.html

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2010/05/takanori-gomi-vs-shane-roller-added-to-ufc-fan-expo-grappling-tournament

Step up your research game son.

Beez says "If you're comin' on, then come on!"

[MD]

Varner gives up his back too much as well. Njoukani has no grappling chops.

Shane roller Choked out Gomi in GC

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=130999793582144&comments

http://www.firstpost.com/topic/person/shane-roller-combat-wrestling-takanori-gomi-video-dqHFX2sTx6w-89013-17.html

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2010/05/takanori-gomi-vs-shane-roller-added-to-ufc-fan-expo-grappling-tournament

Step up your research game son.

This reminds me of that moment in Edgar/Aldo where Edgar shot for a double leg and Aldo smacked him into the floor like a kid falling off a swing.

[The iron sheik]

Played for the night (or will play):

Lombard
Sanchez

...that's about it. Then again, less plays means less losing shit. 2013 sucks rhinoceros dik.

Lombard to me with the current odds (-200) seems a good bet. Okami doesn't have the tools to take him down and molest him, and I doubt he can keep Lombard off him with all the exchanges.

I love to hate Sanchez, but Gomi is absolutely done.

[BIGDAY]

Ov 1.5rds. -135 (5d)

I do like this fight to go longer than expected. Temped to put a tiny bit on Stann by dec.

[BIGDAY]

Jake Ellenberger

Will make video for that one. Not sure yet, but it might be my bounce back MAX wager after that Fitch debacle.

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Varner gives up his back too much as well. Njoukani has no grappling chops.

Shane roller Choked out Gomi in GC

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=130999793582144&comments

http://www.firstpost.com/topic/person/shane-roller-combat-wrestling-takanori-gomi-video-dqHFX2sTx6w-89013-17.html

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2010/05/takanori-gomi-vs-shane-roller-added-to-ufc-fan-expo-grappling-tournament

Step up your research game son.

LOL I was not aware of this grappling match but it has trivial, if any, relevance to properly capping Gomi vs Sanchez.

Gomi lost an exhibition grappling match vs Roller in his prime (the final article even refers to Shane as a "LW WEC title contender"). Geez. Not an MMA match but a grappling match where Gomi's biggest weapons are taken away.

LOL. There's no other viable outcome than Gomi getting tapped in that situation... he doesn't survive for long in deep waters. I made this pretty clear in my write up even.

This has less relevance to capping Gomi/Sanchez than using the footage of Roy Nelson tapping Mir out to come to the conclusion that Roy would have the grappling edge in their MMA fight.

[Sacrelicious]

Will make video for that one. Not sure yet, but it might be my bounce back MAX wager after that Fitch debacle.

This.

[CDMKMP]

Wandy barely has a brain up in his head these days, they just trot him out for the fans he draws.

Hardly ever expect him to win the fight here no matter who the opponent is, unless it's another punchdrunk fighter who shoulda gracefully bowed out years ago.

[Louisvillekid1]

Ill meet up in pound town for next wager,

bigday cashes the next one, :yup:

[fitguy67]

Stann is a can. He does have power though, and Wandy has a deteriorated chin. -260 still seems steep.

Agree...I think Struve, now at -185-ish (i got it 30mins ago at SIA's maybe-still-available "stale" price of -175) is much better pound-material.

[fitguy67]

Yeah, fair enough.

Gomi ...His TDD is tailormade for Diego's sloppy, relentless style which will be more taxed by his brutal weigh-cut. Gomi is also a very crisp counterstriker and Diego is a brawler, first & foremost.

Diego needs to force a scramble and get Gomi in a bad spot to grab a choke... considering Mac Danzig, a BJJ BB who's tapped Bocek was unable to finish Gomi by guillotine or leglock, I have less confidence that Diego can pull it off for the first time in his UFC career than most. (sorry, subbing cans on TUF doesn't count).

So it comes down to Diego by decision. Can he be competitive in the standup and get opportunistic TDs? It's possible but not nearly as likely as people would be led to believe. Stylistically, Gomi is a bad matchup for him (I think a lot of people are approaching it as "Gomi KOs people and Sanchez has never been KOed. Therefore, Sanchez all day!!! Amirite??!!).

With everything said, I see no justification for betting a fighter fraught with question marks @ implied odds of 70+% and a genuine argument in favour of betting Gomi depending upon how strongly you weigh the factors.

Convincing...to the point that I found the best price currently available (+240 at b365)...and hedged my ass out of the Sanchez -277 I had locked in early in the week...

In financial investment the logo is "when in doubt...get/stay out"...thanks for planting a seed of logical doubt about the drawbacks to Diego's relentless "bull in a china shop" style. I'd rather have the cash i had on Sanchez back in my bank...

With no bet on now, I can just sit back and watch what could very well be a FOTN barn-burner...which are characteristically as difficult to predict as they are easy to enjoy.

[PaperTrail07]

heres my plays

Fighting - 24102 B. Stann -295 for Game
Fighting - 24106 S. Struve -200 for Game
Fighting - 24113 Y. Okami +170 for Game
Fighting - 24122 D.H. Kim -225 for Game
Fighting - 24126 B. Tavares -125 for Game
Fighting - 24129 B. Caraway +185 for Game
Fighting - 24133 C. Marcello +100 for Game
Fighting - 24138 A. Caceres -110 for Game

[Kermit]

Struve is the best play on the card IMO. He should sub Hunt rather easily.

[Kermit]

heres my plays

Fighting - 24102 B. Stann -295 for Game
Fighting - 24106 S. Struve -200 for Game
Fighting - 24113 Y. Okami +170 for Game
Fighting - 24122 D.H. Kim -225 for Game
Fighting - 24126 B. Tavares -125 for Game
Fighting - 24129 B. Caraway +185 for Game
Fighting - 24133 C. Marcello +100 for Game
Fighting - 24138 A. Caceres -110 for Game

Same exact plays here, except for Stann.

[BIGDAY]

heres my plays

Fighting - 24102 B. Stann -295 for Game
Fighting - 24106 S. Struve -200 for Game
Fighting - 24113 Y. Okami +170 for Game
Fighting - 24122 D.H. Kim -225 for Game
Fighting - 24126 B. Tavares -125 for Game
Fighting - 24129 B. Caraway +185 for Game
Fighting - 24133 C. Marcello +100 for Game
Fighting - 24138 A. Caceres -110 for Game

Absolutly!

You cash tonight IMO.

[BIGDAY]

Stann to -300.

[Vaughany]

LOL I was not aware of this grappling match but it has trivial, if any, relevance to properly capping Gomi vs Sanchez.

Gomi lost an exhibition grappling match vs Roller in his prime (the final article even refers to Shane as a "LW WEC title contender"). Geez. Not an MMA match but a grappling match where Gomi's biggest weapons are taken away.

LOL. There's no other viable outcome than Gomi getting tapped in that situation... he doesn't survive for long in deep waters. I made this pretty clear in my write up even.

This has less relevance to capping Gomi/Sanchez than using the footage of Roy Nelson tapping Mir out to come to the conclusion that Roy would have the grappling edge in their MMA fight.

Where is this footage exactly?

[NunyaBidness]

What did Bill Paxton say in Lost Highway? "I like to remember things the way I remember them, not necessarily the way they happened."

[BIGDAY]

Vaughany, rumor has it youre hammered.

[Vaughany]

Vaughany, rumor has it youre hammered.

haha how do you know?! Just got back from doing a "Monopoly Pub Crawl" in London which started at 11am this morning. Now 01:30 and I'm struggling big time!

[Vaughany]

What did Bill Paxton say in Lost Highway? "I like to remember things the way I remember them, not necessarily the way they happened."

hahaaha

[BIGDAY]

haha how do you know?! Just got back from doing a "Monopoly Pub Crawl" in London which started at 11am this morning. Now 01:30 and I'm struggling big time!

Love me some Pub Crawls!!