Fairly new to betting but I was wondering about strategy with betting big underdogs moneylines in basketball. Everything that I know says that we should be looking to in our own perspective find value in the long term and win long term. Say team A is +2000 against team B on a given night. This tells me personally that they are basically expected to win 1 out of 20 games in this situation. Say you disagree with that and think they win 3 out of 20. Would it be a wise strategy to take them since you think they win 3 out of 20 that would roughly equate to a +667 moneyline and you are getting . This is all just how I see it I am just wondering if this is a good strategy or am I totally off base here? Looking for any advice or strategy in this situation.
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Basically what you are describing is a +EV situation. These are the bets you should make. When a line says 1 out of 20, and you hit 5 out of 20, you are obviously going to do well.
The problem is, the books are pretty sharp, and 98% of people guess wrong on how many times out of 20 that team would actually win.Comment -
Just curious.. how would you calculate that a team wins 3 out of 20, as opposed to 1 out of 20???Comment -
Why would that apply only to big underdogs? It applies to every bet.Originally posted by gbpackComment