Please Tell Me Why Betting Football Is Not 50-50??

[jjgold]

I am talking about pointspreads .How can that be??

If Indy is -7.5 why would be any less or more than 50% to win the bet.

If you look at long term team pointspread standings they always hover around 50% .

You can pick out of a hat and have same excact % chance as guy studying stats all day.

[tacomax]

For the love of God.

Are you really a professional gambler who has fallen on hard times or someone who's squarer than a square in a square box?

[jjgold]

Taxy it is 50% know matter how you look at it

2 outcomes

real easy pal

[tacomax]

I bet you never fly, jjgold. I mean when you get on a plane you're either going to die on the plane or not die on the plane.

That's 2 outcomes. That's a 50% chance of dying each time you step on a plane, right?

[jjgold]

If they play 100 times the +7.5 will come in right around 50 times

So in concluding you can pick the game out of a hat and have same results as the guy who is handicapping

[tacomax]

If Indy starts out at -7.5, then you say it's a 50-50 bet.

If the line moves to -10, then you say it's a 50-50 bet.

If the line moves from -7.5 to -10 then is your original bet still a 50-50 bet?

[jjgold]

Taxy stop trying to trick me you sly devil

All I am saying is +7.5 is a 50% chance of winning and the guy that studies stats all day vs the guy picking out of a hat has the same chance of winning.

[tacomax]

If you know of some information which you know will shift the lines to -10 from -7.5 then your bet at -7.5 is no longer a 50/50 bet.

If you are watching the lines and see that the handicap has moved from -7.5 to -10 at most books in the last 5 minutes then getting a bet on at a slower book at -7.5 makes it no longer a 50/50 bet.

[sjelveh]

JJ technically your right you are either going to win or lose but juice plays a part of the house edge. So if you make two 100 bets and split them your still down 10 bucks. So you need to be better then 50% to win money.

[jjgold]

sjelveh you are correct guy

[Trouble Maker]

unless its Indy -7.5 vs San Fran, then it is not really 50/50 is it? More like 80/20.

OBTW,

JJ you enter the Prick contest yet? Waiting to see those Beaut's

[raiders72001]

JJ- I'll tell you why sports betting isn't 50/50 in the casinos. In the old days when a craps table was hot the pit boss would call over a "cooler". The "cooler" would just put his hand on the table on within a roll or two they would 7 out.

I once saw this at the Stardust on a Saturday when both hoops and NCAA football was going on. Players were going nuts hooping and hollaring, winning all their sports plays. It seemed as though everyone was winning.

Well the casino called over the cooler. He started shaking hands and congratulating the winners. Within 30 minutes the place was dead silent as everyone started losing.

Now why don't casinos use coolers anymore? If I didn't see this first hand I never would have believed it but never underestimate a cooler.

[tacomax]

Well the casino called over the cooler. He started shaking hands and congratulating the winners. Within 30 minutes the place was dead silent as everyone started losing.

Were his hands laced with anthrax?

[rm18]

Betting NFL is hard, I had a good week at 10-4 but I was under 50% last year, although that is just me picking the board I do make money.

Obviously plenty of lines are bad you just have to know which ones are, I'm sitting on Michigan St. +6 this week because I got it in the preseason, you want Michigan -6 at even +200 cause I'll give it to you.

So your telling me if they play again in the championship Louisville has a 50/50 to beat South Florida by three touchdowns?, obviously lines are way off sometimes, its just hard to know which ones.

[mad]

JJ you moron,

Handicapping has absolutely no effect on the outcome of the game. You realise that the teams don't actually start with -7.5 points on the scoreboard. Nor does the NFL subtract or add points to the scores at the end. In fact handicapping has very little to do with the outcome of the game.

Spreads were introduced by BOOKIES to enable them to balance their books, ie. entince some punters to wager on both teams by "handicapping" them, +/- some points. Point spreads have absolutley no effect on the two teams taking the field, or their style of play. Therefore they have no effect on the likely result of the game. Spreads are only concerned with BETTING on the predicted outcome as a result of playing the game. That is why bookies create 50/50 markets, in order to balance their books. The market is 50/50 not the ability of either team to win. Consequently, your remarks about 'why bother they are all 50/50 chances' or words to that effect is ridiculous and unfounded.

Perhaps if you understood what it is you are talking about you would not make such stupid comments nor owe so much money. But if you like you can continue to pick your selections from a hat, whilst i and everyone else that has a little understanding of what is actually going on will continue with our useless stats looking for an edge over fools such as yourself.

[pags11]

JJ, I agree here, I think paying the juice on games with pointspreads is BS...but, then that's why online books are taking so much of Vegas/ Reno/ NJ's business with their bonuses and reduced juiced lines...

[jjgold]

In the NFL you can bet 50 Dimes a game , In baseball your lucky to get down 2 dimes

Higher limits =bigger sucker bets

[jjgold]

Amost every NFL pointspread winner comes down to turnovers

So go crunch your numbers and handicap who is going to fumble on the 10 yard line

[mad]

I will and while i'm at it i'll flip a few coins for ya, see if that helps me any. Might try tea leaves after that and perhaps the good old trusty rabbits foot for luck. You use those methods don't you?

[jjgold]

Mad I am up 12,140 so far the last 2 weeks

[mad]

Wouldn't let Raiders here you say that.

[rm18]

That turnovers thing is slightly overrated, just because it is a little of that chicken and the egg thing because a team falls behind and forces the ball down the field and throws picks.