MANNY PACQUIAO I'm on him

[SBR_John]

I'm not backing up the truck but I like the value at +150ish and I like this fight to go the distance.

Of course Im worried about the KO. Manny was practically knocked out by a near nobody Mexican, forget his name, last year at a fight I attended. If his plan is to come and brawl then it could be hard for him to win. Oscar has lost some power but is still a deadly finisher if he can get a guy in trouble.

But what I see is a pure boxing match. Each round close. Manny could win this on points. I expect him to be far less aggressive. Manny is hard to hit when he wants to be. Maybe the key is if he can find a good work around to Oscar's jab which I could see Oscar throwing 15 times a round if hes smart and he is.

[pico]

loser. manny is fighting above his weight and oscar is fighting below.

[Matt Rain]

Value at +150? Really? On a natural featherweight fighting a light middleweight?

I'll be rooting for Manny, but no way there's any value on him. He is a total square play at that price, sorry to say.

[SBR_John]

Value at +150? Really? On a natural featherweight fighting a light middleweight?

I'll be rooting for Manny, but no way there's any value on him. He is a total square play at that price, sorry to say.

You think? He would be in Oscar's prime but this is an aging and slower Oscar against a guy who can score, play D and steal rounds. I do worry aboy Oscar out foxing manny and get him in a little trouble and finsih him. But for +150 I'll take the chance manny knows what to do. I'd make it a Pick. When they step in the ring this will be very close.

[teaserpleaser]

Once you see OSCAR next to manny in the ring (oscar of course is the bigger man)and after about 3 rounds you will notice Oscar is the much better boxer and that Manny has no chance at the Ko. Even a past his prime Oscar is a much better Boxer than Manny you will see come this weekend. Only way Manny wins this is by a punchers chance... The KO and if he can do that then my bookie can have my $$$ because the golden Boy has a A+ chin. Odd as it sounds OSCAR -200 might drop Sbr John not the only one on Pac-man

[pico]

the entire phillipine nation is on pac-man

[teaserpleaser]

the entire phillipine nation is on pac-man

I hope they bet on him then so i can get the Golden Boy at a better Price

[pico]

i am on the golden boy too.

[Matt Rain]

You think? He would be in Oscar's prime but this is an aging and slower Oscar against a guy who can score, play D and steal rounds. I do worry aboy Oscar out foxing manny and get him in a little trouble and finsih him. But for +150 I'll take the chance manny knows what to do. I'd make it a Pick. When they step in the ring this will be very close.

John, no one knows for sure how this fight will play out, but guys who come up in weight usually lose a lot of what makes them special at their natural weight. Manny will lose speed - mind you, he'll still be the faster man, but he won't be able to stun Oscar at 147, and that might be the key to the fight - if Oscar senses that he cannot be hurt, he will start coming forward and gladly take two punches for every one he throws. Keep in mind that Oscar is fake righty too - he really is a left-hander using the orthodox stance to get his strong hand in front. If he's able to establish his jab, he'll bust Manny's face open during the mid to late rounds. And if he's able to land his left hook consistently, forget about it... it's lights out for Manny, and it could happen at any point in the fight.

I make Manny about a +400 dog. Tremendous value on Oscar. I don't wanna bet it, but it looks like I'll have to put my money where my mouth is and throw a unit on Goldie.

[Matt Rain]

Manny can win, but he has little to no margin of error. He needs to be the faster, more active man for 12 rounds, and he has to avoid catching Oscar's left. Get in range, throw a couple of punches and quickly get out of range. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Loooong fight for Manny.

[pico]

i think john spends too much time with his phillipino gf.

[Matt Rain]

About Oscar being "old" - he is past his prime, but he's still an effective fighter - one of the most well-rounded of the last 25-30 years, IMO. If he keeps his body in proper shape, he'll still be effective in 10 years.

His lackluster showings of late have more to do with him not being all that motivated. He's been a promoter more than a boxer these past 4-5 years. That said, I doubt he makes the mistake of taking Pacquiao lightly, and having seen recent pics of him, he seems to be in fantastic shape.

[JsmooveFTW]

don't forget about the full 6 inch reach advantage. Arum and GBP say this will not be a boxing match. What to believe of that who knows, but I see it ending up like the Forbes fight, with DLH dominating on points but still getting his face busted up. The only difference in the two fights is Pac will not look like the clear-faced Forbes, will get hit a lot more and is likely to be stopped. DLH wasn't going to KO Forbes. You just can't knock him down even when you get a good shot on him. I see Pac getting knocked down several times and finally stopped 9th round or so. Either way DLH will win. The real value here is to take DLH. I haven't seen such value in a fight since Castillo went up to fight Sebastian Lujan as a tossup. It will thankfully make up for my losing streak lately. I put 10 units on it as soon as the line went below 200

[ZXCVBNM]

Of course Im worried about the KO. Manny was practically knocked out by a near nobody Mexican, forget his name, last year at a fight I attended.

WTF? When? And if you're talking about Juan Manuel Marquez that is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from a near nobody.

Common sense dictates Oscar should win this by KO once Manny feels his power. That's just common sense. I'm hoping Manny puts in the performance of his lifetime.

+150 is nowhere near value. I think Manny's Filipino fans are moving the line that way, I don't know. Realistically he should be about +300-350 and that's being generous. Sure Pacman is the p4p best but that was fighting at 130 and 135, not 147.

The one fight I really liked was Banks vs that bum Enzo Mac, too bad Banks pulled out though.

[daggerkobe]

Oscar is 35 and only 3-2 in his last 5 fights.... one win was over Steve Forbes the dude from the reality show, The Contender.

Oscar is a wannabe Don King and wants to book Pac-man's future fights, the last thing he wants to do is hurt his marquee by beating him.

Pac-man will take this in a split decision!!!!!

[JsmooveFTW]

WTF? When? And if you're talking about Juan Manuel Marquez that is faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar from a near nobody.

Common sense dictates Oscar should win this by KO once Manny feels his power. That's just common sense. I'm hoping Manny puts in the performance of his lifetime.

+150 is nowhere near value. I think Manny's Filipino fans are moving the line that way, I don't know. Realistically he should be about +300-350 and that's being generous. Sure Pacman is the p4p best but that was fighting at 130 and 135, not 147.

The one fight I really liked was Banks vs that bum Enzo Mac, too bad Banks pulled out though.

Yeah Macrinelli is a textbook protected euro trash bum. How he got a title shot so quick i dont know. Frank Warren probably payed someone.

About the guy he was talking about that almost beat Pac, I think he means Solis. I remember watching that ppv and Pac got hammered. And Solis is just a tall lanky Mexican that can't box.

[fiveteamer]

Oscar has nothing to prove.

Myabe he has gone soft.

[JsmooveFTW]

Oscar is 35 and only 3-2 in his last 5 fights.... one win was over Steve Forbes the dude from the reality show, The Contender.

Oscar is a wannabe Don King and wants to book Pac-man's future fights, the last thing he wants to do is hurt his marquee by beating him.

Pac-man will take this in a split decision!!!!!

? You actually go by record? Show some logic and research if you don't really know much about boxing. Yes he's a bit washed up but he should and will win this fight easy. Yeah, DLH will lose on purpose and throw his whole legacy out the window to very doubtfully become Pac's promoter in the future. The whole GBP/Arum thing is over. Arum won. After Pac finishes his superfights with DLH and Hatton, he won't have much if any of his prime left. The stacked lightweight division was going to be too much for him anyway, much less after wars with Hatton and DLH.

Yeah he's 3-2 in his last 5. With losses against horrible fighters like Hopkins and Mayweather, he should definitely lose against a Super Featherweight.

[Thor4140]

i will be backing up the truck and it will be on Oscar. I havent seen a solid play like this since people got suckered into betting Hatton over Mayweather. I hear about all this so called speed Pacman has like it is somehow quicker then Mayweathers which is laughable.. Size and strength win this fight. Manny hasn't fought anyone with this type of size. there is no possible way Manny even comes remotely close to knocking Oscar out. Only way Manny wins this is if every close round the judges steal for Manny.

[Tchocky]

I've been watching the line movement. Seems all the money is coming in on Pacquaio. Is every Filipino betting on Manny?

[bmw530i]

3 Filipinas you never mess with Manny Pacquiao, Rex Navarette, Ok the 3rd you can...Asia Carerra she is pretty hot.

[daggerkobe]

? You actually go by record? Show some logic and research if you don't really know much about boxing. Yes he's a bit washed up but he should and will win this fight easy. Yeah, DLH will lose on purpose and throw his whole legacy out the window to very doubtfully become Pac's promoter in the future. The whole GBP/Arum thing is over. Arum won. After Pac finishes his superfights with DLH and Hatton, he won't have much if any of his prime left. The stacked lightweight division was going to be too much for him anyway, much less after wars with Hatton and DLH.

Yeah he's 3-2 in his last 5. With losses against horrible fighters like Hopkins and Mayweather, he should definitely lose against a Super Featherweight.

How is losing to the best pound for pound fighter throwing his legacy out the window?

Stupid noobs.

[Shark79]

I like Pac-Man, but cant see him winning against De La Hoya ... Pacquiao seems faster ... but De La Hoyas jab is deadly.

[juzgotlucky]

I will never missed this match! bigtime! drink beers while watching!!!!

[I.R.B]

Manny is just to under-sized..

[SBR_John]

Good points guys except the part about Filipinos moving the line LOL... There is not enough Filipinos WITH money to even move a $100 handle at a cock fight.

And maybe you guys are putting too much stock in the weight factor and not enough in the age dept we will see. Good points though on DLH he does have a chin and I agree he will not be hurt in this fight unless he slips off his stool.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Oscar has nothing to prove.

Myabe he has gone soft.

[JsmooveFTW]

How is losing to the best pound for pound fighter throwing his legacy out the window?

Stupid noobs.

I donno, maybe ducking Margarito shamefully to go fight a Super Featherweight and then losing to him? Contradicting himself and lying time after time before this fight was made? Arturo Gatti was up there on the P4P charts too for a long long time even after losses. Look what happened when he moved up. It means nothing. It's mythical. I guess you think Calzaghe would last against a washed up Heavyweight that still has plenty enough to KO him, ala Toney/Rahman

If DLH wasn't feeling the shame and blowback of the situation and what's come out of his mouth, he wouldn't have already said this won't be his last fight after all. DLH has as much pride and is as competitive as anyone in boxing, and if you don't believe that you're the newb. So you really believe DLH of all people won't feel his legacy AT LEAST a bit tarnished after a loss to a Super Featherweight?

Remember, Pac went up to Lightweight for one fight and challenged the worst titleholder he could, a guy that's not "pound for pound" even in the top 10 among lightweights (david diaz is horrible). He hasn't even fought a top lightweight yet, and DLH is at least still a top welterweight. The real fight that should be happening right now is Pac/Hatton. You'll see why.

[masr]

Going w/ Delahoya....I think oscar finishes his career w/ a BANG!!

[rjt721]

John, you shouldn't be betting boxing. +150ish with Pac is a horrific bet. There's absolutely no value. As mentioned, Manny's a natural featherweight, having fought above 130 lbs. just once in his career. Oscar's fought as high as 160. This isn't a case of taking the better fighter. That's irrelevant. DLH's far too big for Pac. Moving up to 147 will take away what made Manny so special at lower weight classes - his tremendous lateral quickness and, most of all, his one-punch KO power. He's not carrying his power up to welter. Impossible.

[SBR_John]

Good post. Agreed, we should be seeing Pac - Hatton.

DLH's 6 inchs of reach advanatge does make an ole boy . DLH is also very good defensively. Someone else made the point that Oscar will get aggressive when he feels pac's lack of power. I dont see that. Oscar has to conserve himself could be a long night. Anyway Im not sure he could catch pac if he goes the aggressive route. I really expect a cautious bout mostly in the middle of the ring and for it to go to the scorecards.

[JerseyRob]

I donno, maybe ducking Margarito shamefully to go fight a Super Featherweight and then losing to him? Contradicting himself and lying time after time before this fight was made? Arturo Gatti was up there on the P4P charts too for a long long time even after losses. Look what happened when he moved up. It means nothing. It's mythical. I guess you think Calzaghe would last against a washed up Heavyweight that still has plenty enough to KO him, ala Toney/Rahman

If DLH wasn't feeling the shame and blowback of the situation and what's come out of his mouth, he wouldn't have already said this won't be his last fight after all. DLH has as much pride and is as competitive as anyone in boxing, and if you don't believe that you're the newb. So you really believe DLH of all people won't feel his legacy AT LEAST a bit tarnished after a loss to a Super Featherweight?

Remember, Pac went up to Lightweight for one fight and challenged the worst titleholder he could, a guy that's not "pound for pound" even in the top 10 among lightweights (david diaz is horrible). He hasn't even fought a top lightweight yet, and DLH is at least still a top welterweight. The real fight that should be happening right now is Pac/Hatton. You'll see why.

I totally agree with you that Oscar is in a lose lose situation. If he beats Manny he doesn't get much credit because he was the bigger man and if he loses he looks bad. ANYBODY WHO ACTUALLY FOLLOWS BOXING KNOWS THIS BUT DAGGERKOBE SOUNDS LIKE A CASUAL FAN. Also people who follow boxing realize this is a side show attraction and Oscar will just prove to be too strong. I see and Oscar KO in round 8.

With that said I have a huge beef with one thing you said. ARTURO GATTI TOP POUND FOR POUND? This was never the case or even close to being the case. Roy Jones dominated the 90's, Oscar, Trinidad, Mosely, Pretty Boy Floyd, even guys like Quartey and Vargas were better when they were in their prime all while Gatti fought. Gatti has won Ring Magazine's fight of the year 3 times but has lost to Angel Manfredy and Ivan Robinson. He was an exciting fighter BUT NEVER EVEN CLOSE TO BEING TOP POUND FOR POUND.

[JerseyRob]

Good post. Agreed, we should be seeing Pac - Hatton.

DLH's 6 inchs of reach advanatge does make an ole boy . DLH is also very good defensively. Someone else made the point that Oscar will get aggressive when he feels pac's lack of power. I dont see that. Oscar has to conserve himself could be a long night. Anyway Im not sure he could catch pac if he goes the aggressive route. I really expect a cautious bout mostly in the middle of the ring and for it to go to the scorecards.

In the past Oscar had to conserve himself because he usually didn't get motivated and came in out of shape like the Felix Sturm fight. That won't be the case against Manny because Oscar is in the best shape in a long time. He is already at 147 and will have plenty of energy and just jab the shorter Pac Man to death and eventually follow it up with a left hook and put manny to sleep.

[Matt Rain]

Graham Houston (ESPN.com contributor and all-around sharp boxing guy) posted his analysis on his site today... it's a good read:

http://www.fightwriter.com/?q=node/1992

[JsmooveFTW]

Yeah I didn't mean Gatti as #1 P4P but he was up there at the top of the lists up until Baldomir. Top 10/15 or so. I remember he took a hit and then moved up to fight Eduoard(forgot how he's spelled), took him apart, and there he was back towards the top. One list was Boxrec that's points system had an absolute love affair with him