NBA --> Utah Jazz vs Washington Wizards --> Total Points 195.5

[dontknowhowtobet]

Can anyone manage to cap this one?
Here are some interesting facts:

1) Utah on average is scoring AT LEAST 90+ points, if not 100, just look at their recent matches:



2) Utah has held nine of its last 10 visitors under 100 points (Source: Preview for the game @ NBA.com).

3) Washington scores around the 90 points.

4) The last meeting between these two in November 2012 ended 83-76 to Utah, maybe the 7 point spread is taken from that game. Before that they met at February 2012 and the game ended in huge score of 200+ points but that is quite far in terms of time.

5) This is the 5th and final road trip game for Washington, they have been traveling since the 17th of January and played against 4 teams on the road (i.e. for Washington these were AWAY matches), tonight it's the final road-trip game to Utah and then they have 3 games played at home... last night they travelled to Portland and scored 98 points.

6) The original line in the morning was 197.5 and it went down globally to 195.5, but that doesn't necessarily indicate anything, I've seen it happening lots of time and it could go the other way around (sometimes the oddsmakers lower the line to ensure the teams go pass it and score OVER the line).

Can anyone share his own thoughts?

OVER / UNDER 195.5 ?

What are your opinions here?

[dontknowhowtobet]

Anyone?

[philippe61]

I think over is a good Play both teams have been above there average points per game the last two weeks

[NittanyLionsFan]

I think over is a good Play both teams have been above there average points per game the last two weeks

Lol great reasoning. That'll DEFINIELY make you money long term.

Go eat sand you kinfolk.

[philippe61]

LOL so what's ure reasoning for liking the under Lmao didn't say I was making a play out of it just no one's been responding so I put my input buddy I just can't believe u waste ure time commenting on people's opinion and not stating ure own u penetrating tool box do me a favour keep your comments to ureself mister allstar capper and blow me

[dontknowhowtobet]

Line dropped from 195.5 to 193.5.

Do I smell Vegas wants this game to end around the 191 - 199 somewhere-ish?

Utah has done it when they played against Dallas on the 8th of Jan --> Line was 198.5 and game ended with 194 pts.
Washington has done the same with their last game, 2 days ago, against Portland --> Line was 195.5 and game ended with 193 pts.
Source:

http://scores.covers.com/basketball-scores-matchups.aspx

(Click on the 7th and 21st of January in the calendar to see the match stats along with the total points stats)

It happens quite often these days ... I wouldn't be surprised if this match ends with 194 pts or something like that (102-92 for Utah, approximately) ... line movement from 197.5 in the morning to 193.5 right now only proves that this could end up around these figures I mentioned above ... 191 to 199ish ...

[NittanyLionsFan]

LOL so what's ure reasoning for liking the under Lmao didn't say I was making a play out of it just no one's been responding so I put my input buddy I just can't believe u waste ure time commenting on people's opinion and not stating ure own u penetrating tool box do me a favour keep your comments to ureself mister allstar capper and blow me

Umm I never said I like the under.

Keep donating tho.

[philippe61]

Whatever u say buddy like I said ure gonna comment make a pick otherwise keep ure 2bit bullshit to ureself

[NittanyLionsFan]

Line dropped from 195.5 to 193.5.

Do I smell Vegas wants this game to end around the 191 - 199 somewhere-ish?

Utah has done it when they played against Dallas on the 8th of Jan --> Line was 198.5 and game ended with 194 pts.
Washington has done the same with their last game, 2 days ago, against Portland --> Line was 195.5 and game ended with 193 pts.
Source:

http://scores.covers.com/basketball-scores-matchups.aspx

(Click on the 7th and 21st of January in the calendar to see the match stats along with the total points stats)

It happens quite often these days ... I wouldn't be surprised if this match ends with 194 pts or something like that (102-92 for Utah, approximately) ... line movement from 197.5 in the morning to 193.5 right now only proves that this could end up around these figures I mentioned above ... 191 to 199ish ...

This is one if the stupidest things I've ever read in my life.

And no, that line movement doesn't PROVE that the game "could" end up in that huge interval you've given is. The only thing that proves that is common sense, numbers, and the way a basketball game is scored. Obviously the game "could" end up with 191-199 pts.

And wtf are you trying to prove by that anyways.

That post was so penetrating stupid that it literally hurt me to read it. Feel like I need to take a shower now.

[Artieaa]

It´s not just about the pts they score, totals is about pace an % efficiency among many factors. And even then after running loads of numbers nothing is 100% sure lol!!!, line was 197 yesterday I see personally this game in 190 points top. then again stats may help to cap though last world is on the teams.

GL

[NittanyLionsFan]

At least your username is accurate. Give up the dream though.

[dontknowhowtobet]

And no, that line movement doesn't PROVE that the game "could" end up in that huge interval you've given is.

Well, that's what I see from that.
Fixed & unchanged lines (before the match starts) usually represent matches which could end up 20-30 pts different than the original line.
Moving lines (before the match starts) usually represent a total figure close to the one indicated by Vegas.

I've seen this happening so many times with the Lakers, Houston, Miami and others, line was 201 and game ended 200 points ... or 216.5 and it ended with 219 pts.

I am just guessing that the final score won't be far from the original line like many other NBA games ending with 20-30 point difference, that's all I said.

If you want to disagree - then feel free, that's what the forum is for.

[philippe61]

Okay everyone's intitled to their opinion like I said I'm not even playing over understand in ball but there's no reason for Nittany to talk shit consistently I put down my thought u don't agree. Cool I don't care I don't play over understand anyways so have a good day boys. BOL on all ure bets

[YungCiroq]

This game screams UNDER 196

[dontknowhowtobet]

Okay everyone's intitled to their opinion like I said I'm not even playing over understand in ball but there's no reason for Nittany to talk shit consistently I put down my thought u don't agree. Cool I don't care I don't play over understand anyways so have a good day boys. BOL on all ure bets

I don't like his attitude neither.

Anyway I tried to analyze it from a technical aspect, look at this:

http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/nba/1-23-2013/washington-wizards-utah-jazz-625

They say the game is trending UNDER based on recent results.

However,

I can clearly see Utah is usually scoring around the 100+, and if Washington is not going to play defense like their last game then Utah can definitely make it 100+ ...

Question is how much Washington would score? ....

I see the -7 handicap as a much better bet ... I really don't see how Washington can win this ... they might score 80-90 ... and if Utah makes it 100-110 then playing the line can be risky ... unless if you do live bet, but I doubt if this one would produce big opportunities ...

That's how I managed to cap it m8.
Lots of work has been done here ...

[Teamprofit101]

I believe Utah -7 is the best play....

[phillybadboy]

i'v been waiting for
your free winners