A friend of mine has a system of betting with the pace of the game. Example was today's spurs game. First half total was 84 the line on the game was 194.5 so basically the pace of the game was about 13 points off for the half. So he followed it with a 2nd half wager on the under 96. It was close but none the less won. He has a record of 15-3 for this past month. I'm just looking for an opinion if I should give it a go or if it's just a run of good luck.
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Totals are added by avg amount of points teams score/ 3pts/ ft's etc. I've seen totals off by 20-30 points. Who knows though if it works more often then not.Comment -
Sounds like a horrible strategy, but you should back test it. Find out for yourself before you risk $Comment -
Welcme to you and your friend.
15-3 is impressive, yet a small sample.
Ride it small and see what shakes down.Comment -
Honestly I was just looking for people's opinions or if anyone has tried anything similar. I feel he is just getting lucky on the games he chooses cause from what I can tell he's not betting every game that meets that criteria just a majorityComment -
Yes, I did place UNDER bet (£210) on the Knicks-Nets yesterday because of the history of the Nets games, their last 3 games were:
1) OVER
2) OVER
3) UNDER
4) Game last night
so I figured it would be UNDER ... similar record with the Knicks ... this is usually how I play totals ...Comment -
Take a look at the lines tonight:
Here are Boston's recent matches:
From old to recent it's:
UNDER (193 against Charlotte)
UNDER
OVER
OVER
And take a look at Cleveland's recent matches:
From old to recent it's:
UNDER (206 against the Lakers)
OVER
UNDER
OVER
It seems to me that based on Boston's pattern the next one should be UNDER.
Based on Cleveland's pattern the next one should be UNDER as well !
Therefore I would suggest to bet UNDER 190.5 tonight.Comment -
HOW ABOUT THAT.
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Are you saying you are betting on what looks like direct patterns? Never heard that one before.Take a look at the lines tonight:
Here are Boston's recent matches:
From old to recent it's:
UNDER (193 against Charlotte)
UNDER
OVER
OVER
And take a look at Cleveland's recent matches:
From old to recent it's:
UNDER (206 against the Lakers)
OVER
UNDER
OVER
It seems to me that based on Boston's pattern the next one should be UNDER.
Based on Cleveland's pattern the next one should be UNDER as well !
Therefore I would suggest to bet UNDER 190.5 tonight.Comment -
It works MOST of the time, but you shouldn't apply this method to teams playing like crap (like ORLANDO). The pattern exists because oddsmakers watch these as well as watching how a team is playing and will offer a line that will "even out the score".
If a team were to go OVER 4, maybe 5 times straight, the odds will adjust where the UNDER will pay soon. You may have outlier teams like HOUSTON who goes on an OVER run for 5-6-7 games in a row, but eventually, it will turn (example, last night's total of 194).Comment -
old betting strategy. old criteria said it had to be off by 20. evened out in long runComment -
Check out EaglesPhan 2nd half formula thread in the subforums. Pretty sure he basically uses this same strategy, and has it tracked for a decent number of games.Comment -
i dont like patterns, but formulas can atleast give you somewhat of an edgeComment -
I would guess the Bos/Cle U93 would fit into this "system"
Also the 2H under in Detroit/Orlando, as that game is on pace for a 1H way higher than the set lineComment -
I was thinking that about the celtics game but he said no. If I hear anything I'll postComment -
He said no? What kind of system is this?Comment -
what am I missing here?
the 2h line has already factored in the "pace of the game" and 100 other thingsComment -
This has been tested a ton. No bueno.Comment -
I've been doing 1H totals this entire year (which isn't much but is a larger sample size than 15-3) based off 3 game 1H averages and taking other things into account (injuries, B2B, travel, etc) and on the year I'm at exactly 50% 77-74-73
I cycle through high % and low % days. Generally Fridays are the WORST day where I'm lucky to be over 30%. 2 out of 3 or so 10 or 11 game days end up being a losing day for me.
Here's the link to my spreadsheet
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as stated above too small of a sample size, its not that easy, in the long term he will hit around 50% causing him to lose money.Comment -
Remember reading somewhere that years back, quarters totals were just 50% of the half total and this got exploited because team's had different tendencies for each quarter. Ex - coming out strong in the 3rd, fading in 4th, etcComment -
This reminds me of one system I saw last year that was hitting around 70% over multiple seasons:
Bet Team B live for the 4th quarter if:
1. Team A has outscored Team B all three prior quarters, and
2. Team A was ahead by at least 10 points going into the 4th.
Of course the problem is finding books that offer live bets on all NBA games. Seemed like it had even greater success when team "B" is the home team.Comment -
I've done a little tinkering with NBA 2nd halves as well. In the end, sports are sports and things always change. Lines are made with reasoning, and as well as you may be reading the pace of the game (for me, it was pace as well as the demeanor of the teams and individual players---Cal Lightman style
), the people who are making these lines are doing the same things.
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