That S.P. Pick thread

SportsPedagogy · 01-19-13, 05:59 PM

UFC on FX 7

Play 2: Bisping/Belfort FOTN+380 (1 Unit to win 3.8)
Play 3: Tavares/Nurmagomedov FOTN +400 (1 Unit to win 4)

I think the Tavres fight will be a really good and exciting fight, but the UFC does have a love affair with their main events, and I could see either Bisping or Vitor having a comeback victory, which would probably give them FOTN.

Play 4: Belfort wins ITD +130 (5 Units to win 6.5)
Bisping is getting a lot of love for his constancy and his conditioning, but I like my chances with Belfort in a 25 minute fight. I think he finishes it.
Play 5: C.B. Dollaway +140 (1 Unit to win 1.4)
Just taking a shot here. Sarafian hasn't really fought anybody great. A lot of Brazilian BJJ fighters struggle in their first matches vs American wrestlers. Sarafian could grab the sub, but I think (I honestly have no idea) that Dollaway has trained more against great BJJ guys then Sarafian has trained against great American wrestlers.
Play 6: Gonzaga -105 (5.25 units to win 5)
I am not sold on Ben Rothwells KO over Schaub. Plain and simple. I think will rock him, take him down and submit him.
Play 7: Nunes -140 (7 units to win 5)
I think Nunes has alot of upside. His only losses have been decisions, about even in winning his fights through TKOs and Submissions. Lentz is a tough guy to finish, but I think Nunes takes this one.
Play 8: Barboza -290 (14.5 Units to win 5)
Martins has a good record, but I think Barboza bounces back from his loss to Jamie Varner.
Play 9: Prado -210 (4.2 Units to win 2)
I like Prado. He is a big strong fighter with a good bit of power. I dont think he will ever make a big run at a title, but I think he will win this fight tonight.

SportsPedagogy · 01-20-13, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

UFC on FX 7

Play 2: Bisping/Belfort FOTN+380 (1 Unit to win 3.8) LOSS
Play 3: Tavares/Nurmagomedov FOTN +400 (1 Unit to win 4) LOSS

I think the Tavres fight will be a really good and exciting fight, but the UFC does have a love affair with their main events, and I could see either Bisping or Vitor having a comeback victory, which would probably give them FOTN.

Play 4: Belfort wins ITD +130 (5 Units to win 6.5) WIN
Bisping is getting a lot of love for his constancy and his conditioning, but I like my chances with Belfort in a 25 minute fight. I think he finishes it.
Play 5: C.B. Dollaway +140 (1 Unit to win 1.4) WIN
Just taking a shot here. Sarafian hasn't really fought anybody great. A lot of Brazilian BJJ fighters struggle in their first matches vs American wrestlers. Sarafian could grab the sub, but I think (I honestly have no idea) that Dollaway has trained more against great BJJ guys then Sarafian has trained against great American wrestlers.
Play 6: Gonzaga -105 (5.25 units to win 5) WIN
I am not sold on Ben Rothwells KO over Schaub. Plain and simple. I think will rock him, take him down and submit him.
Play 7: Nunes -140 (7 units to win 5) LOSS
I think Nunes has alot of upside. His only losses have been decisions, about even in winning his fights through TKOs and Submissions. Lentz is a tough guy to finish, but I think Nunes takes this one.
Play 8: Barboza -290 (14.5 Units to win 5) WIN
Martins has a good record, but I think Barboza bounces back from his loss to Jamie Varner.
Play 9: Prado -210 (4.2 Units to win 2) LOSS
I like Prado. He is a big strong fighter with a good bit of power. I dont think he will ever make a big run at a title, but I think he will win this fight tonight.

Total:
4-4 (+4.7)

MMA:
Total: 4-4 (+4.7)
Fights: 4-2 (+6.7)
Awards: 0-2 (-2)

SportsPedagogy · 01-20-13, 01:00 PM

Play 10: 7 Pt Teaser. Ravens +16, Ravens/Pats o44 -120 (3.6 Units to win 3)
Is this the game where the weak and old Ravens team that we have all been talking about, finally shows up ? For the first time, I finally do not think so. Joe Flacco is throwing the ball out of his mind. The defense is giving up points, but thy are making plays when it counts. They have a legit shot to win the whole thing, but first, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is waiting for them. The Patriots seemingly put up points at will. They have so many weapons all over the field that it is hard to stop them all at once. The Ravens shall merely hope to contain them. I think this is going to be a fun game to watch. I think Ravens hang tough and points are scored.

Mikeyanks23 · 01-20-13, 01:14 PM

goodluck sheldon

Aussiefalconfan · 01-20-13, 01:16 PM

You a fan of boxing ?

Mundine vs Geale who do you like?

SportsPedagogy · 01-20-13, 06:09 PM

Originally posted by Aussiefalconfan

You a fan of boxing ?

Mundine vs Geale who do you like?

I haven't watched boxing constantly in years. I couldn't even make a decent guess. Who are you taking ?

SportsPedagogy · 01-26-13, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

NFC Championship Game
Play 1: 49ers -2.5 -168 (16.8 units to win 10) I got this the other day. Probaby a little higher now. I think Russell Wilson was able to give the Falcons defense fits in the 2nd half with his ability to buy time and scramble, I think Kaepernick will be able to confuse them aswell. This could be a close game early, but I think the 49ers will make the key defensive stops and pull it out. WIN

Play 10: 7 Pt Teaser. Ravens +16, Ravens/Pats o44 -120 (3.6 Units to win 3)
Is this the game where the weak and old Ravens team that we have all been talking about, finally shows up ? For the first time, I finally do not think so. Joe Flacco is throwing the ball out of his mind. The defense is giving up points, but thy are making plays when it counts. They have a legit shot to win the whole thing, but first, Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is waiting for them. The Patriots seemingly put up points at will. They have so many weapons all over the field that it is hard to stop them all at once. The Ravens shall merely hope to contain them. I think this is going to be a fun game to watch. I think Ravens hang tough and points are scored. LOSE

Total:
5-5 (+11.1)

MMA:
Total: 4-4 (+4.7)
Fights: 4-2 (+6.7)
Awards: 0-2 (-2)

NFL:
Total: 1-1 (+6.4)
Sides: 1-0 (+10)
Parlays: 0-1 (-3.6)

SportsPedagogy · 01-26-13, 05:24 PM

Play 11 Bulls -1.5 -115 (2.2 Units to win 2): Everybody seems to be really excited about the Wizards, but truth is, they are 3-3 in their last 6! Okay, they are also 6-3 in their last 9, which is good for a team that only has 10 wins. That being said, I like the Bulls because they are big and physical. I am not big on John Wall. I watched him at Kentucky all the time and he drove me nuts. Has to put up way too many shots to get the amount of points he scores. He shoots a career .417 on FG's, I expect that number to be lower tonight and Bulls will dominate the boards.

Play 12 Nets ML +155 (1 Unit to win 1.55): The Rockets are in turmoil. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games, whilst the Nets are 8-2. I havent watched alot of the Nets, but I have watched a lot of the Rockets because they interest me. If somebody does not get hot behind the 3-Pt line, the Rockets will struggle, James Harden is trying to do it all on his own and he is not capable of doing that. He relies to much on trying to get fouled. If the whistles do not blow and the 3's do not drop, long night for the Rockets.

Play 13 Matuushenko +425 (1 unit to win 4.25): Vlad has power and years and years of wrestling experience. I think Bader will try and stand with him, but eventually look for a takedown. Bader maybe younger and more athletic, but Vlad is alot more experienced. I think he defends Baders takedowns and eventually gets a good shot and finishes with a TKO.

Play 14 Wiman +125 (2 units to win 2.5): We have another test of Matt Wimans submission defense. Matt Wiman has never been submitted in his career, not only that, but he fought undeafeated Paul Saas (a man who won 12 out of his 13 fights by submission) and submitted him. It is time to start taking Wiman seriously. I think Wiman ventures to the ground, defends submissions, and batters away at Grant. Wiman by decision.

Play 15 Teixeira -330 (16.5 units to win 5): This is one of those fights where you feel really good about something, but you know it is only a matter of time before one of the -300+ plays blows up in your face. I am willing to risk a bit here for Teixeira. His last loss was 2005. Teix has a good striking and great ground control. I think he uses angles and footwork to keep hitting Rampage before setting up his takedowns. I am not sure if he gets a finish, but I think he will get a solid victory.

Play 16 Johnson/Dodson FOTN +220 (1 unit to win 2.2)
Play 17 Cerrone/Pettis FOTN +200 (1 unit to win 2)

I feel pretty good about this fights. Smaller guys usually make for better FOTN's because they do not seem to have the power to finsh each other, so you they will most likely be longer and at a faster pace. Betting on two didn't work out to well for me last time, but I feel good about one getting it, and picking up a unit.

SportsPedagogy · 01-26-13, 05:55 PM

Added another unit on Wiman since he hit +170 1 unit to win 1.7

SportsPedagogy · 01-27-13, 06:43 PM

Play 18 TOTAL o79½-110 (AFC vrs NFC) -110 (2.2 Units to win 2) People seem to think that the game is in jeopardy if the players don't play hard, but I do not think that will acutally make them play harder on defense. The no Blitz rule will give the QBs alot more time. Alot of young QBs in this game, but I think the Manning brothers will throw some deep bombs and this one will be over 80. I am really just throwing a couple units on the game to make it worth watching.

I will update all results after tonight.

mcduggly · 01-27-13, 06:45 PM

Good luck

SportsPedagogy · 01-27-13, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by mcduggly

Good luck

Thanks. You making a play on the game ?

mcduggly · 01-27-13, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Thanks. You making a play on the game ?

I bet on an NBA all-star game a couple years ago. I believe it was under 275 or some crazy number and I lost, so I have never bet any all-star game since. You never know what you're going to get in these things. Your bet is looking good, though.

Smutbucket · 01-27-13, 11:22 PM

just noticed this thread. got it marked now, gonna be following along. good luck buddy

SportsPedagogy · 01-27-13, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

just noticed this thread. got it marked now, gonna be following along. good luck buddy

Thanks Smut. You capping anything these days ?
Who do you like in the Superbowl? I was all over the 49ers throughout the playoffs, but you can't overlook what the Ravens did to Manning and Brady. I think I may go Ravens.

Smutbucket · 01-28-13, 03:49 AM

ya the only 2 sports I cap are football and baseball....baseball I go strong for first 2 months then I usually stop following so closely/capping.....

ya 49ers all the way, got it for 1 unit so far maybe add another. really love kapernick in this offense, harbaughs run-blocking schemes are amazing, now with a QB like kapernick whos got a laser for an arm, and his size combined with his mobility, combined with the defense they got?!, my moneys gonna be on the 49ers alot these next couple seasons.....

honestly I like ravens offense but their D is nothing that spectacular in my opinion, i think 49ers are better than them on both sides of the ball, denver blew that game and I think pats offense isnt that good without gronk, they need big receivers/good hands to win with that bs short pass offense they got, so I dont give that D that much credit for those games....and I dont think they will be able to slow down this offense at all....best case scenario they hold em to 24ish pts....think SF def will give up 1-2 TD's at most.....

mcduggly · 01-28-13, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Thanks Smut. You capping anything these days ?
Who do you like in the Superbowl? I was all over the 49ers throughout the playoffs, but you can't overlook what the Ravens did to Manning and Brady. I think I may go Ravens.

The Ravens haven't played a team like the 49ers in the postseason. Brady and Manning are pure pocket passers, and guys like Ngata and Suggs thrive there. Plus they haven't seen a defense as physical as the Niners. One of the best defenses I have ever seen play.

Mitchell88 · 01-28-13, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Thanks Smut. You capping anything these days ?
Who do you like in the Superbowl? I was all over the 49ers throughout the playoffs, but you can't overlook what the Ravens did to Manning and Brady. I think I may go Ravens.

good post man, I thinks it is 49ers all day, the Ravens are out of juice and Flacco has never played three consecutive decent games in his career, check it out

SportsPedagogy · 01-28-13, 02:53 PM

I was full speed 49ers.... then the seeds of doubt began to get planted ... You guys are brining me back. The 49ers have made me a good bit this season, I shall go with my first instinicts and go with the 49ers. Let's see if the line drops a bit more. I do not see it crossing 3 though

mcduggly · 01-28-13, 02:59 PM

Hey SP, can you help me out in this thread, please? :

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2152804-basic-bet-tracking-question.html

mcduggly · 01-28-13, 03:00 PM

Actually, nevermind, I figured it out reading your above picks. =)

SportsPedagogy · 01-28-13, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Play 11 Bulls -1.5 -115 (2.2 Units to win 2): Everybody seems to be really excited about the Wizards, but truth is, they are 3-3 in their last 6! Okay, they are also 6-3 in their last 9, which is good for a team that only has 10 wins. That being said, I like the Bulls because they are big and physical. I am not big on John Wall. I watched him at Kentucky all the time and he drove me nuts. Has to put up way too many shots to get the amount of points he scores. He shoots a career .417 on FG's, I expect that number to be lower tonight and Bulls will dominate the boards. LOSE

Play 12 Nets ML +155 (1 Unit to win 1.55): The Rockets are in turmoil. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games, whilst the Nets are 8-2. I havent watched alot of the Nets, but I have watched a lot of the Rockets because they interest me. If somebody does not get hot behind the 3-Pt line, the Rockets will struggle, James Harden is trying to do it all on his own and he is not capable of doing that. He relies to much on trying to get fouled. If the whistles do not blow and the 3's do not drop, long night for the Rockets. LOSE

Play 13 Matuushenko +425 (1 unit to win 4.25): Vlad has power and years and years of wrestling experience. I think Bader will try and stand with him, but eventually look for a takedown. Bader maybe younger and more athletic, but Vlad is alot more experienced. I think he defends Baders takedowns and eventually gets a good shot and finishes with a TKO. LOSE

Play 14 Wiman +125 (2 units to win 2.5): We have another test of Matt Wimans submission defense. Matt Wiman has never been submitted in his career, not only that, but he fought undeafeated Paul Saas (a man who won 12 out of his 13 fights by submission) and submitted him. It is time to start taking Wiman seriously. I think Wiman ventures to the ground, defends submissions, and batters away at Grant. Wiman by decision. LOSE

Play 15 Teixeira -330 (16.5 units to win 5): This is one of those fights where you feel really good about something, but you know it is only a matter of time before one of the -300+ plays blows up in your face. I am willing to risk a bit here for Teixeira. His last loss was 2005. Teix has a good striking and great ground control. I think he uses angles and footwork to keep hitting Rampage before setting up his takedowns. I am not sure if he gets a finish, but I think he will get a solid victory. WIN

Play 16 Johnson/Dodson FOTN +220 (1 unit to win 2.2) WIN
Play 17 Cerrone/Pettis FOTN +200 (1 unit to win 2) LOSE

I feel pretty good about this fights. Smaller guys usually make for better FOTN's because they do not seem to have the power to finsh each other, so you they will most likely be longer and at a faster pace. Betting on two didn't work out to well for me last time, but I feel good about one getting it, and picking up a unit.

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Play 18 TOTAL o79½-110 (AFC vrs NFC) -110 (2.2 Units to win 2) People seem to think that the game is in jeopardy if the players don't play hard, but I do not think that will acutally make them play harder on defense. The no Blitz rule will give the QBs alot more time. Alot of young QBs in this game, but I think the Manning brothers will throw some deep bombs and this one will be over 80. I am really just throwing a couple units on the game to make it worth watching.

WIN

I will update all results after tonight.

Total:
8-10 (+12.1)

MMA:
Total: 6-7 (+6.9)
Fights: 5-4 (+7.7)
Awards: 1-3 (-0.8)

NFL:
Total: 2-1 (+8.4)
Sides: 1-0 (+10)
Parlays: 0-1 (-3.6)
Over/under: 1-0 (+2)

NBA:
Total: 0-2 (-3.2)
Sides: 0-1 (-2.2)
ML: 0-1 (-1)

SportsPedagogy · 01-28-13, 03:17 PM

Play 19 Toronto Raptors +105 (1 unit to win 1.05)
Play 20 Philadelphia 76ers +105 (1 unit to win 1.05)

As are most of my 1 or two unit bets, these are bordem plays . You would think getting such good lines on Memphis or Golden State would be a gift, but it is usually the opposite. If it seems to good to be true, it normally is.

SportsPedagogy · 02-02-13, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by SportsPedagogy

Play 19 Toronto Raptors +105 (1 unit to win 1.05)LOSE
Play 20 Philadelphia 76ers +105 (1 unit to win 1.05) LOSE

Total:
8-12 (+10.1)

MMA:
Total: 6-7 (+6.9)
Fights: 5-4 (+7.7)
Awards: 1-3 (-0.8)

NFL:
Total: 2-1 (+8.4)
Sides: 1-0 (+10)
Parlays: 0-1 (-3.6)
Over/under: 1-0 (+2)

NBA:
Total: 0-4 (-5.2)
Sides: 0-1 (-2.2)
ML: 0-3 (-3)

SportsPedagogy · 02-02-13, 06:31 PM

Play 21 Washington Wizards +12.5 -110 (2.2 units to win 2)I have been horrible in the NBA, but it is bound to turn around, right ?

Play 22 Jose Aldo -170 (5.1 units to win 3)
Play 23 Lil Nog +460 (1 unit to win 4.6)
Nog has good power, he is the better striker and he has solid take down defense. I will take a shot at these odds.
Play 24 Damian Maia +185 (2.5 units to win 4.63) This isnt just one of those underdog plays I am so accustomed to, I really think Maia wins this fight. He has better striking and he i think he is stronger and will dictate where the fight goes.
Play 25 Volkman wins by submission +130 (1.5 units to win 1.95) I do not know much about his opponent, but they both win a good bit of fights on the ground, so i think it will go there and I think Volkman will find a sub.
Play 26 Overeem wins by TKO/KO -210 (10.50 to win 5) I have won enough of this higher juice plays that I can take risk right here and not be too buried if I lose. Overeem has power and Silva has a big head. I see the two connecting.
Play 27 Edgar/Aldo FOTN award winner +155 (3 units to win 4.65)
Play 28 Antonio Nogueira wins KO of the Night +3000 (0.5 units to win 15)

Play 29 3 Team Parlay
Overeem/Silva Fight won't go 3 round distance -675
Fitch/Maia goes 3 round distance -180
Hieron/Woodley goes 3 round distance -195
(2 units to win 3.4)

Forgive me for this ....
Play 30 7 Team Parlay
Alistair Overeem -360
Ronda Rousey -1175
Urijah Faber -350
Brian Stann -220
Georges St-Pierre -450
Daniel Cormier -395
Jon Jones -1100

(5 units to win 16.66)

To recap, If Silva wins by decision, I will be buried

I am going to release my SuperBowl pick and prop bets for the SuperBowl in a bit... maybe tomorrow

SportsPedagogy · 02-03-13, 04:01 PM

Play 31: Ravens +180 (5 units to win 9)
Play 32: Jay-Z does not appear on stage +145 (5 Units to win 7.25)

Smutbucket · 02-07-13, 02:47 AM

nice hit on ravens.....was really hoping kaep would win that one.....

anyways sp, whats your history with betting? sports you cap? which have been your best?