I Figured Out How To Beat The Books

[beermankirk]

5 dimes will not let u cash out if u keep betting 2 sides at the same book

[ZetaPsi808]

I could keep going but you get the point. When you play middles you're basically betting with Vegas's line which we all know our the sharpest lines.

Zeta, don't Fukkn condescend me man. You don't know me, man

nah i thought you found the magic strategy brah

[Mantle7]

5 dimes will not let u cash out if u keep betting 2 sides at the same book

You have no idea what you're talking about. Middling is perfectly ok with any book.

[Mantle7]

nah i thought you found the magic strategy brah

actually I said I don't have it completely figured out yet.

[PerfectGrape]

I thought I read before somewhere books might limit you if your middling or arbing, not sure completely though or 5d specifically.

[wantitall4moi]

Wont work, youre paying way too much vig.

Middling 'CAN' work if you take a bunch of full game leads and get lucky enough to have a half time score that allows you to have both sides. But usually by then youre lead game is either so far ahead or so far behind your middle shot is actually just another individual bet so youre either pressing a winner looking to double up or trying to salvage a loser.

But if youre on a budget and just trying to stay in the game longer it can do that for sure. but only if youre paying -110 or less. If youre laying -120 both ways youre paying about 8.3% in vig. -110 both ways is 'only' 4.5%. The game where you laid -134 and -134 thats 12.7% vig, meaning you have to hit BOTH sides around 36 times out of 100 to make a profit. Not likely. In the one where you laid -123 and -165 you were close to 15% vig there, meaning you would have to win BOTH sides of that bet 38 times out of 100 to make a profit.

My math might be wrong since I did it in my head and also depending on how you play them or what wagers you make each way. As in 89@ -125 and 100@ -165 or multiples there of. The vig percentage wont change but how much you win/lose will.

[TheMoneyShot]

Mantle... it's not worth the vig in the long run.

[VegasInsider]

Crickets..

[thetrinity]

Pretty simple to figure out. If he misses the middle he loses minimal money, if he hits it he wins big, problem is he aint gona hit it near enough, hes not playing for free.

[ebbearsfb1]

guys lets all tail this guy and then we will become thousandaires

Haha more like brokeairies..
Is that even a word?

[Bostongambler]

Called a Polish middle. U just f$cked urself. Plus where do u think u would get scrambled lines like that.

[wantitall4moi]

Pretty simple to figure out. If he misses the middle he loses minimal money, if he hits it he wins big, problem is he aint gona hit it near enough, hes not playing for free.

Its not 'Minimal' money.

If he is laying -135 on sides and on one he laid -165 thats a lot of money.

You cant cheat vig when youre winning a game every time. Because that means your vig is maxed out.

He is going to lose between 10-20% each time he doesnt middle. So if he puts 1500 into these both ways he is going to lose 150 to 300 more often than he will win 800-1200.

[wantitall4moi]

Called a Polish middle. U just f$cked urself. Plus where do u think u would get scrambled lines like that.

not polish since he cant lose both sides

[You mad bro]

Owned .....



attention whore

[Dirty Sanchez]

Zeta and YouMadBro I don't expect you guys to have any idea what Im talking about.

Yeah You's guys....this is only for those of us with Math degrees Oh yeah..almost forgot....Never fukkin heard of ya pal

[RudyRuetigger]

is this thread serious?

i cannot tell

[PerfectGrape]

Whats so unserious about it? With how close 2h lines seems, can it be profitable to buy points on each side and shoot for a middle? So many people on this forum play 4-5 team parlays, that has to be less profitable than this.

[Bluehorseshoe]

is this thread serious?

i cannot tell

[TheLock]

guys lets all tail this guy and then we will become thousandaires

I LOL'd

[ebbearsfb1]

Doesn't seem worth it at all..

Feel like you need a bigger range to middle plays.

[BigDeem5]

Mantle getting buried again, nothing new

Month of trolling me

Now he gets the utter burial

[daimoshokage]

stupid op!

[You mad bro]

lol at this guy thinking he figured vegas out .. smh

[ebbearsfb1]

best way to middle
take the dog or favorite before the game and hope they get out to a lead, if your a middle better.


i personally like taking the dog, hope they get a big enough lead, and then middle if necessary

[romecloneout]

nope

[wantitall4moi]

best way to middle
take the dog or favorite before the game and hope they get out to a lead, if your a middle better.


i personally like taking the dog, hope they get a big enough lead, and then middle if necessary

thats what I said but if you have a team +5 for the whole game with a 10 point lead at half time (thats a 15 point lead) , and they put the favorite up at -11 halftime (meaning the fav only has to win SU now), that gives you a 3 point middle, and a couple sides. But is that bet worth taking if you have a 15 point lead? Sure you MIGHT hit both but you have a 15 point lead. If you do take -11 on the fav then youre basically playing insurance, in case your dog shits the bed and cant cover, unlikely you get a middle there, not impossible but not that likely. If your team wins SU by 3 then you just 'lost' money because you made a bet you 'didnt' have to make.

Thats why its risk aversion and not necessarily a profit making approach. If you cant pick winners anyway then t is probably a 'better' approach, but that is another catch 22 because for it to work you have to have good enough leads to take advantage of it in the first place.

[spankie]

[Donkeys2012]

Mantle getting buried again, nothing new

Month of trolling me

Now he gets the utter burial

Mantle is a fukking moron. I buried him for a couple months then it got old.

[dynamite140]

[Mantle7]

Y

Whats so unserious about it? With how close 2h lines seems, can it be profitable to buy points on each side and shoot for a middle? So many people on this forum play 4-5 team parlays, that has to be less profitable than this.

It's so true. All the guys laughing probaby don't even know what a middle is.

Stupid fukks think I would be betting THOUSANDs of dollars if these bets didn't hit. You're using Vegas's lines which are the sharpest in the book. Think about it.. every time youve been broke off by a single basket, there I am taking both sides down.

For the guys talking about not being able to get scrambled lines like that just log onto Heritage before the moneyline is released on some of the games. You can buy and sell plenty of points which basically proves my point.

Honestly, I came on here to try and figure this shit out. Maybe I should have named the thread something out.

BigDeem, your a self admitted $5 bettor. The only thing you're gonna bury is your Vietnamese whore mother when I'm done with her.

[coitus_maximus]

OMG!!! Mantle u cannot be serious??? You may win like one out a hundred and pay lots of vig. Have fun with that.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

A 2-3 point middle range isnt worth the juice your paying selling these points. As stated above you need to middle a 2H bet 20% of the time to break even. Now go look at every 2H play from the last 5 years. Did 20% middle?

[Mantle7]

OMG!!! Mantle u cannot be serious??? You may win like one out a hundred and pay lots of vig. Have fun with that.

Nah, they hit man. If you understand the concept then just try it on a couple games you think might be close games. The only thing you're losing is the juice on ONE game. It's impossible to lose both sides. I posted that one I hit the other night. Check the dates on the tickets. Those are all just this month. I don't play every game or every night

[Mantle7]

A 2-3 point middle range isnt worth the juice your paying selling these points. As stated above you need to middle a 2H bet 20% of the time to break even. Now go look at every 2H play from the last 5 years. Did 20% middle?

I don't try to middle every age, though. I take favorites that are way down at half, etc.. I have a guideline I stick to.

[Bostongambler]

MICKY cut it out please. You just wrote games you think are going to be close.

You are so opening yourself up to a polish middle