Florida @ Arizona sat night: set the line

rm18 · 12-13-12, 08:17 PM

fukk no Zona will be favored, but they are the bet

Louisvillekid1 · 12-13-12, 08:19 PM

I'm guessing it will be arz -1 but I'm also trying to be optimistic ...

Vegas39 · 12-13-12, 08:21 PM

Florida -2.5 or 3 is my guess

paranoyd androyd · 12-13-12, 08:24 PM

looking fwd to this one, need to see what the gators can do outside of their state before crowning them

ChalkyDog · 12-13-12, 08:33 PM

Zona will be getting points, or at least they should be. Florida is a monster, and most the public believes it too.

I'll have more on it later for sure, on my phone right now.

hkarmy_kenny · 12-13-12, 08:34 PM

Hey LKid -

I'm thinking spread is -1.5 Florida books keep it low.

For what its worth, my model has Arizona winning by 2 at home.

Louisvillekid1 · 12-13-12, 08:42 PM

I'm really high on both this year, Florida more...

however, this will be biggest game in Arizona in a long time and have a strong lean towards them

also I'm always curios to hear about you're model!

Keep up the great work

hkarmy_kenny · 12-13-12, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by Louisvillekid1

I'm really high on both this year, Florida more...

however, this will be biggest game in Arizona in a long time and have a strong lean towards them

also I'm always curios to hear about you're model!

Keep up the great work

You have skype? Ill send you over the formulas I'm using and would love to get your input

CollegeOverUnder · 12-13-12, 08:46 PM

hmmmmmm Florida -2.5? Its at Arizona right?

Louisvillekid1 · 12-13-12, 08:46 PM

Yes I have Skype ,

Louisvillekid1 · 12-13-12, 08:47 PM

Just know going in though, I'm an X n O capper and use my eyes along with line movement when capping...

hkarmy_kenny · 12-13-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by CollegeOverUnder

hmmmmmm Florida -2.5? Its at Arizona right?

Yeah..I'm only giving Florida the benefit here because I think they've played much better than Arizona....however Arizona is better offensively on paper

Grits n' Gravy · 12-13-12, 09:20 PM

If 2 ranked teams are playing and lower ranked team is a home dog, take the points. Does pretty well long term.

gators0708 · 12-13-12, 09:29 PM

Even IMO.. Should be a great test for the gators can't wait!

CollegeOverUnder · 12-13-12, 09:34 PM

I think the Gators win this game all I no is this game will be nuts lmao. I havnt capped it but I honestly think the Gators should be -2.5

HOT WINGS · 12-13-12, 09:46 PM

Zona-3

Brock Landers · 12-13-12, 09:50 PM

florida -4

HOT WINGS · 12-13-12, 10:00 PM

Ill be shocked if Florida opens as a fav in this game. Pick em maybe. If gamewas at Florida you think they would be -9/10?

Ekcol · 12-13-12, 11:53 PM

Florida -2

ChalkyDog · 12-14-12, 12:03 AM

If this was at Florida it would easily be Florida -5/-6... so it translates that Florida -2 at Arizona.

McKale will be nuts, but it will have no student sections, as they are away and their seats sold to the general public. That takes away a bit, but believe me when I say that Tucson knows how to get up for games like this.

Florida is the better team, but this is their first true road game - Arizona has just come off two matchup nightmares, and might be in for a third in a row as Sean's teams have had issue against a matchup 2-3 zone, especially considering they run a strong trapping matchup press.

Anyway, Ill have more on the game later, still on my phone. If Florida is getting points at anytime, that would be a play with "value".

That said, a terrible - and I mean shit ass terrible, worst team at Arizona in over two decades, took florida to 2OT @Florida last year., and I think that Florida team last year was more talented - although this team is better as a unit and should go further. I had Florida making a deep run in my bracket last year.

ChalkyDog · 12-14-12, 12:41 AM

Also, I would love to hear some florida perspective, and more than just some rah rah homer response.

CollegeOverUnder · 12-14-12, 01:04 AM

if this game was at Florida it would be Florida -7.5 to -8.5

casinobones · 12-14-12, 01:38 AM

Fla - 2 /146

chinoloco212 · 12-14-12, 01:42 AM

I can't wait for this, revenge game from last year where it went to OT, I think Arizona poses match up problems for Florida..

Arizona wins this game by 5. Book it

isotopes · 12-14-12, 12:15 PM

Gators will win this one and cover, arizona is in a weeker conference and they were really unimpressive in early play. They almost lost to a very week Clemson squad. Gators have blown away much better competition, FSU at FSU is a harder game than Clemson at Clemson. However, this is a different matchup and I expect everyone to be fired up.

Gators still cover here all the way to -4. However, I hope it opens Zona -1.5

isotopes · 12-14-12, 03:01 PM

Gators -3.5 posted on Bookmaker, please please please let Arizona be an RAS pick tomorrow, good spot for the Gators here

ChalkyDog · 12-15-12, 01:46 AM

Sorry about the delay.

To start off with the point, however your cap this game - play the ML. Whoever you think the winner is - play the ML, that simple.

For people who aren't too sure on the outcome of the game, bet live if you can - you will know who is going to win this game in the first 3 to 5 minutes. To use a cliche, if the cats are hitting their shots, more specifically hitting their shots from 3 - they win this game, and win it going away.

My opinion:

Cats have been absolute garbage the last two games, I personally have no idea what that means - I have spent considerable amount thinking about it. Granted, the last two games have been matchup issues, but that is the whole point in this game. On paper, and everything I know about the cats, know that the sysmtem the Gators run, is a 100% matchup nightmare.

Florida runs a tough matchup full court press, that is very good at making people stop their dribble. Arizona is notoriously bad at the press break, and have been for all of the Sean's tenure - and as L'kid can attest to - even back before than. Florida runs their press as effectively as anything I have seen Louisville has done. On top of that, they run a quasi matchup 2-3 zone - which even more than the Press, has been the bane of Sean Millers existent since well before he got here. (Zone generally). Wont say it is as good as 'Cuses because its not, and it is run differently.

Point being, the only ways to break a zone are 1) Shoot over it 2) Drive at it and Get inside. Zona is very good at shooting from outside, and are the best I think they have ever been on the inside. BUT, they are very young down low and they just have to do it, which is the main question.

In my absolute 100% opinion, I think it goes down to the wire respectively, and homecourt carries Zona. Been there for a few big games in my time, and the recent whiteout, I damn near blacked out due to noise. It's the truth, and if McKale has a reason to be in it, they're going to bring it. View this as a homer pick, because it is - if nothing more than the fact that I know a stupid amount about Arizona.

In reality, if Arizona doesn't hit their 3's early and often, they're going to get blown out. Our ball handlers are all Seniors, and one super skilled sophomore (who makes dumb ass decisions).

Bet this game live, and if you must make a play pick who is gonna win and play the ML.

I'll post a 2nd half play too. (most likely will have one).

This has been circled on the calender since last season, and has been consciously the biggest game of the season since UCLA started off to a wild THUD.

SteelRain · 12-15-12, 01:49 AM

gators -15

fuking arizona shouldnt even be ranked, team is garbage

No coincidences · 12-15-12, 01:52 AM

I like Arizona personally in this spot -- even though Florida is FF material.

Arizona is "garbage"? LOL.

ChalkyDog · 12-15-12, 02:18 AM

Also, the total is weird, I think both teams score a lot this game. Two of the high tempo teams playing. Both average more than the total being hung, and not by a little bit.

zoo youk · 12-15-12, 09:51 AM

Florida is so tough on the defense side of the ball is just ridiculous. the practically force you into bad shots every time down the floor. they rank i believe 2nd in country in scoring defense, 8th in FG % and 25th in rebounding, so #1 you just don't get any easy looks against them like I said, and number two, you don't get ANY second chance points. you virtually have to be absolutely perfect on the offensive end to even have a chance to be in the game with them as they have been destroying teams by 25+

i don't even think they would be rattled by this being their first true road game. such a veteran squad that is already battle tested from last years run and are selling out big time for Donovan. Very efficient on the offensive end, inside and out killer combo...which leads shooting 47% per game with double double machine Patrick Young in the middle and Erik Murphy 55% FG than you have Kenny Boynton on the outside and Rossario who just straight up sharp shooters. I honestly believe this is the best team in the nation.

Filmoz · 12-15-12, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by ChalkyDog

Also, the total is weird, I think both teams score a lot this game. Two of the high tempo teams playing. Both average more than the total being hung, and not by a little bit.

Sup Chalky, fellow Cat. How you been? I forgot if we've ever discussed this, but do you still live in Tuc? And what year did you graduate? I'm really looking forward to tonight's game (and tbh couldn't really give two fks about the New Mexico Bowl, I didn't even realize it was today until this morning lol).

I think the total is low because both teams are well-coached and have had at least a week off each, meaning lot of time to work on a game plan, which means focus on defense, especially by the Cats. No doubt that Sean Miller has hammered into these guys that this is going to be the quickest and most explosive team they've played, and probably will play, all season, and to focus on transition D and matching up well.

And you've already talked about it, and you know it as well as I do: McKale Center is a huge factor when it wants to be, and it wants to be tonight. Also, lets not forget that Arizona took Florida into OT last season at Florida, when Florida had a good team including most players on its current roster, and Arizona really didn't. They played a really tough game based solely on tenacity and Miller's coaching. That loss ended up being very disheartening and setting the tone of underachievement for the rest of the season. Now, this year, Miller finally has the weapons he has needed, and its at home with the revenge factor.

Filmoz · 12-15-12, 10:07 AM

Originally posted by SteelRain

gators -15

fuking arizona shouldnt even be ranked, team is garbage

Lol, hyperbole much? Did a UA student steal your girlfriend?

GoonSquad · 12-15-12, 10:09 AM

^ I agree with Chalkydog and Zooyouk. Arizona definitely has a solid team. However sometimes they look like they just don't know what they're doing. Their early games against LBSU and Texas Tech showed their dominance becuase, yes, they hit their 3 point shots. However they were exposed in their last 2 games against Southern Miss and Clemson.

Southern Miss was undersized in almost every position and still forced Zona to miss a lot of shots. Clemson also played a stingy defense and hung with arizona.

I think one of the major difference makers, other than the 3 point battle, will be the intensity of the big guys down low. Patric Young is the meanest, nastiest, and probably most swoll big man in the entire country. Dude is a straight beast. Many of the Arizona big men are great down low, but they lack that intensity.

All said, I'm going with Florida in this one