Patriots -5 over Texans

[Pivotpoint]

Gronk out.

Liking the Pats big here.

I'm seeing Pats - 3 -118

Wondering why they are not showing a moneyline yet on this game? Guessing Pats would be in the area of -200 to - 220?

I feel fairly safe laying the 3, but the stat below suggests I play it safe and just take them on the moneyline. It's early and I'm just beginning to look at the card. Received a nice chunk of free play and usually like to do a two team moneyline parlay to turn those credits into cash.

Brady is money in these type of games. I could easily see them winning by 10, late, and Texans hand me a push with a meaningless late TD.

* Pats are 20-0 straight up in the second half of the season since 2010

[Slimpickens]

Line opens at Pats -5 now its Pats -3 with high juice. Very telling.

[frostno98]

The Texans needs this win just as much as the Patriots. If the Texans loses, they might even lose a 1st round bye. They got Indy twice, which I see them splitting. The Texans will also be playing Minnesota at home who will be fighting for their playoff lives.

[Slimpickens]

I really dont think motivation will play a factor in this game.

[tripled83]

Snow game pats when by a td, no snow I take the points but think pats win a close one.

[Pivotpoint]

I don't live that far away from Foxborough.

I wouldn't be counting on snow. Daytime temps on Monday are projected with a high of 50 and low of 39 at night. Chance of precipitation 40%

Now the weather can change over the course of the week, but unlikely.

[Big Bear]

Edelmann done for the season...

Damn'!!

I guess this week we will see a heavy dose of Danny Woodhead

[Mr Handicapable]

Jonathan Joseph should be back. I think Houston has a pretty good shot here. Who knows how much havoc JJ Watt could dish out if he ever learns to tip the ball and try to setup a pick rather than spike it like a volleyball player. The guy is a monster. If Houston can't get it done....then maybe SF on a short week for the Pats. Denver needs to run the table and have the Pats drop one.

[k13]

Line opens at Pats -5 now its Pats -3 with high juice. Very telling.

Except it opened -4 and went to -5 before going down...

[Slimpickens]

Except it opened -4 and went to -5 before going down...

Went to 5 for what an hour?

[bobbyk1133]

Except it opened -4 and went to -5 before going down...

It was -5 at Cantor last week and CRIS opened it at -4.5 on Sunday. Not sure what service you're following, but it's not very good.

Opened -4 and got pounded.

-3...lol

Books are not a charity case.

You might want to double-check this.

There was obvious value on the Texans. People overhype the Patriots, as usual.

[SportsInteLect]

Houston is very OVERRATED!

I have no idea why the line is this low.

The Texans have Wade Phillips, Bradie James, and Allan Ball on the defense.

The Texans have beaten only one team with a winning record and that was the Broncos. When Peyton was just starting out and getting used to his teammates and system.

Other than that, the rest of the teams they have beaten have been garbage. It’s prime time and B&B will make a statement, as always. The phins are a division opponent and always play them tough.

The Texans beat the Jets 23-17, lost to the Pack in their first prime time stage 24-42, beat Jacksonville, and the Lions in overtime.

[Slimpickens]

Houston is very OVERRATED!

I have no idea why the line is this low.

The Texans have Wade Phillips, Bradie James, and Allan Ball on the defense.

The Texans have beaten only one team with a winning record and that was the Broncos. When Peyton was just starting out and getting used to his teammates and system.

Other than that, the rest of the teams they have beaten have been garbage. It’s prime time and B&B will make a statement, as always. The phins are a division opponent and always play them tough.

The Texans beat the Jets 23-17, lost to the Pack in their first prime time stage 24-42, beat Jacksonville, and the Lions in overtime.

I dont disagree but you can say many of the same things about the Patriots. No one has had an easier schedule than the Pats the past 2 months.

[Big Bear]

Regardless of how easy the Patriots schedule is...

Do you really doubt them at home on a monday night game in a must win situation in December???

[bobbyk1133]

Regardless of how easy the Patriots schedule is...

Do you really doubt them at home on a monday night game in a must win situation in December???

Teams lose "must win" situations all the time. They also lose "when they're angry" and win games that are supposed to be a "let down" spot. There's no stats to back up any of these myths.

Sooner bettors stop making this such a big criteria in their capping, the better.

[Slimpickens]

Regardless of how easy the Patriots schedule is...

Do you really doubt them at home on a monday night game in a must win situation in December???

Yes, yes I do. I especially doubt there defense.

[rocky16]

I dont disagree but you can say many of the same things about the Patriots. No one has had an easier schedule than the Pats the past 2 months.

I've heard you spew this nonsense somewhere else too. Last two months encompasses the last 8 games. Pats are 7-1 and their opponents winning pct is .510 in those 8 games. They've also outscored their opponents by an average of 37-21. So are you sure no one has had an easier schedule? I know those tiny little things called facts get in the way don't they?

[k13]

It was -5 at Cantor last week and CRIS opened it at -4.5 on Sunday. Not sure what service you're following, but it's not very good.



You might want to double-check this.

There was obvious value on the Texans. People overhype the Patriots, as usual.

Pinnacle opened -4. So not much difference where it is now, more to do with injuries than anything. Only matter if it goes under 3.

No value in losers....Pats win this game 7 out of 10 times.
Total might have more value than the side due to the weather.

[Big Bear]

Well you guys obviously dont think as highly of the Patriots as i do.

And i am a bit less confident in them with Gronk and Edelman out.

However i think they win in a blowout here. This is not the type of game they take lightly.

And I will say this too, if i am wrong and the Patriots dont win this game then I dont think they win the super bowl.

This is a must win if they want homefield advantage.

[bobbyk1133]

Pinnacle opened -4. So not much difference where it is now, more to do with injuries than anything. Only matter if it goes under 3.

No value in losers....Pats win this game 7 out of 10 times.
Total might have more value than the side due to the weather.

huh. What injuries? And what do you mean "only matters if it goes under 3"? A move from -4.5/-4 and onto -3 is a huge move. Books put out a soft line. No other way to spin it.

[rocky16]

Well you guys obviously dont think as highly of the Patriots as i do.

And i am a bit less confident in them with Gronk and Edelman out.

However i think they win in a blowout here. This is not the type of game they take lightly.

And I will say this too, if i am wrong and the Patriots dont win this game then I dont think they win the super bowl.

This is a must win if they want homefield advantage.

I don't think they win in a blowout but I expect a win of 10+ for the Pats. They simply don't lose home games in December. Brady still has Welker, Hernandez, and Llloyd to throw to, and their running game is one of the best in the NFL. They will probably put up 31-34 points here, and defensively they have improved every week similar to last season. I think this ends up being like a 34-23 type of win for the Pats.

[Slimpickens]

I've heard you spew this nonsense somewhere else too. Last two months encompasses the last 8 games. Pats are 7-1 and their opponents winning pct is .510 in those 8 games. They've also outscored their opponents by an average of 37-21. So are you sure no one has had an easier schedule? I know those tiny little things called facts get in the way don't they?

The Pats are all dressed up with impressive blowouts against teams that they should be blowing out. The Pats may win this game as I dont care for the Texans either but, the Pats have had 2 tough road games this season vs the Ravens and Seattle. They lost both games. They beat Denver by 10 2 months ago when Denver was finding there indentity and if not for a key turnover that game may have ended much differently. Those are the only above average teams they have played all year. If I hear one more person say that beating the Colts is a "BIG" win Im gonna go crazy.

The Texans on the other hand have road victories over Denver, Chicago and Detroit. As well as home blowout win over the Ravens.

Again Im not saying I love the Texans in this game I just am not a believer in the over hyped Pats.

[k13]

huh. What injuries? And what do you mean "only matters if it goes under 3"? A move from -4.5/-4 and onto -3 is a huge move. Books put out a soft line. No other way to spin it.

12/02	7:58pm			NWE-4 -108	HOU+4 +100
12/02	8:00pm			NWE-4.5 -115	HOU+4.5 +106
12/02	8:01pm			NWE-4.5 -115	HOU+4.5 +106	52.5 -105	52.5 -105
12/02	8:08pm			NWE-5 -110	HOU+5 +102	52.5 -105	52.5 -105
12/02	8:10pm			NWE-5 -108	HOU+5 +100	52.5 -105	52.5 -105
12/02	8:24pm			NWE-5 -108	HOU+5 +100	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/02	9:13pm			NWE-5 -105	HOU+5 -103	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/02	9:15pm			NWE-5 -102	HOU+5 -106	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/02	9:46pm			NWE-4.5 -102	HOU+4.5 -106	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/02	9:47pm			NWE-4.5 -101	HOU+4.5 -107	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/02	11:50pm			NWE-4.5 +102	HOU+4.5 -110	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/03	12:54pm			NWE-4 -103	HOU+4 -105	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/03	5:11pm			NWE-4 -107	HOU+4 -101	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	11:52am			NWE-4 -101	HOU+4 -107	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	11:53am			NWE-4 +104	HOU+4 -113	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	11:55am			NWE-3.5 +100	HOU+3.5 -108	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	11:56am			NWE-3.5 -102	HOU+3.5 -106	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	12:31pm			NWE-3.5 -101	HOU+3.5 -107	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/04	6:47pm			NWE-3.5 +108	HOU+3.5 -117	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/05	8:12am	NWE-175	HOU+158	NWE-3.5 +108	HOU+3.5 -117	52.0 -101	52.0 -109
12/05	11:21am	NWE-174	HOU+157	NWE-3.5 +109	HOU+3.5 -118	52.0 -101	52.0 -109

So some squares bet up a soft line up to -5 (-110) ?

Johnathan Joseph probably playing is worth one point. The value is on the Pats if you can get -3.

If you think Houston is better, why would you not just play the ML anyway?

[rocky16]

The Pats are all dressed up with impressive blowouts against teams that they should be blowing out. The Pats may win this game as I dont care for the Texans either but, the Pats have had 2 tough road games this season vs the Ravens and Seattle. They lost both games. They beat Denver by 10 2 months ago when Denver was finding there indentity and if not for a key turnover that game may have ended much differently. Those are the only above average teams they have played all year. If I hear one more person say that beating the Colts is a "BIG" win Im gonna go crazy.

The Texans on the other hand have road victories over Denver, Chicago and Detroit. As well as home blowout win over the Ravens.

Again Im not saying I love the Texans in this game I just am not a believer in the over hyped Pats.

Tom Brady is 36-2 in his last 38 at home just an FYI.

On this season, I don't really care what these teams did in weeks 1-6. Its what they've done since. Pats are peaking, while the Texans seemed to have flattened out. I seem to remember people saying the same things about NE last season. "Defense isn't any good, overhyped, etc," but they ended up in the SB and almost won.

[Slimpickens]

Tom Brady is 36-2 in his last 38 at home just an FYI.

On this season, I don't really care what these teams did in weeks 1-6. Its what they've done since. Pats are peaking, while the Texans seemed to have flattened out. I seem to remember people saying the same things about NE last season. "Defense isn't any good, overhyped, etc," but they ended up in the SB and almost won.

You could be right, but Im gonna take the prove it to me approach. I dont really care about week 1-6 either but what have the Pats done since? I have no idea really based on who they have played. Also last year the top AFC teams such as the Ravens who probably should have won last years afc title game werent as good as the teams they will have to beat this year in the post season. Most notably Denver.

[rocky16]

You could be right, but Im gonna take the prove it to me approach. I dont really care about week 1-6 either but what have the Pats done since? I have no idea really based on who they have played. Also last year the top AFC teams such as the Ravens who probably should have won last years afc title game werent as good as the teams they will have to beat this year in the post season. Most notably Denver.

Well Monday night will go a long way in determining where NE stands.

[bobbyk1133]

So some squares bet up a soft line up to -5 (-110) ?

Johnathan Joseph probably playing is worth one point. The value is on the Pats if you can get -3.

If you think Houston is better, why would you not just play the ML anyway?

Of course squares didn't bet anything. Early line movement is important I agree, but it's not everything. Keep in mind there are low limits on Sunday lines. PS - it could have been sharps anticipating line movement and simply taking a position. Sunday lines are a shark tank and not always indicative of where the line is going.

What's far more important is where the line goes during the week and the close. And Joseph's status never changed at any point since last week. He was expected to play vs New England all along.

I don't agree there is value on NE -3. That's what the true line should be. If you like them though, no harm in taking a position and betting that number though.

And I only think there is more value on a ML if the spread is under +3. In a coin flip game between two contenders, I'll take +4.5/+4 every time, regardless of the outcome.

[greenhippo]

Houston is very OVERRATED!

I have no idea why the line is this low.

The Texans have Wade Phillips, Bradie James, and Allan Ball on the defense.

The Texans have beaten only one team with a winning record and that was the Broncos. When Peyton was just starting out and getting used to his teammates and system.

Other than that, the rest of the teams they have beaten have been garbage. It’s prime time and B&B will make a statement, as always. The phins are a division opponent and always play them tough.

The Texans beat the Jets 23-17, lost to the Pack in their first prime time stage 24-42, beat Jacksonville, and the Lions in overtime.

Have the Texans not played the Bears? Have the Texans not played the Ravens? How can SBR allow someone on here who not only embarrasses themself, but their mistake of a mother as well as SBR itself? Get this challenged fukk off the the site.

[rocky16]

Have the Texans not played the Bears? Have the Texans not played the Ravens? How can SBR allow someone on here who not only embarrasses themself, but their mistake of a mother as well as SBR itself? Get this challenged fukk off the the site.

Bears and Ravens are overrated.

[Slimpickens]

Bears and Ravens are overrated.

So are the Patriots.

[Big Bear]

The Bears have a weak offensive line that the Texans were able to exploit.

The Patriots offensive line is very good. If they are able to give Brady time look out.

[rocky16]

So are the Patriots.

You will say Houston was overrated after NE beats them.

[Big Bear]

I got Patriots -5 at +105

Should I go all in now on the ML?

[rocky16]

I got Patriots -5 at +105

Should I go all in now on the ML?

I don't think the $line gets any better than what it is now.

[Big Bear]

You are probably right i just feel like a dumbass for the line i got.

I thought the line would be going closer to 7.

Last i looked though 66% of bets coming in on the Texans.