+EV

[AdamStock1983]

Perhaps someone can help me out with this. If +EV is a positive expectation bet wouldn't every bet you make be +EV. I don't know any who bets with the intention of losing.

Everyone throws around this term but what does it really mean?

[ChalkyDog]

Whether you believe something to be +EV, does not make it so.

1+1 does not equal 3 no matter how much you want it to be, and believe it to be. +EV is simple math made very complex.

-540 is not +EV no matter its result. Also, +EV can't be taken in isolation and inside a vacuum.

[Shaudius]

There's no such thing as a true +EV play in sports betting. People just use the term for situations where they think the line is priced low for what they think the outcome should be, as in they're getting value for their play.

It, on the other hand, has real meaning in poker where if you know a range of hands your opponent is holding, and you obviously know what you're holding then making a certain play is positive expected value despite not always paying off. An example of this would be AA pre-flop. If you hold AA preflop you are +EV against every other hand your opponent has. This doesn't mean you'll win every time obviously but if you get all your chips in the middle over time you will always come out a winner with AA over time(assuming a fair deck).

[tto827]

Whether you believe something to be +EV, does not make it so.

1+1 does not equal 3 no matter how much you want it to be, and believe it to be. +EV is simple math made very complex.

-540 is not +EV no matter its result. Also, +EV can't be taken in isolation and inside a vacuum.

-540 can be plus +EV, if that team would win 90% of the time or more in that given situation.

Your point is accurate OP everyone thinks every bet they make is +EV. It really is a theoretical term for 95% of the people here, the exception being those that are proven to accurately cap and find slight advantages in certain lines.

[JayLA]

You ever tell a friend some advice? Something you swear so righteous that you think there's no opposing argument? That's +EV.

How is it accomplished in sports betting? LOL I still haven't figured that out.

In poker, +EV is kind of simpler.
What cards you have compared to what cards they have. What's your expected value? There are only 52 cards in a deck. How many cards benefit you? How much is at stake......these questions lead to a very simpler number.

Where in sports betting you're basically predicting the future. You can plan a pretty picnic, but you can't predict the weather.

Some mothaphuckas do it, though.

[d2bets]

Perhaps someone can help me out with this. If +EV is a positive expectation bet wouldn't every bet you make be +EV. I don't know any who bets with the intention of losing.

Everyone throws around this term but what does it really mean?

+EV isn't determined by INTENT. It's determined by math and probabilities.

[rfr3sh]

Google expected value

[ChalkyDog]

-540 can be plus +EV, if that team would win 90% of the time or more in that given situation.

Your point is accurate OP everyone thinks every bet they make is +EV. It really is a theoretical term for 95% of the people here, the exception being those that are proven to accurately cap and find slight advantages in certain lines.

See, maybe my perception is off.

Playing -540 over the long haul is certainly -EV. Winning at a 90% clip, even on such heavy favorites is not really attainable. If it was, 5Dimes would be broke due to their open parlays.

[trytrytry]

There's no such thing as a true +EV play in sports betting. People just use the term for situations where they think the line is priced low for what they think the outcome should be, as in they're getting value for their play.

It, on the other hand, has real meaning in poker where if you know a range of hands your opponent is holding, and you obviously know what you're holding then making a certain play is positive expected value despite not always paying off. An example of this would be AA pre-flop. If you hold AA preflop you are +EV against every other hand your opponent has. This doesn't mean you'll win every time obviously but if you get all your chips in the middle over time you will always come out a winner with AA over time(assuming a fair deck).

False...

[JohnGalt2341]

There's no such thing as a true +EV play in sports betting.

This is COMPLETELY false as trytrytry said. ANYTIME you can find a scalp situation one side is ALWAYS +EV. It's mathematically impossible for it not to be. Example... Alan Belcher is fighting Yushin Okami on December 29th. At SBG Global Alan Belcher is +155. At SportBet Yushin Okami is -124. There is a 100% chance that one of these bets is +EV. If they fought an infinite number of times and Alan Belcher won approximately 39.22% of those times you would break even if you placed your bet at SBG Global. If Okami won 55.36% of those times you would break even if you placed your bet at Sportbet. 55.36% + 39.22%=94.58%. Because of the fact that it equals less than 100% guarantees that one side is +EV. Figuring out what side is +EV is sometimes difficult to do which is why many people just play both sides to guarantee a small profit. Regardless... one side is still +EV. I realize that in most cases you can't find situations like this. But that doesn't mean that there's not a +EV side although many times there probably is not.

[SlickRick1382]

If it was, 5Dimes would be broke due to their open parlays.

That's not so because in the parlay, depending on the amount of teams in the parlay you need all of them to hit. If one misses then you're parlay loses where as if you were to bet them individually you still could of made a profit

[AdamStock1983]

Thanks for all the replies. I just hear this term thrown around a ton wanted to hear what it actually means.

[darkhat]

(k=1..) 1/kⁿ = ?

Although others have found that this expression equals PI² / 6 when n=2, PI⁴ / 90 when n = 4 and simple solutions for all possible even values of n, no one has discovered an exact value when n is an odd integer

[Inspirited]

Everyone thinks they are making +EV bets, even those who have never heard of EV, but obviously the overwhelming majority of us make more -EV bets than +EV bets. Even those who are capable of making more +EV bets might get destroyed by variance because they over bet.

[v1y]

-540 is not +EV no matter its result. Also, +EV can't be taken in isolation and inside a vacuum.

lol wtf? I don't think you know what +EV means.

[JohnGalt2341]

Whether you believe something to be +EV, does not make it so.

1+1 does not equal 3 no matter how much you want it to be, and believe it to be. +EV is simple math made very complex.

-540 is not +EV no matter its result. Also, +EV can't be taken in isolation and inside a vacuum.

A couple of people have already commented on what ChalkyDog wrote but I'm going to attempt to simplify it. I agree with his first 2 statements but not his last one. If there are 100 marbles in a bag and you know for sure that 85 of them are blue and 15 of them are red then there is an 85% chance that you will pull out a blue marble if you blindly reach into it and pull out a marble. If you gave me -540 to pick out a blue marble I would take it because I would have a very slight edge against -540. If there were more than 85 blue marbles in the bag I would once again take it against -540 because now I would have an even bigger edge. That being said... in the world of sports most people have no idea how many blue and red marbles are in the bag. And they almost always overestimate the particular color that they are betting on especially if they are emotionally attached to that particular marble(team). I can't remember the last time I made a bet with -540 odds or higher but I definitely would if I knew for certain that the chances of winning were 85% or more. In sports... 85% or higher is almost non-existent except in some College games.

[Duff85]

everyone thinks every bet they make is +EV.

Not quite true. Sportsfun and a number of others have had discussions on how many of our plays we think are +ev. Although you are trying to make +ev plays every time - it isn't going to happen. It's my belief (backed up by the data I have) that the no-vig closing line is a good measure of if the play is +ev or not.

[Duff85]

85% or higher is almost non-existent except in some College games.

And the chances of getting odds that are representative of that 85% are very low as well. If Alabama is 85% to win a game against someone chances are the odds will be more like -1250 not -540 because of the amount of people who want to back a "sure winner".

[AdamStock1983]

Ok so +EV seems to be a mathematical equation. Based on sports and the trillion plus variables that exist in every game isn't it impossible to equate any type of EV both positive and negative in any sports wagering? Sports is unscripted and each play could be totally different. How can you put a mathematical equation on that.

Am I wrong here?

[stevenash]

Anytime I can get +130 or so on a baseball game I think s/be a pick, I define that as +EV
(that's just me though)

[Duff85]

Ok so +EV seems to be a mathematical equation. Based on sports and the trillion plus variables that exist in every game isn't it impossible to equate any type of EV both positive and negative in any sports wagering? Sports is unscripted and each play could be totally different. How can you put a mathematical equation on that.

Am I wrong here?

The skill in sports betting (just like poker) is being able to process the information that you have available to you to make an accurate assessment of the probability of a certain result occurring over another one. There are a lot of different ways that one can arrive at a somewhat accurate picture of how probable a result is. If over thousands of bets your Return on Investment is similar to what your edge would be with your expected value - I believe it is safe to assume that your method for calculating your edge has been reasonably accurate.

So yes you are wrong, there certainly are ways that math can depict a somewhat accurate calculation of the EV of a betting selection.

[Phildo]

Ok so +EV seems to be a mathematical equation. Based on sports and the trillion plus variables that exist in every game isn't it impossible to equate any type of EV both positive and negative in any sports wagering? Sports is unscripted and each play could be totally different. How can you put a mathematical equation on that.

Am I wrong here?

It is an equation, but to do the equation you need to know the probability of an event happening. With cards, dice, coins, you can find that probability easily, with sports betting, you have to estimate it.

Another thing to point out is that a bet being +EV doesn't mean you are definitely going to win, and -EV doesn't mean you are definitely going to lose. If you can make a +ev bet an infinite number of times, you will make money, and the opposite with -ev, but in sports you are only betting on 1 event.

[accuscoresucks]

a person who wagers nothing but +EV bets is looking for a slight bias in the line giving them in theory 50-51% edge.they know since they get a +ev on a payout all they have to do is hit around 42% giving them a comfortable return.
example of a bias + line
team a is playing on the road and is ranked 12th
team b is at home and ranked 16th
the books set the line giving 2 points to the road team,making the money line +115
the bias in the line is the road team is better and getting +ev payout
http://www.wunderdog.com/

[dj_destroyer]

It's funny how some people get it... and some have no fukking clue.

[rfr3sh]

I love the people who think +ev means odds over +100

[accuscoresucks]

It's funny how some people get it... and some have no fukking clue.

care to add your 2c or are we forced to smell bad breath..
adding colgate toothpaste might make it +ev proposition??

[Inkwell77]

Good thread. Now I have no idea if what I believe is "true"....

From my understanding it is much easy to work +EV in terms of a Money Line. You think team A wins the game 60% of the time. The current price at a Sportsbook is teamA -140. You can then use a no-vig calculator and kelly criterion (which I'm assuming are the correct tools, there may be others that I don't know about) to calculate your perceived edge. This site is helpful

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

Still trying to figure out how one incorporates EV in terms of a point spread unless you are using the closing number as your reference point or you have a model that spits out point spreads. These are the only two ways that I can think of.

I know many people use half point calculators and other sorts of references when describing how much certain points are worth (key numbers and all that), I am at times skeptical of these values.... I guess that is why it makes more sense in my mind when talking about EV in terms of a ML

[rfr3sh]

You can get a decent idea of your edge with point spreads by using drop down menus at pinny, then you can tell if your bet is +EV, but if you have a half point calculator that is essentially the same thing