For everyones viewing pleasure at my expense.

Duff85 · 11-18-12, 08:29 PM

Why is this in the think thank? Also you took some terrible value and have no chance of making money long term unless you can learn to place value bets.

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 10:12 PM

What is the value of a bet other then if the bet is successful or not. I took the teams I felt we're the better football teams. Even if a team is -400 and you bet 400 dollars on it and win 100. That is better then putting a 100 on the +400 team that never wins.

Ernie Mccracken · 11-18-12, 10:15 PM

How did you figure this to be +EV?

Duff85 · 11-18-12, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by StrCrusade

What is the value of a bet other then if the bet is successful or not. I took the teams I felt we're the better football teams. Even if a team is -400 and you bet 400 dollars on it and win 100. That is better then putting a 100 on the +400 team that never wins.

No team is ever 100% to win a game before a contest is played (even if the game is fixed). Therefore each team has a certain % chance of winning, otherwise known as win probability. Working out what that number is and then finding bets that will pay out more than that is the key to winning at sports betting.

Chi_archie · 11-18-12, 10:20 PM

Originally posted by StrCrusade

What is the value of a bet other then if the bet is successful or not. I took the teams I felt we're the better football teams. Even if a team is -400 and you bet 400 dollars on it and win 100. That is better then putting a 100 on the +400 team that never wins.

value?

interesting question

what has more value a -400 ml fav that wins 79.8% of the time or a +400 dog that wins 19.9% of the time?

thirtytwo · 11-18-12, 10:22 PM

seems weird to see one + sign in this world of chalk, why didnt you take brady ml instead?

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by Chi_archie

value?

interesting question

what has more value a -400 ml fav that wins 79.8% of the time or a +400 dog that wins 19.9% of the time?

The % of an outcome taking place is either 100% or 0% either Team A is going to cover the Spread of they are not...Etc. The key to being profitable at sports betting is a combination of knowing who to play when AND knowing how many "units" to place on any given play. You can be right less then 50% of the time and still be profitable and **** versa

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by thirtytwo

seems weird to see one + sign in this world of chalk, why didnt you take brady ml instead?

I've been asking myself that question since about halftime.

ttwarrior1 · 11-18-12, 10:32 PM

average day of sbr

Chi_archie · 11-18-12, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by StrCrusade

The % of an outcome taking place is either 100% or 0% either Team A is going to cover the Spread of they are not...Etc. The key to being profitable at sports betting is a combination of knowing who to play when AND knowing how many "units" to place on any given play. You can be right less then 50% of the time and still be profitable and **** versa

right but if you can't grasp the concept of finding which has more value long term the 100% vs 0% mind-set will leave you with 0% of your bankroll.

so when you made that parlay you viewed it as either a 0% or 100% chance of winning?

if you believe that, than you must have put as much on that 10 teamer as you would have just for the atlanta falcons -460 ml leg of your ten teamer.

would you have felt equally confident putting all your money on ATL -460 single play as you would have with putting all your money on a ten team parlay?

of course no.

whether you think you do or not and whether you do so dumbly or not we PUT VALUE on our plays

we assign a % in our head of how likely our play is to win or lose, factual or not. its part of our experience as gamblers.

even dumb asses that believe they have "locks" are assigning a some sort of way over-valued value on their play.

its a long term deal, if you look at each play individually and not figure out when the line gives you value due to the market being off, you'll go broke due to the vig very fast

McBa1n · 11-18-12, 10:35 PM

Oof, brutal on the Colts. I loved them all week - and then didn't pull the trigger. That line was BEGGING me to take it. Normally I don't avoid low hanging fruit, just glad I did. Also - sucks it's what sunk your play.
Good decision on the other 9, though, dang.

easyliving · 11-18-12, 10:37 PM

u were willing to lay -1300 with houston and wouldn't take the pats ML at home?

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by easyliving

u were willing to lay -1300 with houston and wouldn't take the pats ML at home?

I see your point. I'll take Houston over Jacksonville 100% of the time. But I didnt like the spread. Hence the ML. Did it add value to my parlay? Yea, just not a lot. Now to answer your Pats ML @ home question. The Pats are not their usual Pats self. I felt like it was much more likely for the Colts not to get blown out, and didnt want to see a late Field Goal sink my parlay if the Colts were able to edge them.

Duff85 · 11-18-12, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by StrCrusade

The key to being profitable at sports betting is a combination of knowing who to play when AND knowing how many "units" to place on any given play. You can be right less then 50% of the time and still be profitable and **** versa

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 11:06 PM

Lets talk about value...Here's my 3-team parlay from earlier in the day as well:

Win	Football - 427 Cincinnati Bengals -3 -115 for Game Football - 413 Green Bay Packers -3 -120 for Game Football - 412 Washington Redskins -3½ -110 for Game

All I heard all week was what a great value the Lions were +3 at home. No matter how much you think the odds were in your favor if you decided to take the Lions + 3 today, regardless of how many units you placed on it. You lost. How much value is in that?

Duff85 · 11-18-12, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by StrCrusade

All I heard all week was what a great value the Lions were +3 at home. No matter how much you think the odds were in your favor if you decided to take the Lions + 3 today, regardless of how many units you placed on it. You lost. How much value is in that?

The game is not decided when you place you bet. Detroit very easily could have won with the +3 today. For the record I had Green Bay-3 (+100) which was good value. If I offered you -200 on GB-3 today and was the only bookie you had access to - would you bet it?

StrCrusade · 11-18-12, 11:22 PM

This is where we differ. Detroit could not have very easily won the +3 bet today. Either they were going to or they were not going to. And to answer your question if my only GB option for the day would have been GB -3 -200 I would have left it alone (not taken the other side of it, but left it alone). If I had only 1 play to make today it would have been Cinci -3 over Kansas City