70% siding w/Colts, 75 % of $$ on Patriots -10 , Sharp action??

[jrose2106]

On sbr's beta consensus listing all wagers, I can't believe New Eng is only getting 30% sides, that is very low I would think for them,but with 75% of money on them, average bet size like 8 times more on pats -10. Do you guys think this is the public riding Luck's D!ck even though the last win was vs the worst NFL team and thinking 10 is too much after N.E couldn't put away Buffalo? I'm thinking any book that might have dropped it to 9.5 got hit hard with sharp action. I'm thinking at -10 +110, buying the hook to 9.5 at around -120 is the play here. Thoughts????

[hockey216]

why the hell are you buying the hook at 10? not a good longterm move. you pay more in juice than the probability that the game lands.

[SpreadSniper]

why the hell are you buying the hook at 10? not a good longterm move. you pay more in juice than the probability that the game lands.

yup

knee-jerk reactions are so cute, but understandable..... those lines you bet on actually weren't created overnight.... assuming such is silly.

Your "intention" was probably to bet on the "sharper" end of the closer - 15 mins till kick, do you think you have the best possible line on the closer?

[TheCentaur]

Line will go down to 8.5 maybe even 7.5

[jrose2106]

why the hell are you buying the hook at 10? not a good longterm move. you pay more in juice than the probability that the game lands.

I personally think that this line will move to a more solid -10 with standard juice and eventually get up to 10 -115, if not 10.5, if that would pan out, getting it at 9.5 -120 doesn't seem too bad, but i do agree that it doesn't sound like the correct move over time. you seem pretty pissed off at my hook buy, can I ask ask in your opinion when it's worth buying if ever. 3 and 7 at least ??

[boeing power]

If you have to buy points it's not a good bet in the NFL IMO .

It's hard enough to win long term getting -105 lines.

When you start betting spreads at -120 to -130 you will get killed.

[SpreadSniper]

I personally think that this line will move to a more solid -10 with standard juice and eventually get up to 10 -115, if not 10.5, if that would pan out, getting it at 9.5 -120 doesn't seem too bad, but i do agree that it doesn't sound like the correct move over time. you seem pretty pissed off at my hook buy, can I ask ask in your opinion when it's worth buying if ever. 3 and 7 at least ??

love this guy....

just shutup and listen to what some other ass-hat tells you

[jrose2106]

forgot everyone is a pro bettor here, my fault. now if I don't have a long term plan to keep betting and I'm simply looking to maximize profits just for this week, risking way more than 2-5 % of my bankroll, closer to 30-50%, yes of my entire life savings,(not a whole lot) because of a need for cash for something in 2 weeks, then I probably will buy a hook or 2 this week considering I'm bout to risk way more of a bankroll than any 1 person should. And with that being my dumb and risky enough short term goal to get rich by next Fri I actually think in this situation if this line is still sitting at 10 and not available at 9.5 at any point before kick then I am increasing my chances of hitting this 1 game that I'm risking way too much on. I shouldve included the fact that I'm looking for a couple BIG hits this weekend, with full intentions of cashing out, then maybe return back to 1-2 % wagering some time later. didn't know i was going to get a lesson on buying hooks as they apply to long term professional betting. I live week to week fools and winning 5 -10 k would be a gift from God this week.

[jrose2106]

love this guy....

just shutup and listen to what some other ass-hat tells you

BTW your team re sign lee evans yet? I'd love to see another choke job in a big game, especially against my boys without Ben this week. Go STEELERS!

[jrose2106]

Line will go down to 8.5 maybe even 7.5

If it goes down to 7.5 ( which btw clowns, I never intended on putting in the bet without first watching the line movement to gain max line value considering the action is siding with indy and the line is already down to 9) then at 7.5 I'm buying the hook down to 7, maybe even 6.5 if i decide to risk 70% more of my bankroll, fuk the -145 ish juice or so for 1 game. 1 win

[eidolon]

I like buying the hook for 3, 7 and 49

[bobbyk1133]

On sbr's beta consensus listing all wagers, I can't believe New Eng is only getting 30% sides, that is very low I would think for them,but with 75% of money on them, average bet size like 8 times more on pats -10. Do you guys think this is the public riding Luck's D!ck even though the last win was vs the worst NFL team and thinking 10 is too much after N.E couldn't put away Buffalo? I'm thinking any book that might have dropped it to 9.5 got hit hard with sharp action. I'm thinking at -10 +110, buying the hook to 9.5 at around -120 is the play here. Thoughts????

You should not be betting real $$ on this sport.

[lonegambler]

no way this line goes down to 7 1/2

[bobbyk1133]

no way this line goes down to 7 1/2

There is virtually no difference between -8.5 and -7.5. The question is whether books will put this in the teaser window...

[jrose2106]

You should not be betting real $$ on this sport.

no baseball or hockey available

[Regul8er]

Pats win decisively!

There defense gets stops when needed, and they are a threat to score every single possession. Remember the Colts have lost 2 road games by 20+ points this year, and one of those was against the Jets!

[Regul8er]

End of the day, remember the Colts 4 game winning streak is against teams with a combined 11-26 record.
Sure its put them in position to make the playoffs, but have they improved to the point that they hang with the Pats at Foxboro??

Thats what I keep asking myself, and the answer continues to be a resounding NO.