Value calculator Week 10 NFL

billysink · 11-13-12, 06:52 PM

Positive numbers in the Per Point calculation mean that the wrong team may be favored based on this statistical analysis. High negative numbers mean value may lie with the favorite.

wantitall4moi · 11-13-12, 08:54 PM

It is a little hard to read but compare it to my system and see how close they are...

Buffalo
Cinci
Jax
Rams
Dallas
Car (should be small fav)
Atl
Det (PKem at best)
Phi
Oak (should be fav)
Denver
Indy
Pitt
SF (but Chi should be fav)

billysink · 11-13-12, 09:40 PM

Wanty mine says Chicago and Carolina will likely be the best value plays this week (for me). I am predicting an opener of -1.5 in San Francisco's favor although we may not see that lined until Saturday.

I could loosen up and get some more leans but I am pretty picky and will only make a few plays a week.

I would suspect very highly that if anything you are doing flags common plays with my system that they are very likely good bets. I am in the habit of looking at what you present weekly.

wantitall4moi · 11-13-12, 10:06 PM

the guideline for the Chi/SF game was SF -5. I think it will be -3 with vig to test the waters and move immediately on action.

billysink · 11-13-12, 10:09 PM

Originally posted by wantitall4moi

the guideline for the Chi/SF game was SF -5. I think it will be -3 with vig to test the waters and move immediately on action.

Gentleman's wager it does not see 3.

Kaepernick vs. the Bears D is going to be sided against much more than Campbell vs. the Niner's D.

Team	SS	OFF	DEF	SMART	DBPR	POWER	SP TM	QBR	OVERALL	MAR	ODDS	PER PT
Miami	30	26	22	5	22	13	1	18	137
Buffalo	9	14	31	23	23	26	12	21	159	-22	-1	22.00
Green Bay	11	19	14	8	11	11	3	7	84	65	-3.5	-18.57
Detroit	25	2	10	32	26	15	29	10	149
Cleveland	21	29	24	10	11	28	8	27	158
Dallas	7	9	8	31	27	7	7	11	107	51	-8.5	-6.00
Jacksonville	19	32	26	27	30	32	21	30	217
Houston	2	15	2	4	3	2	26	3	57	160	-15.5	-10.32
Cincinnati	18	20	19	19	8	31	6	21	142	19	-3.5	-5.43
Kansas City	24	18	11	20	28	9	20	31	161
N.Y. Jets	8	30	17	29	14	29	10	19	156
St. Louis	3	24	15	25	20	22	28	21	158	-2	-3	0.67
Arizona	14	31	9	12	6	25	23	20	140
Atlanta	22	6	20	1	7	19	18	4	97	43	-9.5	-4.53
Tampa Bay	28	12	30	9	19	14	30	15	157	-10	-1	10.00
Carolina	1	23	16	15	15	24	27	26	147
Philadelphia	13	8	12	28	30	6	32	5	134
Washington	10	7	28	20	21	19	22	17	144	-10	-3.5	2.86
New Orleans	6	4	32	17	16	27	14	21	137	49	-4.5	-10.89
Oakland	29	13	23	14	25	30	31	21	186
San Diego	27	22	7	10	16	4	16	28	130
Denver	4	3	6	23	9	9	4	1	59	71	-8.5	-8.35
Indianapolis	32	5	18	22	30	12	24	15	158
New England	16	1	25	3	5	8	19	6	83	75	-9.5	-7.89
Baltimore	26	16	27	18	10	23	5	7	132
Pittsburgh	31	17	1	26	29	5	17	7	133	-1	-3.5	0.29
Chicago	5	28	5	6	1	3	13	12	73	22
San Francisco	20	11	3	29	18	1	11	2	95

SS=SCHEDULE STRENGTH
OFF=OFFENSE YARD PER GAME
DEF=DEFENSE YARDS ALLOWED PER GAME
SMART=PENALTY YARDAGE FOR AND AGAINST. TURNOVER MARGIN
DBPR= DEFENSIVE BIG PLAYS, SACKS,INT,FUM RECOVERED
POWER=OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE 3RD DOWN PERCENTAGE, OFF AND DEF YARDS PER RUSH, TIME OF POSSESSION.
SP TEAM =PUNT AND KICKOFF AVG YARD FOR AND AGAINST, NET PUNT YARDS FOR AND AGAINST
QBR=TEAM QB RATING BOTH OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE
TOTAL AND MARGIN=A SUMMARY OF ABOVE DATA AND THE MARGIN BETWEEN TWO MATCHED UP TEAMS