BCS Championship lines

[SBR_John]

The most likely scenario is:
Oregon -7.5
Kansas St

Notre Dame
Oregon -7

Oregon
Alabama PK

Kansas St
Notre Dame PK

Seems like I'm missing someone

[Br0nxer]

The most likely scenario is:
Oregon -7.5
Kansas St

Notre Dame
Oregon -7

Oregon
Alabama PK

Kansas St
Notre Dame PK

Seems like I'm missing someone

Oregon-ND line seems a bit low

Still like Bama regardless of what happened yesterday

[sweep]

Bama/K.st ?

[SBR_John]

Bama/K.st ?

Bama K St could well play but i doubt it will be for the title. Buttt, all those teams have one or two very hard games remaining.

I'm sure when KState saw Okla crush Texas they were probably thinking we're good there. As good as oregon is would it shock anyone if they lost to either Stanford or Org St or both? Bama is in good shape with only Georgia left. Those conference championship games at times favor the dog and catching the fav looking ahead. But I don't think Ga has enough talent.

Who else? Notre Dame? Goota love the determination of the Irish. The sharps and public pounded Okla when the Irish came for a visit. All ND did was stand toe to toe for 2.5 qtrs and then pulled away. This should be a truly great game.

Bronxer, on second thought maybe your right. Maybe -9.5 Oregon over ND?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Would play K St. at a PK over ND.

[Br0nxer]

Bama K St could well play but i doubt it will be for the title. Buttt, all those teams have one or two very hard games remaining.

I'm sure when KState saw Okla crush Texas they were probably thinking we're good there. As good as oregon is would it shock anyone if they lost to either Stanford or Org St or both? Bama is in good shape with only Georgia left. Those conference championship games at times favor the dog and catching the fav looking ahead. But I don't think Ga has enough talent.

Who else? Notre Dame? Goota love the determination of the Irish. The sharps and public pounded Okla when the Irish came for a visit. All ND did was stand toe to toe for 2.5 qtrs and then pulled away. This should be a truly great game.

Bronxer, on second thought maybe your right. Maybe -9.5 Oregon over ND?

yes

was thinking 9.5 or even 10

[BIGDAY]

I hope KState gets in. Everyone will Pound the opponent no matter who it is.

KState ML!!!!!

[SBR_John]

I hope KState gets in. Everyone will Pound the opponent no matter who it is.

KState ML!!!!!

ND is in the same boat, no one believes. Would be great if they made it but I'm in the camp that believes there are 3-5 teams that would be favored over ND or K ST. One or two by double digits.

[sweep]

Oregon looks like a fukkin monster....

[Louisvillekid1]

The most likely scenario is:
Oregon -7.5
Kansas St

Notre Dame
Oregon -7

Oregon
Alabama PK

Kansas St
Notre Dame PK

Seems like I'm missing someone

I fukkin hope so pal,

Kansas ST +7.5 vs Oregon, Oregon -7 vs ND , and Kansas St pk vs nd are all gifts...

Oregon/bama pk is no play...

[Chimneyfish]

Give me K State +7.5

[BigDeem5]

Bama has 0 shot. Overrated.. They could beat an NFL team..

[SBR_John]

With the remaining schedule I'd give Bama a 50-50 chance at getting an invite to the National Title Game. Have to look at it a lot closer. Just off the top of my head I would think they need 2 of 3 to lose one game. Actually doesn't take any thinking. If only one team losses out of Oregon, Kansas St and ND then the other two will play. But if two out of three drop a game then Bama is in.

[wantitall4moi]

Alabama totally over rated, they really should have lost at LSU also, and they did lose AT HOME yesterday. Notre Dame got gifted a game and probably should have lost one or two more.

[aleiverson02]

bahahah, is Bama doesn't get in this will be the easiest money in the world. Oregon is a machine, yes I'm from Eugene ( home of the ducks) yes im an avid duck fan, but this team is like nothing I've ever seen. If Texas AM can beat bama which supposedly can beat NFL teams with their fast hurry up offense then Oregon would destroy anyone/ I would bet OREGON spread on any of these. they have only played 2 games through 4 qtrs and that was against SC and Cal. These team is great. Most of you guys are prolly on the east or south and dont get a chance to watch my ducks run through teams like teams like a bad liquidy shit after a long night of drinking!

[pokernut9999]

Notre Dame will lose to USC and the big upset will be Texas knocking off Kansas St.

[Inkwell77]

Oregon would be -13 versus Notre Dame easily. The whole world would pound anything up to -10 most likely.
They are -23 versus Stanford lol

Although I truly hope Oregon loses to Stanford/Oregon St/USC or UCLA

[aleiverson02]

Bahaha Oregon losing? Thats like saying Chip Kelley has one ball!
Everybody knows Chip Kelly has 2 balls that weigh 3 tons and scrape the floor!
GO DUCKS
541
EUGENE
Heisman coming 12(Barner) 13(Mariota) 14( Mariota/DAT) 15( Mariota/Dat)

[billysink]

Not the least bit interested in speculation. I will handicap whoever is there at the time and week to week until it arrives.

[Cuse0323]

Wow, this makes me hope ND gets in.

[Monte]

With the remaining schedule I'd give Bama a 50-50 chance at getting an invite to the National Title Game.

Please put that up in your sportsbook, and make it 10k points limits. Thanks.
You can make it -120 -120

[Killer_Demo]

Oregon wins it this year

[indio]

With the remaining schedule I'd give Bama a 50-50 chance at getting an invite to the National Title Game. Have to look at it a lot closer. Just off the top of my head I would think they need 2 of 3 to lose one game. Actually doesn't take any thinking. If only one team losses out of Oregon, Kansas St and ND then the other two will play. But if two out of three drop a game then Bama is in.

A prop bet like this is usually reasoned out for maximum accuracy. Your 50/50 contention is way off. How far off is a matter of speculation, but I give them a 28% chance, and that's probably a little generous. This is a prop that can be reasoned out with math to give us a market price.

First off, what would have to happen for Alabama to make it to the title game? For starters, they have to beat Georgia (and W.Carolina and Auburn). Then they need 2 out of 3 (or all 3) of Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame losing. Let's break it down :

I'd say Alabama has a 98.8% chance of beating Auburn (I don't care how bad Auburn is, they've been looking forward to this for a month and you have to give them a 1 in 81 chance). What will Alabama be ML vs. Georgia? I'd say around -400 (probably on the high side at that). Let's put the chances of Alabama beating Auburn and Georgia at 80%.

Now, what are the chances of Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame losing? Well let's just figure their chances of winning out based on probable ML's. I think Notre Dame will be close to a pick 'em vs. USC (more likely a small underdog), so for simple math, let's put Notre Dame's chances of going undefeated at 50% (apologies to Wake Forest for being ignored). K-State will be around -400 (80%) on the road at Baylor, and around -400 at home vs. Texas (this could be closer to-300 one can argue). This gives K-State around a 64% chance of going undefeated. Oregon will be around -800 vs. Stanford, and I'm guessing they'll be around -600 vs. Oregon St. and either -600 (USC) or -800 (UCLA) in their PAC-12 title game. So if they are 88.89% vs Stanford, 85.71% vs Oregon St, and lets say 85.71% vs USC (or UCLA), that gives them a 65% chance of going unbeaten.

ND-loses = 50% ND unbeaten =50% K-State loses= 36% K-State unbeaten =64% Oregon loses = 35% Oregon unbeaten = 65%.

Lets look at the 8 scenarios. losing marked with L, unbeaten marked with U.

ND U .50 X KST U .64 X OU U .65 = .208
ND U .50 X KST U .64 X OU L .35 = .112
ND U .50 X KST L .36 X OU U .65 = .117
ND U .50 X KST L .36 X OU L .35 = .063
ND L .50 X KST U .64 X OU U .65 = .208
ND L .50 X KST U .64 X OU L .35 = .112
ND L .50 X KST L .36 X OU W .65 = .117
ND L .50 X KST L .36 X OU L .36 = .063

So I'd say the chances of at least 2 out of the 3 ahead of them losing is 35.5%, and then they must win out themselves which we put the chances at 80%, which means all the necessary results has a 28% chance of occurring, so I say a fair line on Alabama making the title game is +250. Now of course, that's using my estimations (which could be off). But the breakdown formula is correct. If you think my ML projections are off, I'd be curious to see another opinion on the breakdown percentages. I could certainly see Notre Dame's chances of losing at closer to 60%, but I just don't see either K-State or Oregon ever being less than 60% to go unbeaten, so I just can't see anyway Alabama can be 40% to make it , let alone 50%.

[indio]

Using the above formula, we can calculate odds of various title game matchups between Oregon, K-State, Notre Dame, Alabama,and Field.
I added 5% juice onto the lines.


Oregon vs. K State +125
Oregon vs Notre Dame +700
K-State vs Notre Dame +750
Oregon vs Alabama +700
K-State vs Alabama +960
Alabama vs Notre Dame +1800
Alabama vs Field +4000
Oregon vs Field +4000
K-State vs Field +4000
Notre Dame vs Field +7500
Field vs. Field +10000

This makes a minor attempt to assume if Oregon, K-State and Note Dame all lose, Oregon might still make the title game.

I'd love to hear conflicting opinions, and where these lines are off, as I'm just killing some time and running some rough numbers.