I've been betting on football sides without watching their games....do you?

[JayLA]

This year is the first year I dont play fantasy, I've been working so I can't catch most of the games at my friends house....and my wagers have been suffering cause of it.

I just ordered NFL game rewind so I can actually SEE how the teams are playing, instead of relying on stats, NFL Network, sports radio, and highlight reels.

I think watching the games gives you a feel for the teams tendencies, inefficiencies..things you can't get from listening to others.

whether it's college, or NFL, do you all agree that actually WATCHIN the games gives you a HUGE benefit? or do sharp players, JUST KNOW..

I honestly think if i had seen ATlanta play this year, I wouldn't have gone with Philadelphia.....

[Paul Kemp]

This year is the first year I dont play fantasy, I've been working so I can't catch most of the games at my friends house....and my wagers have been suffering cause of it.

I just ordered NFL game rewind so I can actually SEE how the teams are playing, instead of relying on stats, NFL Network, sports radio, and highlight reels.

I think watching the games gives you a feel for the teams tendencies, inefficiencies..things you can't get from listening to others.

whether it's college, or NFL, do you all agree that actually WATCHIN the games gives you a HUGE benefit? or do sharp players, JUST KNOW..

I honestly think if i had seen ATlanta play this year, I wouldn't have gone with Philadelphia.....

Odd that you bring this up, JayLa - only recently have I started doing the same thing. It's still to early for me to tell if it's bringing my profits down - don't think it will become a habit. Do you watch highlights? Do you read/research intel? Those last two would have told you to stay away from Vick.

[JayLA]

Odd that you bring this up, JayLa - only recently have I started doing the same thing. It's still to early for me to tell if it's bringing my profits down - don't think it will become a habit. Do you watch highlights? Do you read/research intel? Those last two would have told you to stay away from Vick.

I look at stats, read previews, read local newspapers....

and you're right about Vick, i just thought his offensive line would give him a bit more....

[Paul Kemp]

I look at stats, read previews, read local newspapers....

and you're right about Vick, i just thought his offensive line would give him a bit more....

Good point - I did as well. If he continues on this current path - how long will the NFL keep him around? Cripes - Tebow is still here, so that is good for Vick.

[Wilfred]

For all the hate on Vick it really isn't his fault. The offensive line is just atrocious. You can see it in LeSean McCoy struggling as well. Honestly they would be in a worse position if they didnt have a mobile Quarterback.


Back to your original question, I think you definitely need to see a little bit of the teams play to make an educated bet. Or at least if you don't you should be looking at the play by play instead of the stat lines to see exactly what was going on.

[Beetlejuice]

Well, I have to say I'm not even really a fan of football, or sports in general. I have no idea, between all the different teams/stats/etc, how one would be able to jump in and even begin to keep track. Having said that, the only reason I DO watch it is because I have been scalping live lines since the 11th of this month, and I'm steadily gaining profit (up 14 units!)

I usually rely on people's judgement on this forum and it guides a lot of my plays. Yes, I do that.

[pokeraddict2012]

Watching the games of each team gives U better feel and instincts of what to make out of it, just looking at stats and records do help but not enough.

[k13]

Watching games gives you no edge, it actually blinds you and you become like the rest of the herd.

Books basically give you all the winners.

[MeatWad]

Watching the games is huge for me. Especially the college games, because the teams are soo disparate. At the beginning of the season especially, the odds often don't reflect the true quality of the teams and wathing them play is the best way to determine who is over/undervalued.

I am now super pumped up for college basketball to begin. The best time to make money is early in the season, like NCAAF. There will be teams way overrated and underrated, watching them play allows you to see this value early before the odds adjust to reality.

[JayLA]

Watching games gives you no edge, it actually blinds you and you become like the rest of the herd.

Books basically give you all the winners.

I sense sarcasm.....Sports betting books? I ordered them all, i'm reading them currently.

I cannot agree with this though, i think the rest of the herd does what i do. Work 6 days a week, spot bet on gameday. I think by watching the actual play on the field, a pretty good Football guy like myself gets a major edge.

but thanks for the advice, i've read your posts and you seem pretty knowledgeable.

[JayLA]

Watching the games is huge for me. Especially the college games, because the teams are soo disparate. At the beginning of the season especially, the odds often don't reflect the true quality of the teams and wathing them play is the best way to determine who is over/undervalued.

I am now super pumped up for college basketball to begin. The best time to make money is early in the season, like NCAAF. There will be teams way overrated and underrated, watching them play allows you to see this value early before the odds adjust to reality.

I'll just follow my friends and you all for basketball, i truly need to learn the game. I don't know what the difference is between a shooting gaurd and a point guard. I think i heard something about "college basketball teams use less zone defense"....lol that's interesting. wtf is a zone defense in basketball? LOL

[Aldous Snow]

I almost never watch college football and went 4/5 this weekend. I watch a lot of NFL and I went 1/4.

[k13]

I sense sarcasm.....Sports betting books? I ordered them all, i'm reading them currently.

I cannot agree with this though, i think the rest of the herd does what i do. Work 6 days a week, spot bet on gameday. I think by watching the actual play on the field, a pretty good Football guy like myself gets a major edge.

but thanks for the advice, i've read your posts and you seem pretty knowledgeable.

I don't mean "books". I meant sports books and lines.

That is if you think by watching football, you know more than books already know....

[JayLA]

I don't mean "books". I meant sports books and lines.

That is if you think by watching football, you know more than books already know....

Yes, this theme comes up in the books im reading....everyone has the same information......

i think a combination of everything can give you an edge. the opininon of homers+fading talking heads+knowledge of the game+sportsbook expierence+knowing team's is a winning formula. might be naive there, but im only 25 and have been serious about poker/sports betting since i was 19, that's only six years. and i have won, cashed out, and seen profits from all this....

my plan is make it so i only lose when i get unlucky, like in poker.
if some team backdoor covers on you, you can't beat yourself up. but if you lay points and the dog rolls (like with philly/atl).....you kind of feel stupid.

[PaperTrail07]

would you feel better if you watched and lost....like me

[Vinnie Paz]

Barely watch any college
Hard catching games on Saturday nights

[k13]

Yes, this theme comes up in the books im reading....everyone has the same information......

i think a combination of everything can give you an edge. the opininon of homers+fading talking heads+knowledge of the game+sportsbook expierence+knowing team's is a winning formula. might be naive there, but im only 25 and have been serious about poker/sports betting since i was 19, that's only six years. and i have won, cashed out, and seen profits from all this....

my plan is make it so i only lose when i get unlucky, like in poker.
if some team backdoor covers on you, you can't beat yourself up. but if you lay points and the dog rolls (like with philly/atl).....you kind of feel stupid.

Well, NFL is like Poker.

AK does not always beat Q10s or QQ vs AK but in the long run you will profit if you are the one holding the small edge.

You will still lose ~40% + which seems like a lot but that's how it is.

[k13]

By "watching" football, you will blow your load on the Broncos against the Bengals next week but in reality it's just another 55-45 game.

[TheLock]

You can make GOBS of money losing 45% of your NFL wagers.

With that said, you're picking the wrong battle by betting NFL sides and totals.

Bet small market college hoops and MLB. Not nearly as efficient as NFL sides/totals.

[JayLA]

By "watching" football, you will blow your load on the Broncos against the Bengals next week but in reality it's just another 55-45 game.

what if by watching broncos and bengals, you know bengals WR run certain routes...broncos DB's have certain tendencies....Bengal's o-line give up large number of sacks cause their RT is wack. Dalton locks on to his reciever...AJ Green doesn't create separation....
don't these kind of things make your Broncos ML wager a bit more safer? instead of just saying: Oh, manning vs. dalton....easy money.

i hear what you're saying but i have a feeling most NFL gamblers don't study film. I love football so i will study nfl rewind with pleasure and hopefully make some better decisions because of it.. kind of like my dolphins, i've been on point in predicting how they come out....because i'm invested in them.

[JayLA]

You can make GOBS of money losing 45% of your NFL wagers.

With that said, you're picking the wrong battle by betting NFL sides and totals.

Bet small market college hoops and MLB. Not nearly as efficient as NFL sides/totals.

you're absolutely right brother. currently diving head first into the college football game....and a little NCAAB and MLB researching.

[freakydave]

You can make GOBS of money losing 45% of your NFL wagers.

With that said, you're picking the wrong battle by betting NFL sides and totals.

Bet small market college hoops and MLB. Not nearly as efficient as NFL sides/totals.

+1

I agree 100%

[HardCore]

watching gives u an edge because i have a reliability stat that i created when i cap gms in baseball i bet yankees nats white soxs and rays all year long cause i knew them cause i watch them the most same in nba bulls pistons heat and 76ers are all i bet in nba cause i atched them the most...now the NFL is a hole different beast NFL is a crap shoot at best i dont care how much you watch it ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN NFL i mean the browns beat sd 7-6 the giants blow a 23point lead brees only scores 14 points on DEN d and the packers almost lost to jax...F#UCK NFL

[HardCore]

1 more thing NFL is the worst casue its once a week and you can never really get a feel for a team unlike nba n mlb where u can watch them enough to no them inside and out plus nfl is a headache theres just nothing to hang your hat on when picking the spreads mlb u have pitching and in the nba you have ELITE players (lebron/Durrant) in the nfl brees cant play d and ray lewis cant play qb so theres nothing to hang your hat on

[suicidekings]

For all the hate on Vick it really isn't his fault. The offensive line is just atrocious. You can see it in LeSean McCoy struggling as well. Honestly they would be in a worse position if they didnt have a mobile Quarterback.

No... Vick's the problem. A less capable OL can protect a pocket passer that stays at home and has a decent release time, with maybe an extra tight end on the line against a tough pass rush. Vick holds the ball longer in passing situations than any other starting QB in the league, making it much harder on the PHI OL to protect for a longer time, play after play. An average QB releases in 2.4 seconds, while Vick is around 3.3 seconds. Over the aggregate, that difference is ENORMOUS and makes it really tough to protect him.

He might be a good athlete, but he's a shitty QB.

[lakerboy]

Watching games does not help you. Bet where you have edges. Nfl is all perception.

[k13]

now the NFL is a hole different beast NFL is a crap shoot at best i dont care how much you watch it ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN NFL i mean the browns beat sd 7-6 the giants blow a 23point lead brees only scores 14 points on DEN d and the packers almost lost to jax...F#UCK NFL

All those games the books gave you the story. There should be no surprise.

Chargers open -3, squares blow their load, goes off the key number.... Browns win.
Packers open -16, line gets beat down, Jags cover.
Broncos open -6, squares can't believe all these points and love saints, line moves to -6.5, public underdog on the road.....SNF.....blowout

Every week it's the same story just people don't want to believe it or think its fixed.

[suicidekings]

i think it depends on what kind of person you are. Maybe some people can't watch the game objectively, but to say that no one can gain an edge from watching games is foolish. It shouldn't be your primary source of info for sure, but teams change over time, and aggregate stats don't tell you how a team is doing right now.

[TheMoneyShot]

Sports books tip plays... right when the line shifted to Denver -0.5 +105 for the 2nd half line... I was all over that! I almost selected New Orleans +0.5 but the entire world would of been on NO for +10.5... I'm like no way... not doing it. Happy that Manning did his thang!

[JayLA]

All those games the books gave you the story. There should be no surprise.

Chargers open -3, squares blow their load, goes off the key number.... Browns win.
Packers open -16, line gets beat down, Jags cover.
Broncos open -6, squares can't believe all these points and love saints, line moves to -6.5, public underdog on the road.....SNF.....blowout

Every week it's the same story just people don't want to believe it or think its fixed.

I had it like this k13, made small profits off each game. didn't post cause i dont like talking out of my ass. but i can show you the right small risk WINS.

San Diego is a disfuntional team, horrible on the east coast. Norv turner will be gone this year....(among other things) cleveland wins

packers lost a major man in Philbin, not as efficient on offense....defense secondary has always been bad. Jags cover.....(i admit i only risked 5 bucks on this straight bet)

and the saints are in dire straits, homie. manning gives that solid club a boost to cover against bad saints team. i risked 50 on DEN-6.5.

all three won, K13, and that's just my average NFL fan knowledge, imagine if i had seen Atlanta's crazy undefeated season from game 1....i'd likely say "philly, not getting it done...atlanta rolls." i could have made 3k on a parlay that included Miami, GIants, Atlanta had i seen whatever the fukk mike smith is doing down there with falcons.

edit: i think my non-fantasy season isn't giving me a production VS team edge. i might be wrong.,


thanks everyone for the insight! let's make some money.

[JohnGalt2341]

Maybe some people can't watch the game objectively

I don't think I've ever met a person in my entire life that has ever watched any game objectively. Oddly enough... everyone THINKS they are objective.

[JayLA]

I don't think I've ever met a person in my entire life that has ever watched any game objectively. Oddly enough... everyone THINKS they are objective.

as an inquisitive person, anything i waste my time with, i approach objectively.

i hear you though, there are some retards that need to stop investing into random luck. I agree. but since i was hustling lunch money playing dice with suburban kids, i'm SUPER objective with anything that comes down to money.

[k13]

NFL, all about perception.

[suicidekings]

I don't think I've ever met a person in my entire life that has ever watched any game objectively. Oddly enough... everyone THINKS they are objective.

Perhaps not 100% objective. However at the athlete/coach level, film study is critical to success, so how can it have no value for sports bettors who are also just trying to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the teams? That statement seems to have the built-in assumption that bettors can't be rational enough to make use of the same tools that are standard in the sports industry.

[HoulihansTX]

If you bet enough college games, its impossible to have watched every team you bet on.