Question on Flat bet and chase match.

[BetaB]

Assuming one has 20% ROI and no Vig(even line) say hit rate of 60%.

If you flat bet 200 bet you would expect 120 wins and 80 loses so +40units

Now if you do 3 games chase, the chance of losing 3 straight would be =0.4*0.4*0.4 =6.4% and a lose would cost 1+2+4 = 7 units. Therefore, in 200 bets, one would expect to win 187 time and lose around 6.4x2 or 13times(round up) and bag 96 units.

Now, here is the question. Since 1 units for chase and flat betting would obviously different and as i understand 1unit of flat bet should be = 7/3(average of 3 games chase) = 2.3333 units. But when i recalculate the profit flat betting =40x2.3333 = 93.33 which is less than 96... when i fully expect +96units. Can someone explain where i went wrong?

Note: Obviously not rounding up would increase unit won when chasing.

[Justin7]

No chase systems in the think tank!

[BetaB]

Likewise assuming -110 odd.

Flat bet 200 play ===> 120 wins +120
80 loses -88
net 32 units

Chase: A risk 1.1 to win 1
B risk (1.1+1)x1.1 =2.31
C Risk (1+1.1+2.31)x1.1 = 4.851
Total =1.1+2.31+4.851 = 7.961 ( 6.4% chance of losing)
i.e. 200 bets
Win 187.2 bets = +187.2
Lose 12.8 bets = - 12.8x7.961 = 101.9
Net = +85.3 units
Average risk = 7.961/3 =2.653 units

Equate to flat bet profit =32x2.653
= 84.9 units


So unless there is some error in the math, does this suggest i should just from a random 3 game chase instead of flat betting and adjust the unit accordingly?

[BetaB]

Dude, i'm not proposing a system. I'm asking about the math behind it.

[Sam Odom]

No chase systems in the think tank!

Only 'sharp' plays and Sharps allowed

[BetaB]

Hopefully, i will get an answer. I mean, if you think about it a little more, using average bet size would favor flat betting as 60% of the time one would only risk 1 units 24% 2units and 16% 4 units.
Average those 3 give .6x1+.24x2+.16x4 = 1.72 units only. Thus ROI when chasing would be much higher.