Why do peope keep saying 'team A is winning but just gettin by'

[Louisvillekid1]

This is the sign of a good team! The Louisville write up on the front page says Louisville is 7-0 but they have just snuck by winning 5 games by less than 7 points or whatever it is...

If anything this should be capped as a positive angle, no?

Maybe it's just me...

But,

Phil Steele suggest teams that win a lot of close games the year before could be in for a let down and vise versa, but during the year it shows a team's confidence to continue to win close games.

[LT Profits]

Sadly (for you) your boys may be 7-1 after tonight. But I have +4 so I'll let you win by 3.

[broadway6]

True. I guess the argument could be made that if a team plays a lot of close games that they could easily lose a close game or two in the future.

Louisville has looked great IMO. Hopefully the win every game and cause BCS issues.

[gojetsgomoxies]

they look at the scores??

[Louisvillekid1]

Sadly (for you) your boys may be 7-1 after tonight. But I have +4 so I'll let you win by 3.

Not going to happen LT!

Going 7-1 that is...

[Louisvillekid1]

they look at the scores??

[gojetsgomoxies]

good luck louisville BTW, i am pulling for you guys

[leetreaper]

Sadly (for you) your boys may be 7-1 after tonight. But I have +4 so I'll let you win by 3.

F...that man, only straight up or its unacceptable...

[gojetsgomoxies]

Phil Steele suggest teams that win a lot of close games the year before could be in for a let down and vise versa, but during the year it shows a team's confidence to continue to win close games.

i'd never heard that but it makes alot sense to me. i like phil's analysis of year-to-year change but i'd like to see more analysis of in-season i.e. if you have terrible turnover margin, is that often fixable during the year? and obviously fixable different ways (play better or play different strategy) which makes a huge difference.

[Louisvillekid1]

i'd never heard that but it makes alot sense to me. i like phil's analysis of year-to-year change but i'd like to see more analysis of in-season i.e. if you have terrible turnover margin, is that often fixable during the year? and obviously fixable different ways (play better or play different strategy) which makes a huge difference.

There is a term he uses for it, let me check the magazine real quick...

[Louisvillekid1]

Maybe it's not a term but here is a brief explanation....

Here a list of teams that had atleast 3 net close losses in '11, (meaning he thinks these teams will have better success this year)

UCF 6
Ohio St 4
Indiana 4
Miami,FL 4
USF 4
VAndy 4
Tex A&M 4
Navy 3
Army 3
Idaho 3
Pitt 3
Bowling Green 3
ULM 3
Memphis 3

Here a list of teams that had atleast 3 net close Wins in '11, (meaning he thinks these teams will less success this year)

K St 7
Louisiana 5
Wyoming 5
Marshall 5
Virginia 4
Baylor 4
Ball St 4
Penn St 4
Iowa St 4
Northern Ill 3
BYU 3
S Carolina 3
USC 3
WVU 3
Virginia Tech 3
Mich St 3
Auburn 3
Houston 3
Michigan 3
Arky 3

[Louisvillekid1]

good luck louisville BTW, i am pulling for you guys

[2daBank]

i mentioned somewhere there is def something to be said for fact they winning close gms but at same time it makes the points hard to pass up as dont see a lot of reason this one isnt tight late....

[Louisvillekid1]

LAst 10 years results:

4+ net losses 91.4 % better/same next year
3 net losses 80.7%
2 net losses 71.2%
2 or more 77.2%

6 or 7 Net close wins 100% worse/same next year
4 or 5 net close wins 83.3%
3 net close wins 74.7%
2 net close wins 68%
3 or more net close wins 78.6%
2 or more net close wins 73.6%

[mikmik]

im on Louiville Ml 300 and Cinci +4 300. Please Lou win by 3. I want an RU and LOU 11-0 match up nov 29. Lou Kid we should tai;gate for that game.

[jackpot269]

A lot of good info thanks fellows !!'

[Louisvillekid1]

im on Louiville Ml 300 and Cinci +4 300. Please Lou win by 3. I want an RU and LOU 11-0 match up nov 29. Lou Kid we should tai;gate for that game.

Im def going to be there,

They still make you take that stupid fukkin shuttle from the parking lot to the game?

[rm18]

Rutgers -12

[chunk]

LAst 10 years results:

4+ net losses 91.4 % better/same next year
3 net losses 80.7%
2 net losses 71.2%
2 or more 77.2%

6 or 7 Net close wins 100% worse/same next year
4 or 5 net close wins 83.3%
3 net close wins 74.7%
2 net close wins 68%
3 or more net close wins 78.6%
2 or more net close wins 73.6%

Possibly might help with futures as it is related to W/L records year to year.

[mikmik]

yes if you park at the rac. Im a first year season ticket holder. That's where I tailgate. Please dont bet RU-12 tommorow. Some reason we have a tough time scoring Pts at home. We will be in a battle tommorow but win the game. RU vs LOU both 11-0 Nov 29 for big east championship. LOCK it

[Louisvillekid1]

Looking forward to it, but we got alot of work left to do...

[Louisvillekid1]

Possibly might help with futures as it is related to W/L records year to year.

[2daBank]

LK what kind of total you have set on this one? final score idea?

[Louisvillekid1]

LK what kind of total you have set on this one? final score idea?

31-23 Ville

[2daBank]

31-23 Ville

right on...thanx

[smoke a bowl]

This is the sign of a good team! The Louisville write up on the front page says Louisville is 7-0 but they have just snuck by winning 5 games by less than 7 points or whatever it is...

If anything this should be capped as a positive angle, no?

Maybe it's just me...

But,

Phil Steele suggest teams that win a lot of close games the year before could be in for a let down and vise versa, but during the year it shows a team's confidence to continue to win close games.

It's great if you consider random luck a good and predictable thing.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Maybe it's not a term but here is a brief explanation....

Here a list of teams that had atleast 3 net close losses in '11, (meaning he thinks these teams will have better success this year)

UCF 6
Ohio St 4
Indiana 4
Miami,FL 4
USF 4
VAndy 4
Tex A&M 4
Navy 3
Army 3
Idaho 3
Pitt 3
Bowling Green 3
ULM 3
Memphis 3

Here a list of teams that had atleast 3 net close Wins in '11, (meaning he thinks these teams will less success this year)

K St 7
Louisiana 5
Wyoming 5
Marshall 5
Virginia 4
Baylor 4
Ball St 4
Penn St 4
Iowa St 4
Northern Ill 3
BYU 3
S Carolina 3
USC 3
WVU 3
Virginia Tech 3
Mich St 3
Auburn 3
Houston 3
Michigan 3
Arky 3

both lists are decent. thinking improvement list is better. deterioration has alot of winning ats teams but it does highlight virginia which has been a good deterioration pick.

the tough thing about winning close games (and especially come from behind wins in 4th quarter) is that so many things are outside the team's controls that you are bring alot of randomness/variation into it. i guess if they do it over and over again then they are good at it

anyway, as i said i want to learn more about in-season trends. i think phil steele publishes great stuff for the new season where things change alot

[gojetsgomoxies]

just got home. when i saw the score the first thing i thought about was this thread

but they are coming back i see.

[rm18]

Hello

[TPowell]

idiots dont understand that some teams play to WIN, not cover the spread or blow the other team out

[gojetsgomoxies]

just got home. when i saw the score the first thing i thought about was this thread

but they are coming back i see.

hey, when i saw the final score i thought of this thread first too.... great win!!! hope bridgewater starts getting some much deserved heisman love.

[gojetsgomoxies]

idiots dont understand that some teams play to WIN, not cover the spread or blow the other team out

is being down 10 points near the end of the 3rd quarter part of the plan?

[gojetsgomoxies]

one devil's advocate question is how much of hawaii's terrible performance vs. BYU had to do with losing their defensive tackles early? nevada has put a ton of points on alot of teams the last few years i think so maybe that performance wasn't that bad.

my real opinion though is that hawaii is terrible and isn't going to recover any time soon. i would take tulane and/or umass over hawaii neutral field i think.

[greenhippo]

im on Louiville Ml 300 and Cinci +4 300. Please Lou win by 3. I want an RU and LOU 11-0 match up nov 29. Lou Kid we should tai;gate for that game.

Sharp mother fukker right there.

[gojetsgomoxies]

one devil's advocate question is how much of hawaii's terrible performance vs. BYU had to do with losing their defensive tackles early? nevada has put a ton of points on alot of teams the last few years i think so maybe that performance wasn't that bad.

my real opinion though is that hawaii is terrible and isn't going to recover any time soon. i would take tulane and/or umass over hawaii neutral field i think.

OOPS, WRONG THREAD. sorry