El3m3nt's WS GM 2 Breakdown

[High3rEl3m3nt]

In response to the MoneyShots post--I agree that Madison's off-speed stuff needs to be effective tonight. This means he's got to get ahead of batters and avoid 4-seam counts.

It's hard to analyze both teams' feelings coming in to tonight. I would think that the Giants' hitters are feeling even more in the routine of things and they are continuing to peak at the right time. Baseball is such a streaky game and we have seen in World Series past, that it's all about when the players start to peak.

In regards to Madison, I'm not sure the Giants' win last night, nor their recent success, is going to translate much towards easing his nerves or awareness of his recent struggles. A SP is the loneliest position in professional sports and in my view of things, Madison has as much pressure facing him, if not more, than Fister. The first couple of pitches to the first two batters are going to be VERY telling of how he's going to perform tonight. Also, minus Prince, there's not much of a match-up advantage tonight.

Fister has some pressure too, but he's been strong thus far and the Tigers broke the WS threshold last night and now it's just another game. So hard to come into SF after an extended break and just resume things without missing a beat. Fister has a Randy Johnson-like presence on the mound and I'd be surprised if the Giants opened up on him like they did last night.

Personally, my gut read on this game is that it's a good spot for Detroit. Detroit batters should be able to adapt into the swing of things, pressure is on Madison...more so than Mister Fister (how I see it anyway), and Detroit found out that they can't rely on Valverde at all, which is a godsend for their future BP efforts. I also think it's a low scoring affair, in which Detroit gets a small lead, Fister goes deep into the game, and SF's BP takes over and keeps Detroit in check.

Tonight, I like the Under (-110 7).

Offensive lineups: Neutral--No Adv.
SP pitchers-- Detroit--significant Adv.
BP-- SF--solid advantage

Game winner--Detroit--slight advantage

[pattymayo]

I like it. Nice job son

My initial thought on this game was to bang the Over -- but I'm sure most think the same thing with SF bats hot and most just expect Det to hit

All that makes for a solid under I think

[pokeraddict2012]

im going with SF and momentum along with the OVER i see both teams hitting well tonight against these 2 pitchers but SF with alot more runs

[matt1216]

In response to the MoneyShots post--I agree that Madison's off-speed stuff needs to be effective tonight. This means he's got to get ahead of batters and avoid 4-seam counts.

It's hard to analyze both teams' feelings coming in to tonight. I would think that the Giants' hitters are feeling even more in the routine of things and they are continuing to peak at the right time. Baseball is such a streaky game and we have seen in World Series past, that it's all about when the players start to peak.

In regards to Madison, I'm not sure the Giants' win last night, nor their recent success, is going to translate much towards easing his nerves or awareness of his recent struggles. A SP is the loneliest position in professional sports and in my view of things, Madison has as much pressure facing him, if not more, than Fister. The first couple of pitches to the first two batters are going to be VERY telling of how he's going to perform tonight. Also, minus Prince, there's not much of a match-up advantage tonight.

Fister has some pressure too, but he's been strong thus far and the Tigers broke the WS threshold last night and now it's just another game. So hard to come into SF after an extended break and just resume things without missing a beat. Fister has a Randy Johnson-like presence on the mound and I'd be surprised if the Giants opened up on him like they did last night.

Personally, my gut read on this game is that it's a good spot for Detroit. Detroit batters should be able to adapt into the swing of things, pressure is on Madison...more so than Mister Fister (how I see it anyway), and Detroit found out that they can't rely on Valverde at all, which is a godsend for their future BP efforts. I also think it's a low scoring affair, in which Detroit gets a small lead, Fister goes deep into the game, and SF's BP takes over and keeps Detroit in check.

Tonight, I like the Under (-110 7).

Offensive lineups: Neutral--No Adv.
SP pitchers-- Detroit--significant Adv.
BP-- SF--solid advantage

Game winner--Detroit--slight advantage

how is the offensive advantage nuetral? Det sub par vs lefties plus SF in a hitting groove, its not even close. come on man

[matt1216]

remember there down a reliever here, i think fister gets beat up!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Matt, I appreciate your challenging my analyses. If I can't answer the questions of a poster on narcotics, then my arguments are garbage. By the way, I wish you a speedy recovery.

First, I want to say that I took the Giants last night (RL) and I have the Giants series bet. I refrained from playing a total last night for one of several reasons. First, I don't like the Tigers against soft-tossing pitchers, whether they be right or left-handed. I think the A's, whose starting pitching staff is perfect for Oakland and other pitcher-friendly parks, demonstrated that this kind of style can be effective against the Tigers.

Secondly, last night was a horrible spot for the Tigers' batters and not the easiest position for JV, though who would have guessed that he would have been rocked the way that he did. Baseball is a routine, rhythm, peaks and valleys game, where having an extended off-period interrupts each of these key aspects. There's no replacement for a break during the post-season against the cream of the crop, as the Tigers experienced.

Tonight, Detroit is in a much better spot and it's due to several things. For one, the week long wait to start the WS is over. They have the WS taste in their mouth and can put it behind them. Yes, there's some pressure to not go down 2 games, but I guarantee there was more pressure facing the Tigers club while waiting and waiting for the WS to start and then to travel to SF. Tonight's game fits into the swing of things...they're playing back-to-back and it feels naturally. There's no sitting around and stewing about last night or in the case of sweeping the Yanks, there's no sitting around twiddling your thumbs, wondering who your opponent will be, and all the other what ifs. There's no time to let the mental aspects interrupt the flow of the game, but to just play baseball, which worked huge for SF last night, and will be a benefit to their approach tonight. The difference being is that Detroit gets some of that too. Detroit's offense was also peaking at the right time and I think back-2-back game is exactly what they need tonight.

Finally, Madison is a lefhander, but he's not a soft-tossing lefthander. His fastball is in the mid-to-low 90s and it's in a much better location against left-handed hitters traditionally, than against right handed hitters. As the MoneyShot correctly pointed out, tonigth's game is about the effectiveness of his changeup. However, the changeup's success if tied to the fastball, which has been a struggle for bumgarner in the post season. Again, with my argument, it's more important to assess recent success than season long success and all signs point to a pressure-packed night bumgarner. If this is the case and again, this is just my theory, nerves in the way of throwing the fastball mean pitches tend to be left up and in bad locations. Also, factor in that Bumgarner is very young and that his postseason play up to this point is frong and center stage in his overall experience. The first inning will be huge tonight. Based upon my read of Bumgarner in tonight's spot, I am arguing that the offensive advantage is neutral...meaning the Tigers' hitters are in a much better spot, Bumgarner has lots to prove, and his style matches up better to the Tigers' hitting.

I am not sure where you're getting the Fister will get rocked tonight argument. Fister is a very unique pitcher, 6' 9", grounds out right handed hitter and pops-up left handed hitters. He's been dominant in the post-season and yes, he's facing a hot hitting team, but his stature, release points, are no easy feat to dominate offensively.

Again, I am projecting that Fister goes deep into the game, the Tigers don't have to rely on their BP for a significant amount of innings, the Giants may go to their BP ealier, and in a roundabout way, I think under 7 is a good bet.

As far as tonight's winner, I am leaning Tigers...no bet though. I want SF to win for the sake of my series bet, but I think the Tigers are in a good spot.

[matt1216]

Matt, I appreciate your challenging my analyses. If I can't answer the questions of a poster on narcotics, then my arguments are garbage. By the way, I wish you a speedy recovery.

First, I want to say that I took the Giants last night (RL) and I have the Giants series bet. I refrained from playing a total last night for one of several reasons. First, I don't like the Tigers against soft-tossing pitchers, whether they be right or left-handed. I think the A's, whose starting pitching staff is perfect for Oakland and other pitcher-friendly parks, demonstrated that this kind of style can be effective against the Tigers.

Secondly, last night was a horrible spot for the Tigers' batters and not the easiest position for JV, though who would have guessed that he would have been rocked the way that he did. Baseball is a routine, rhythm, peaks and valleys game, where having an extended off-period interrupts each of these key aspects. There's no replacement for a break during the post-season against the cream of the crop, as the Tigers experienced.

Tonight, Detroit is in a much better spot and it's due to several things. For one, the week long wait to start the WS is over. They have the WS taste in their mouth and can put it behind them. Yes, there's some pressure to not go down 2 games, but I guarantee there was more pressure facing the Tigers club while waiting and waiting for the WS to start and then to travel to SF. Tonight's game fits into the swing of things...they're playing back-to-back and it feels naturally. There's no sitting around and stewing about last night or in the case of sweeping the Yanks, there's no sitting around twiddling your thumbs, wondering who your opponent will be, and all the other what ifs. There's no time to let the mental aspects interrupt the flow of the game, but to just play baseball, which worked huge for SF last night, and will be a benefit to their approach tonight. The difference being is that Detroit gets some of that too. Detroit's offense was also peaking at the right time and I think back-2-back game is exactly what they need tonight.

Finally, Madison is a lefhander, but he's not a soft-tossing lefthander. His fastball is in the mid-to-low 90s and it's in a much better location against left-handed hitters traditionally, than against right handed hitters. As the MoneyShot correctly pointed out, tonigth's game is about the effectiveness of his changeup. However, the changeup's success if tied to the fastball, which has been a struggle for bumgarner in the post season. Again, with my argument, it's more important to assess recent success than season long success and all signs point to a pressure-packed night bumgarner. If this is the case and again, this is just my theory, nerves in the way of throwing the fastball mean pitches tend to be left up and in bad locations. Also, factor in that Bumgarner is very young and that his postseason play up to this point is frong and center stage in his overall experience. The first inning will be huge tonight. Based upon my read of Bumgarner in tonight's spot, I am arguing that the offensive advantage is neutral...meaning the Tigers' hitters are in a much better spot, Bumgarner has lots to prove, and his style matches up better to the Tigers' hitting.

I am not sure where you're getting the Fister will get rocked tonight argument. Fister is a very unique pitcher, 6' 9", grounds out right handed hitter and pops-up left handed hitters. He's been dominant in the post-season and yes, he's facing a hot hitting team, but his stature, release points, are no easy feat to dominate offensively.

Again, I am projecting that Fister goes deep into the game, the Tigers don't have to rely on their BP for a significant amount of innings, the Giants may go to their BP ealier, and in a roundabout way, I think under 7 is a good bet.

As far as tonight's winner, I am leaning Tigers...no bet though. I want SF to win for the sake of my series bet, but I think the Tigers are in a good spot.

fair enough, good reply! my only argument is that SF has continued to hammer everyone on the mound dosnt matter whos pitching. I think the lay off will hurt fister, as he is not in rutine.

thanks for the Wishes! good Write up!

BOL!

[Jago2008]

Yes, element, great write-up. You actually write very well. I have to say this is a great spot for the under too, I do believe momentum is as good as the next starting pitcher, however Detroit is in a position to capitalize, I have no comment for side. I have no bet on this game, so perhaps my opinion is null. But if I were to place a bet on this game it would be the under in this instance.

[MeatWad]

Very good write up and points made. Excellent job!


I think the important thing with Bumgarner is how much he fell off down the stretch pitching. He recently turned 23 and seems like his arm was wearing down the last couple of months of the season. His pitches lacked the sharpness and control. In his last 9 starts he gave up 37 runs 34 ER, including 10 runs in 2 postseason starts.

After his last start, he admitted his control and command were off and it didn't feel right. That said, they gave him extra rest (11 days since last start) and he is a supremely talented guy. Detroit looked pretty horrible against a LH last night who doesn't have near the stuff as Bumgarner does when he is pitching well.

[MeatWad]

Under looking good so far!

[matt1216]

Under looking good so far!

meatwad where u been? i was lookin for you so i could tell you i told you so lmfao! SFM +105 EASY MONEY

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Under easy money too...nice hit Matt.

[matt1216]

Under easy money too...nice hit Matt.

thanks man.... nice hit to u as well!

[MeatWad]

meatwad where u been? i was lookin for you so i could tell you i told you so lmfao! SFM +105 EASY MONEY

I lost my ass the first game, laid off of this one hoping Det would win for my series bet. Did get the under in tonight, but this has been abysmal series for me so far.

Wondering which Bumgarner would show. I sensed he needed the extra days rest and the 11 day break served him well. After struggling against Zito's mediocre stuff, I didn't expect Det to do much vs a better LH tonight.

[matt1216]

I lost my ass the first game, laid off of this one hoping Det would win for my series bet. Did get the under in tonight, but this has been abysmal series for me so far.

Wondering which Bumgarner would show. I sensed he needed the extra days rest and the 11 day break served him well. After struggling against Zito's mediocre stuff, I didn't expect Det to do much vs a better LH tonight.

its all good man, glad u hit he under!!!!! Det horrid vs lefties just rmember that