Harbaugh made the right call

[Duff85]

Probability theory mfkers. Some of you need to learn it.

By declining the penalty and taking a knee the 49ers are almost 100% to win the game. By leaving it open to an onside kick recovery they are a lot less than that.

You would think that as gamblers you would have a good handle on that.

[MoneyLineDawg]

Exactly......Plus what happens if one of his tired defenders blows out a knee when he could have just ended the game

[rm18]

It is pretty close they have over a 99.999% chance to win with either decision though I think it is slightly better to take the points off the board but also taking the 2 points away could hurt you in a playoff tiebreaker theoretically as well.

[tatddy]

6 in 1 hand....half dozen in the other. The whole play was questionable. Bunch of whiny gamblers who were on the wrong side the entire game complaining about almost amazingly covering and then not. Guys don't get it. Nothing wrong with what Jim did. Yes, I was on 49ers ml but that's irrelevant.

[MoneyLineDawg]

It is pretty close they have over a 99.999% chance to win with either decision though I think it is slightly better to take the points off the board but also taking the 2 points away could hurt you in a playoff tiebreaker theoretically as well.

Bottomline, take the kneel, the win, and get outta there with your player health

Agree with your post, but its an easy decision for non-degens

[onacloud]

Tiebreaker comes down to points... how was that the right call?

9 point lead and ball back...

Oh well I had -7 so a push sucked for that minute where I thought it cashed lol

[the_orangekat]

Either way, they win. With no time outs and needing 2 on sides kicks in 45 secs to win, you really think the game was in doubt and he should have declined the safety. It was all about the cover. You sound like someone trying to justify why they voted for Obama in 2008.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

of course it's the smart decision. only people complaining about it are the sf backers that got a bad line.

[tarheelfan72]

deleted

[tarheelfan72]

Either way, they win. With no time outs and needing 2 on sides kicks in 45 secs to win, you really think the game was in doubt and he should have declined the safety. It was all about the cover. You sound like someone trying to justify why they voted for Obama in 2008.

All about the cover? He screwed everyone in his own town? He had a bet on Seattle?

I'll bet all my SBR points you work hard labor.

[mcduggly]

I did not have the 49ers, but how is that the right decision you idiots? There was under a minute left, they would have been up by NINE points, and would be getting the ball back. Even if they onside it, they would need 2 scores IF they recovered, and needed another onside kick after the first score. I think it was a stupid call (especially for those that had the 49ers haha), but oh well. A win is a win.

[mcduggly]

Either way, they win. With no time outs and needing 2 on sides kicks in 45 secs to win, you really think the game was in doubt and he should have declined the safety. It was all about the cover. You sound like someone trying to justify why they voted for Obama in 2008.

[antifoil]

9 points makes it a two possession game so it really didn't matter either way.

if it had been 8 points are less then declining would have been the absolute right decision.

[onlooker]

Correct decision by Harbaugh.

[gh0zt]

I agree with the OP. Game was over by declining. No reason to have the defense out longer than needed.

[SteveRyan]

The decision is ridiculous and doesn't prevent anything.

Lets just suppose that Harbaugh accepted the safety. Then, Seattle is short of the 1st down ANYWAY so San Fran gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over.

Now, let just suppose that Harbaugh accepts the safety and that somehow the ref's rule Seattle a 1st down. Seattle is now down by 9 points.

Furthermore, lets also assume that because Seattle now has a 1st down that they somehow manage to score a TD AND A 2 POINT CONVERSION.

Seattle is still down by 1 point. (14-15)

On top of all this, let's fantasize that Seattle than miraculously recovers an onside kick and achieves a field goal that gives Seattle the win of 17-15.

Does Harbaughs decision to TAKE THE OPTION prevent any of this???

NO.

If Harbaugh declined the safety AND somehow Seattle achieved the 1st down, they would be in the same situation.

Seattle could win the game either way, regardless of how unlikely.

[vaas187]

http://www.thescore.com/buzz/articles/362740-harbaugh-s-int-reaction

[CDMKMP]

The decision is ridiculous and doesn't prevent anything.

Lets just suppose that Harbaugh accepted the safety. Then, Seattle is short of the 1st down ANYWAY so San Fran gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over.

Now, let just suppose that Harbaugh accepts the safety and that somehow the ref's rule Seattle a 1st down. Seattle is now down by 9 points.

Furthermore, lets also assume that because Seattle now has a 1st down that they somehow manage to score a TD AND A 2 POINT CONVERSION.

Seattle is still down by 1 point. (14-15)

On top of all this, let's fantasize that Seattle than miraculously recovers an onside kick and achieves a field goal that gives Seattle the win of 17-15.

Does Harbaughs decision to TAKE THE OPTION prevent any of this???

NO.

If Harbaugh declined the safety AND somehow Seattle achieved the 1st down, they would be in the same situation.

Seattle could win the game either way, regardless of how unlikely.

You literally don't know how safeties work which is sad.

[CDMKMP]

I did not have the 49ers, but how is that the right decision you idiots? There was under a minute left, they would have been up by NINE points, and would be getting the ball back. Even if they onside it, they would need 2 scores IF they recovered, and needed another onside kick after the first score. I think it was a stupid call (especially for those that had the 49ers haha), but oh well. A win is a win.

I normally like your posts on here but you are wrong which makes it funny that you're calling people idiots.

Harbaugh can decline the safety, kneel the ball, and win with close to 100% probability, with no risk to his players.

If he accepts the safety, he is now up by two scores. Seattle can onside kick, and onside kicks in the NFL (when the opposing team knows they're coming) are roughly 20% to succeed. I have no clue what the stats are for a post-safety onside kick though. Either way, it creates not insignificant chance that Seattle gets the ball. Big deal right, they're still down by two scores? Well now the defense has to trot out for potentially a whole series of plays, even if the outcome is all but decided. Worst case your guys get hurt when the game could already be over, or Seattle could miraculously score and force another onside (with another roughly 20% chance to get it.)

So even if Seattle's chance to overcome a 9pt deficit is .0001%, the chance of them winning if San Francisco declines and kneels the ball is higher, no matter how marginally. AND he doesn't have to risk any more non-kneel-down plays at all.

And don't give me this shit about how points matter in the end of year tiebreakers. They are at least the 8th level of tiebreaker criteria, so there is almost no chance of it ever coming down to it anyway, let alone for 2pts. Even more so compared to the chance of players getting injured on plays they don't have to be out there for.

You have to think about it like a coach, not a gambler. Taking points off the board wins the game immediately, end of story. WTF does Harbaugh care if he wins by 9 or by 7.

[SteveRyan]

You literally don't know how safeties work which is sad.

Harbaugh is given the option.

If Seattle gets the 1st down, he make take the safety.

If Seattle is short of the 1st down, San Fran gets the ball.

[rm18]

I normally like your posts on here but you are wrong which makes it funny that you're calling people idiots.

Harbaugh can decline the safety, kneel the ball, and win with close to 100% probability, with no risk to his players.

If he accepts the safety, he is now up by two scores. Seattle can onside kick, and onside kicks in the NFL (when the opposing team knows they're coming) are roughly 20% to succeed. I have no clue what the stats are for a post-safety onside kick though. Either way, it creates not insignificant chance that Seattle gets the ball. Big deal right, they're still down by two scores? Well now the defense has to trot out for potentially a whole series of plays, even if the outcome is all but decided. Worst case your guys get hurt when the game could already be over, or Seattle could miraculously score and force another onside (with another roughly 20% chance to get it.)

So even if Seattle's chance to overcome a 9pt deficit is .0001%, the chance of them winning if San Francisco declines and kneels the ball is higher, no matter how marginally. AND he doesn't have to risk any more non-kneel-down plays at all.

And don't give me this shit about how points matter in the end of year tiebreakers. They are at least the 8th level of tiebreaker criteria, so there is almost no chance of it ever coming down to it anyway, let alone for 2pts. Even more so compared to the chance of players getting injured on plays they don't have to be out there for.

You have to think about it like a coach, not a gambler. Taking points off the board wins the game immediately, end of story. WTF does Harbaugh care if he wins by 9 or by 7.

[No coincidences]

Rivers.

[CDMKMP]

Sweet bro, one isolated incident. Care to offer percentages on how likely that is?

Cuz I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Seattle recovering an onside is a lot higher, and it forces you to defend plays that you could have avoided all together.

[CDMKMP]

Oh and even if he fumbles it on the kneel down Seattle will have to go further to score. So there you go.

[Mriceyman]

Right call.. why send out punt team wen anything can hAppen

[iceminers26]

Thanks NC, posted in the other thread not like Harbaugh has Rivers under center and now I actually had to see it again.... that game hurt but did more good for the future....fade the Chargers on primetime was the learning experience that night, they are cursed.

[CDMKMP]

Obviously Harbaugh isn't analyzing this based on minuscule percentages that could tip the scales. He's just using common sense to say "I can kneel the ball here and end the game with no more plays." He can safely assume a botched kneel down isn't very likely. And it doesn't matter how unlikely it is for Seattle to score twice, why even try to defend them against it?

[rm18]

Oh and even if he fumbles it on the kneel down Seattle will have to go further to score. So there you go.

I know but they have to score twice the question is not which one gives them the best chance to avoid a score it is what gives them the best chance to win a Superbowl

[CDMKMP]

God I wish you guys would realize how freaking unlikely it is for TWO POINTS to ever matter IF it goes to end of season tiebreaker:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_playoffs#Breaking_ties

There's a better chance of Seattle scoring twice and winning this game.

[falconticket]

The decision is ridiculous and doesn't prevent anything.

Lets just suppose that Harbaugh accepted the safety. Then, Seattle is short of the 1st down ANYWAY so San Fran gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over.

Now, let just suppose that Harbaugh accepts the safety and that somehow the ref's rule Seattle a 1st down. Seattle is now down by 9 points.

Furthermore, lets also assume that because Seattle now has a 1st down that they somehow manage to score a TD AND A 2 POINT CONVERSION.

Seattle is still down by 1 point. (14-15)

On top of all this, let's fantasize that Seattle than miraculously recovers an onside kick and achieves a field goal that gives Seattle the win of 17-15.

Does Harbaughs decision to TAKE THE OPTION prevent any of this???

NO.

If Harbaugh declined the safety AND somehow Seattle achieved the 1st down, they would be in the same situation.

Seattle could win the game either way, regardless of how unlikely.

Huh. If sf accepts the safety then Seattle has to kick. What rules are you using here.

[rm18]

God I wish you guys would realize how freaking unlikely it is for TWO POINTS to ever matter IF it goes to end of season tiebreaker:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_playoffs#Breaking_ties

There's a better chance of Seattle scoring twice and winning this game.

Probably but the chance of Smith fumbling is not 0, I'm just saying the tiebreaker is part of the formula when the Seahawks are over a 100000/1 shot either way.

[JimmyG_415]

The decision is ridiculous and doesn't prevent anything.

Lets just suppose that Harbaugh accepted the safety. Then, Seattle is short of the 1st down ANYWAY so San Fran gets the ball and takes a knee. Game over.

Now, let just suppose that Harbaugh accepts the safety and that somehow the ref's rule Seattle a 1st down. Seattle is now down by 9 points.

Furthermore, lets also assume that because Seattle now has a 1st down that they somehow manage to score a TD AND A 2 POINT CONVERSION.

Seattle is still down by 1 point. (14-15)

On top of all this, let's fantasize that Seattle than miraculously recovers an onside kick and achieves a field goal that gives Seattle the win of 17-15.

Does Harbaughs decision to TAKE THE OPTION prevent any of this???

NO.

If Harbaugh declined the safety AND somehow Seattle achieved the 1st down, they would be in the same situation.

Seattle could win the game either way, regardless of how unlikely.

??????????? That isn't how a safety works.

[natepdx33]

You know nothing about football

Probability theory mfkers. Some of you need to learn it.

By declining the penalty and taking a knee the 49ers are almost 100% to win the game. By leaving it open to an onside kick recovery they are a lot less than that.

You would think that as gamblers you would have a good handle on that.

You can't onside kick on a punt you idiot!

[natepdx33]

Seattle would have to punt so they can't onside kick!

[onlooker]

You can't onside kick on a punt you idiot!

Seattle would have to punt so they can't onside kick!

It's actually a "free kick" and they can onside kick it.