The Play: Ul Lafayette vs. North Texas

[marcojuiceman]

-3 1/2 UL Lafayette

Cajun Back Up QB>>> Cajuns Terrance Broadway completing 45-of-77 passes for 612 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception

The Write Up:
The first thing to look at is how efficient each team is when it comes to total yards and average scoring. North Texas averages 380 yards of offense each game, but only has an average score of 19.5. This means they are below average offensively and do not see the end zone very often. On the other hand, UL-Lafayette is at the median of college football YPG (yards per game), averaging 31 more than UNT, but they average twice as many points, at 38 a game. This means ULL is far more efficient at reaching the end zone than North Texas. Not only are they more efficient, but ULL averages 5.0 YPR (yards per run) while UNT gives up 5.2 YPR, which means the Ragin Cajuns will win the battle in the trenches and keep the pressure off their quarterback. Another factor to look at is turnovers. While both teams are on the positive side of turnovers this season, North Texas is only at +4, while UL-Lafayette is at +8. Once again, an underlooked statistic that ULL is twice as good as UNT in. While being evenly matched on paper, UL-Lafayette outscores their opponents on average 38-24, while UNT is outscored by their opponents on average 19-26. Also, ULL has won five years in a row against UNT, including three in a row in Denton, so home field advantage is a non-issue here.

While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points, a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.

ADDED SMALL BONUS; CAJUNS OVER 30pts for TEAM TOTAL

[BIGDAY]

Agreed. Easy Money IMO.

[Justin3587]

-3 1/2 UL Lafayette

Cajun Back Up QB>>> Cajuns Terrance Broadway completing 45-of-77 passes for 612 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception

The Write Up:
The first thing to look at is how efficient each team is when it comes to total yards and average scoring. North Texas averages 380 yards of offense each game, but only has an average score of 19.5. This means they are below average offensively and do not see the end zone very often. On the other hand, UL-Lafayette is at the median of college football YPG (yards per game), averaging 31 more than UNT, but they average twice as many points, at 38 a game. This means ULL is far more efficient at reaching the end zone than North Texas. Not only are they more efficient, but ULL averages 5.0 YPR (yards per run) while UNT gives up 5.2 YPR, which means the Ragin Cajuns will win the battle in the trenches and keep the pressure off their quarterback. Another factor to look at is turnovers. While both teams are on the positive side of turnovers this season, North Texas is only at +4, while UL-Lafayette is at +8. Once again, an underlooked statistic that ULL is twice as good as UNT in. While being evenly matched on paper, UL-Lafayette outscores their opponents on average 38-24, while UNT is outscored by their opponents on average 19-26. Also, ULL has won five years in a row against UNT, including three in a row in Denton, so home field advantage is a non-issue here.

While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points, a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.

I have from a pretty good source that 69% of the public is on ULL

[Louisvillekid1]

GL .

[paranoyd androyd]

broadway is better than their starter

[thedeuceisloose]

Agreed completely.

From admitted WVU over Tech loser

[bigdaddyjames]

i was going to take the over on this game .... what do tou think about the over 56 1/2 ????

[mynameismud]

nice write up guy. im on the same side. glgl

[Stompin_Tom]

ULL at -5 now

[turbozed]

You have to factor in opposing team defense into the total yardage of North Texas. North Texas played LSU and Kansas State. That will lower their offensive numbers significantly as both ULL and NT are one or several classes below those types of teams.

North Texas has a decently accurate QB and ULL has poor pass defense even against bad competition. North Texas's run defense and tackling is piss poor so I wouldn't trust them to keep ULL off the scoreboard either.

I'm on the over at 55.5. Good luck to you.

[isotopes]

I like the write up and I'm not knocking you, however, 85% of all bets are on ULL tonight and the line has moved against them from +4 to +3.5 back up to +4 again. This signals that the sharp money would actually be on North Texas. Just pointing that out.

[ShogunRua]

While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points, a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.

Just wanted to clear something up here. The reasons/analysis you mentioned to take ULL in this thread have all been pretty straight forward things that the average Joe looks at when deciding to take a side. All the obvious numbers/angles all point to a play on ULL here. Maybe I'm mistaken and you meant for readers to look at some other angles not mentioned (the write up doesn't suggest this however), but the 'factors' you've mentioned in your post are far from info the 'sharp bettor' puts too much weight into. I don't mean to be rude or anything, but the statistics you've thrown out in this thread are for the most part pretty useless.

Good luck on everyone's plays regardless. I've never had a good feel for these Tuesday/Wednesday crap conference games.

[sunzal]

You're analysis about the yards per game not matching the scoring is WAY OFF....the fact that N. Texas get's almost as many yards but half the points is only evidence that there will be regression to the mean....as many on this site know, just like actual WHIP is a better prediction of future runs scored in baseball than past runs scored, in football, yards per play is a better prediction of future points than passed points.....While I really liked ULL in this game, let's face it, the fact that this line is still only 4 while everyone and their mother istrying to make up for their weekend loses on this game makes me want to lay off it....good luck, I hope ULL hits, but be careful using such simple stats as points per game to make predictions....if it were that easy, we'd all be winning

[sunzal]

exactly

[sunzal]

and the fact that you think the public takes home teams in this mid-week games is a fantasy....over the past 4 or 5 years, since these mid-week small conference games have become an ESPN constant (for us bettors of course), the favorites are taken at some ridiculous percentage.....no one takes the dogs in these small conference high-octane offensive games...."the public thinks their equal and takes the home dog"? huh??? where are you getting this idea?

[sitzlejd]

Rather than picking a side, how does everyone feel about the total? First glance tells me to take the over. Thoughts?

[marcojuiceman]

"the public thinks their equal and takes the home dog"? huh??? where are you getting this idea?

Its a No -Brainer In the Betting World.. Very little bettors and spectators pay attention to those small conferences, it doesnt take a rocket science to figure that out.. Ask anyone have they even watch some of these small conference games and 70% of the time the answer is NO

[Dfjay9]

You're <> your

And

Their <> they're <> there

[ChicagoMafia]

As best put by Briana Fantana of Anchorman..

"They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time"

[sunzal]

You're <> your

And

Their <> they're <> there

yeah, YOU ARE (you're) right...that was lazy of me....at least i wasn't one of those schmucks who comes on a sportsbetting sight and writes "loosers"

[sunzal]

uhhhh...site

[sunzal]

Its a No -Brainer In the Betting World.. Very little bettors and spectators pay attention to those small conferences, it doesnt take a rocket science to figure that out.. Ask anyone have they even watch some of these small conference games and 70% of the time the answer is NO

I KNOW...that was my point....this 70% of the public that doesn't know anything about the teams don't play the dog....they play the favorites...even more so on these mid-week games...

[sunzal]

That all being said, I still think I may take ULL....I'm trying to convince myself not too....it just looks way to easy on paper, and "way too easy" is a problem in the betting world....in other words, the smart play is probably a no play...but addicts like us hanging around a betting forum on a Tuesday afternoon, we play when we shouldn't right? so if i'm gonna play when i shouldn't, the smart thing would be to fade the public....no doubt....and still, knowing all this, my money will end up on ULL...damn it

[Pete0]

nice write up marco !

Good luck

[testertips]

i'm such a degenerate playing this shitty game. a minimum parlay on n. texas +4.5 and under 56.5. goodluck...

[marcojuiceman]

That all being said, I still think I may take ULL....I'm trying to convince myself not too....it just looks way to easy on paper, and "way too easy" is a problem in the betting world....in other words, the smart play is probably a no play...but addicts like us hanging around a betting forum on a Tuesday afternoon, we play when we shouldn't right? so if i'm gonna play when i shouldn't, the smart thing would be to fade the public....no doubt....and still, knowing all this, my money will end up on ULL...damn it

I know its a Addiction whats the number to GA we all need Help

[marcojuiceman]

Spread is at 5 1/2 now WOW Big Jump

[testertips]

i feel like this line is going to get pounded down right before kick-off

[testertips]

if you can get 5.5 now i think that's a good number for n. texas

[turbozed]

Let's face it. There's no "public" for this game. There's only a population of degens who are looking for a chance to bet and base their decision on cursory examinations or are following some other degen.

Has anyone even watched these two teams play?

[House]

I like the write up and I'm not knocking you, however, 85% of all bets are on ULL tonight and the line has moved against them from +4 to +3.5 back up to +4 again. This signals that the sharp money would actually be on North Texas. Just pointing that out.

[PorkChop]

Former University of Houston Qb. Talented.

[ermzzy]

i wouldnt bet the spread, go with the UNDER. texas can win SU

[Mac4Lyfe]

The only reason everyone is betting this game is because it's the only game in town.

Most people don't even have a clue what cities UL Laf and N Texas are in??? Hell some folks probably don't even know what states these colleges are in. lol

[ermzzy]

The only reason everyone is betting this game is because it's the only game in town.

Most people don't even have a clue what cities UL Laf and N Texas are in??? Hell some folks probably don't even know what states these colleges are in. lol

hahahaha that 100% true know where txas is but not UL LAF without googling