Chiefs should go for 2 here

[rm18]

How do you know 14 pt dogs do not win 60% in OT? I don't even recall any 14 pt dogs forcing OT in recent years. Do you?

Then why isn't KC +200 in OVERTIME after winning the coin toss?

1.because it is unknown who gets the ball first with this line. The line goes off the board before a coin toss.

2. OT strategy is different because you are playing to score not to get a TD. The chance of a turnover or going on 4th and short in FG range is not there which benefits the dog.

[daggerkobe]

But guys the point is.....original lines in a game dont have anything to do with what will happen come OT....An original line of -14 assumes that the Chargers are far superior to the Chiefs, which was obviously proven to be false....So to say that since the Chargers were originally favored by 14 means they have a better chance to win in overtime is just flat out false.

The fact is that throughout 4 quarters of football two things were proven 1)The chiefs are better than people thought and 2)the chargers are worse than people thought....You cannot revert back to that original 14 point line after it has since been proven that the chargers are nowhere near that much better than the chiefs

Exactly.

Spreads have nothing to do with who will win. It has everything to do with what will get 50/50 action.

I remember the Rams - Patriots Super Bowl where Rams opened as 3 TD favorites. It was obviously a terrible line because it was bet down to 14 and would've gone to 7 had the casinos not held the line. It was one of few Superbowls where Vegas LOST money. Same with last season's Super Bowl where all the money was on the Giants.... cost Vegas a record amount of money in losses.

If SD played KC again next week, the spread won't be 14 again.

[rm18]

I do not recall 14 point dogs in OT off hand, but I have seen plenty of regulation action with big spreads, and if a team is a 14 point dog the favorite usually has almost 2/3 scoring drives.

[daggerkobe]

1.because it is unknown who gets the ball first with this line. The line goes off the board before a coin toss.

2. OT strategy is different because you are playing to score not to get a TD. The chance of a turnover or going on 4th and short in FG range is not there which benefits the dog.

So what you're saying is that winning the coin toss significantly effects your line and that strategy in OT is different than regulation.

Exactly. Which is why 6 of 9 OT winners this season won the coin toss.