KC was 1-7. Why not go for 2? And my God San Diego is horrible.
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There's been 9 OT games this season.... 4 was won outright by dogs.
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actually Don Juan closing NFL spreads can be off by 14 points....They were off by 13 points in this game in particular..
You see the NFL spread that high does not mean that the Chargers are sooooooo much better than the chiefs. It means that there are enough morons out there that think that to be true (like yourself)....
The Chiefs have played drasitcally better as of late, and the Chargers have played poorly all season long. The line was a joke, and anyone with a brain profited from itComment -
Feel free to explain why, when in a tied game at halftime, the favorite is favored for the 2nd half.Don Juan the point is that if the game goes to OT the teams played pretty evenly throughout the entire game.....you are the one assuming that out of nowhere the "better" team will suddenly start outplaying the "inferior" team.
Because it was a decision based on percentages. If the chance of making the 2pt conversion > the chance of making the extra point times the chance of winning in OT, then you go for 2. It's not difficult.Please tell me Don Juan how an analogy using a college football OT game, compares when discussing an NFL game.
Dont talk to me like I'm the idiot. You sir are the one making all these drastic ignorant assumptions, and using analogys that do not fitComment -
Yeah, you have no clue.actually Don Juan closing NFL spreads can be off by 14 points....They were off by 13 points in this game in particular..
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Players don't compete for 60 minutes, playing even, then suddenly realize in OT that they are DD dogs so therefore lay down.
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You are taking a general statistic and trying to apply it to a specific instance or population. This doesn't work. Home teams win more games than away teams in the NFL. That doesn't mean that every team that plays at home is a favorite to win. DUCY?Listen.... I already posted a FACT that disproves what you are saying.
From the 2000 through 2007 regular seasons, there have been 124 overtime games. In every single game except one (I believe), the team that won the toss elected to receive. And those receiving teams won 60% of the time (and tied once). That's a relatively large advantage, particularly when compared to home field advantage.
You can continue to disagree with it or not, it's up to you. But my position is backed up with facts.Comment -
Players don't compete for 60 minutes, playing even, then suddenly realize in OT that they are DD dogs so therefore lay down.
I'll bet you're really crushing all those NFL 2H lines for double digit dogs who are tied at halftime since they are always big dogs for the second half.Comment -
Feel free to explain why, when in a tied game at halftime, the favorite is favored for the 2nd half.
Tell us again why there's no line offered for OVERTIME?
If there was, would SD still be favored had Chiefs won the coin toss and received the ball?
Of course NOT.Comment -
you didnt post the rest of that quote donjuan, so you misquoted me to make yourself feel better....That's fine. But the fact of the matter is that San Diego is not much better than Kansas City at this point, and I have seen nothing, nor have you shown me anything the change that fact....
Secondly if a game is tied at halftime, the team that was originally favored will be favored for the 2nd half because if they werent the casino would not get even action..
You obviously have no idea how this whole thing works...Just because a team is favored does not make them better, it means that is where the line is set to get equal action....
YOURE AN IDIOT
You can't use NFL lines to try to prove that one team is better than the next....That's like using the BCS polls to "prove" which CFB team is better.....Comment -
This proves nothing about what a 14 point dog will do. Teams that get the opening kickoff of a game win 50%, but 14+ dogs win less than 10%.Originally posted by daggerkobe
You could of found Chiefs at over +200 to score first for the game and OT is a similiar spot, although the Chiefs would have a higher chance of scoring first in OT than the game.
Home teams winning 51% I believe is somewhat of an aberration, just like how a winning bettor can lose over a 124 game stretch.Comment -
bookmaker has lines and the Chargers would of been significant favorites. Probably -160/+140Originally posted by daggerkobeFeel free to explain why, when in a tied game at halftime, the favorite is favored for the 2nd half.
Tell us again why there's no line offered for OVERTIME?
If there was, would SD still be favored had Chiefs won the coin toss and received the ball?
Of course NOT.Comment -
not if the Chiefs had wont the toss rm18 which is daggerkobe's pointComment -
Chiefs toss -160/+140Originally posted by Dbldown11
Chargers toss -240/+200Comment -
Originally posted by donjuan
It's not general statistic. It's OVERTIME specific.
60% of teams that won the COIN TOSS won the game. Just goes to show how important the coin toss is in NFL overtime. It neutralizes home field, "better team", pt spread.... whatever.
Out of 9 overtime games this season, 4 have been won by DOGS. How do you explain that the fav didn't go a perfect 9-0 but almost 50/50?
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So now the coin flip for overtime had already determined the Chiefs would receive the ball before regulation ended? LOL.Tell us again why there's no line offered for OVERTIME?
If there was, would SD still be favored had Chiefs won the coin toss and received the ball?
Of course NOT.Comment -
Originally posted by rm18
OK, now you're just being ridiculous.
If the Chiefs were at midfield in OT, would you still make the Chargers the fav?Comment -
my stats say Giants win over 90% of road games in the last year, that is specific, look what is going to happen tonight.Originally posted by daggerkobeIt's not general statistic. It's OVERTIME specific.
60% of teams that won the COIN TOSS won the game. Just goes to show how important the coin toss is in NFL overtime. It neutralizes home field, "better team", pt spread.... whatever.
Out of 9 overtime games this season, 4 have been won by DOGS. How do you explain that the fav didn't go a perfect 9-0 but almost 50/50?Comment -
if you actually believe that the chargers would have been -160 had the chiefs won the toss then you are being ridiculous RMComment -
Originally posted by donjuan
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It's a general statistic for overtime. Just like home teams winning more often is a general statistic for football games. You can't apply that to a specific case, especially a game with a 14 point fav.It's not general statistic. It's OVERTIME specific.
60% of teams that won the COIN TOSS won the game. Just goes to show how important the coin toss is in NFL overtime. It neutralizes home field, "better team", pt spread.... whatever.
Um, was that supposed to be serious?Out of 9 overtime games this season, 4 have been won by DOGS. How do you explain that the fav didn't go a perfect 9-0 but almost 50/50?
1. Nice sample size.
2. Because no one said the fav was 100%? My original assertion was that it was somewhere between 35% and 50% that the Chiefs would win in OT. 4/9=44.4%, which happens to be between 35% and 50%.
3. 44.4%<45%, so even by your logic the Chiefs should have gone for 2 and that's before you even consider that the XP is not a 100% chance.Comment -
What does that have to do with 124 games played over 7 years?Originally posted by rm18
Are you saying that winning the OT coin toss doesn't give the team an advantage?
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It moves them from about 35% chance to about 42%.Originally posted by daggerkobeWhat does that have to do with 124 games played over 7 years?
Are you saying that winning the OT coin toss doesn't give the team an advantage?Comment -
home teams win over 60% in the history of football, that did nothing to help the Raiders todayComment -
Originally posted by rm18
It did help the other 6 home teams.
But then we're not talking about venues. We're talking about COIN FLIPS in OT. 60% of the coin flip winners win the game in OT.
Winning the coin flip >>>>>>>>>> venue >>>>>>>>> pt spread.
You avoiding the question speaks volumes.Comment -
So then you must be absolutely crushing the books for halftime bets. I mean, you'd be ridiculously rich if this was true. So you must be really, really rich off of sports betting right?you didnt post the rest of that quote donjuan, so you misquoted me to make yourself feel better....That's fine. But the fact of the matter is that San Diego is not much better than Kansas City at this point, and I have seen nothing, nor have you shown me anything the change that fact....
Secondly if a game is tied at halftime, the team that was originally favored will be favored for the 2nd half because if they werent the casino would not get even action..
If all they care about is equal action, why are winners limited and banned?You obviously have no idea how this whole thing works...Just because a team is favored does not make them better, it means that is where the line is set to get equal action....
The sports betting market is not comparable to a contrived ranking system.You can't use NFL lines to try to prove that one team is better than the next....That's like using the BCS polls to "prove" which CFB team is better.....Comment -
what donjuan? you've just proved you're an idiot. all casinos care about IS equal action on each side....that's how they make money. Winning sports bettors are banned because it costs them money. But they move lines based on the action each side...
And what about my post regarding halftime lines had anything to do with me betting them??????It said that the original favorite would be the favorite in a tie game at halftime because if they werent there would not be even action.....that has nothing to do with gambling or which side is right....
and also you are right with this:"If the chance of making the 2pt conversion > the chance of making the extra point times the chance of winning in OT, then you go for 2. It's not difficult."
IF NFL GAMES WERE A ****ING MATH PROBLEM.....BUT THEY ARENT.Comment -
Originally posted by donjuan
6 of 9 overtime games this season were won by the team that won the COIN FLIP. 6/9= 67%.
Let me ask you this..... let's say you flip a quarter 1000 times.... 650 times it comes up heads. What do you estimate the odds to be that it'll come up heads on the next flip?Comment -
Thanks for completely ignoring everything in my post and coming up with a question that is close to irrelevant.6 of 9 overtime games this season were won by the team that won the COIN FLIP. 6/9= 67%.
Let me ask you this..... let's say you flip a quarter 1000 times.... 650 times it comes up heads. What do you estimate the odds to be that it'll come up heads on the next flip?Comment -
60% of home teams win. 60% of OT coin toss winners winOriginally posted by daggerkobe
But 10 point home dogs do not win 60% and 14 point dogs do not win 60% in OT, why can't you understand this?
I already explained how this is a very similiar spot to who will score first in the game where KC is about a +200 dogComment -
Humor me.Originally posted by donjuanComment -
But guys the point is.....original lines in a game dont have anything to do with what will happen come OT....An original line of -14 assumes that the Chargers are far superior to the Chiefs, which was obviously proven to be false....So to say that since the Chargers were originally favored by 14 means they have a better chance to win in overtime is just flat out false.
The fact is that throughout 4 quarters of football two things were proven 1)The chiefs are better than people thought and 2)the chargers are worse than people thought....You cannot revert back to that original 14 point line after it has since been proven that the chargers are nowhere near that much better than the chiefsComment -
The only thing proven is that you either didn't read the link I provided or still fail to understand the concept of statistical dispersion. Hint: 8 games of evidence > 1 game of evidence.But guys the point is.....original lines in a game dont have anything to do with what will happen come OT....An original line of -14 assumes that the Chargers are far superior to the Chiefs, which was obviously proven to be false....So to say that since the Chargers were originally favored by 14 means they have a better chance to win in overtime is just flat out false.
The fact is that throughout 4 quarters of football two things were proven 1)The chiefs are better than people thought and 2)the chargers are worse than people thought....You cannot revert back to that original 14 point line after it has since been proven that the chargers are nowhere near that much better than the chiefsComment -
It means little, do you remember the year when Bills beat NE 31-0 first game of the year and NE beat Bills 31-0 the last game of the year?Originally posted by Dbldown11Comment -
Originally posted by rm18
How do you know 14 pt dogs do not win 60% in OT? I don't even recall any 14 pt dogs forcing OT in recent years. Do you?
Then why isn't KC +200 in OVERTIME after winning the coin toss?
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