UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje (May 09, 2020) : Nominated Post

[Enfuego]

Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=29428112'>posted</a> on 05/05/2020:

Tony broke Cerrone's nose early in the 2nd round. The late punch contributed to Cowboy's damage, but Cowboy had nothing for Tony at that point in the fight.

Tony was starting to outstrike RDA before the eyepoke already.

The Barboza upkick IMO, wasn't a huge factor in the fight. Barboza obviously doesn't like pressure and it was already starting to overwhelm him and was only going to get worse as time goes by.

Gaethje KO'ing Ferguson is obvious one of the main possibilities of the fight, but people are overestimating it's likelihood since Gaethje has a string of 3 KO's and because we've seen Tony dropped a few times in 15 UFC fights. UFC average KO rate is 26% at lightweight. If you want to get Justin KO above 50%, you'd have to say that he's become such a crazy finisher, that he's 4 times as likely to KO a guy who's never been finished in 15 UFC fights than average. Tony's age will come into play, of course, but the base rates say indicate that it's more likely to get to later rounds where Tony will have the advantage.

At the same time, you can make caveats on Gaethje's last 3 KO's. Barboza was eye poked right before the KO, and Cowboy and Vick have been on a streak of getting kO'd, both looking terrible. There are signs that Gaethje has changed around his game somewhat, but it's hard to say that since we've only seen a few minutes of him in his last few fights. There's also a chance he might be essentially the same guy that eats a lot of shots and slows down halfway through a 3 rounder. If that's the case, then he needs an early KO (he isn't going to be subbing Tony). If that's the case, he might just have a puncher's chance.

Not to mention Tony's chin is well above average.