Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27094064'>posted</a> on 07/19/2017:

Tonight’s game is the first game we’ve seen where both teams have played four games. The market becomes a bit more mature from here and I think it shows in some of the numbers. The sharp forecast shows Ottawa winning with 24 or 25 points to Montreal’s 20 points.

The line opened with Ottawa -3.5 with a Total of 50.5 and both lines have moved toward the forecast. The market is getting more mature. Fortunately, the sharp forecast is dynamic and will adjust accordingly.

We’ve seen the Total rise here of late and that may have something to do with the stacking forecast yielding a 27-27 tie, with Ottawa getting a slight moneyline edge, for a 54 point game.

With the non-predictive public gauge giving Ottawa a three point win as well, Ottawa is under some pressure again. Remember, last week they didn’t completely fold as they spoiled the favorite with a backdoor splash.

This is our first issue with a market involving more sophisticated decision makers and it’s difficult to judge the flow of money for the week. On top of that, there are 5 games played in 6 days, with Ottawa playing both tonight and Monday. I have an idea about where this week is headed in terms of the flow of money, but we are still missing some information.

There are thorny vines all around in this spot. The tightness of the line, on one hand, shows what a gamble the game may be. On the other hand, what better way to pay out the eventual Ottawa moneyline than by intentionally putting more influential money on the sidelines?

Regardless, last year’s double digit upset champion is getting more than its share of money placed and bets taken on the moneyline and will continue to do so until they pop their cherry.

It’s a world of give and take, and the rotation can have a real big picture in mind.