So here is the final tally for November. At his release lines, RAS finishes the month +14.4 units, +10.4 on sides and +4.0 on totals. If you're tailing and getting the closing lines you would have ended the month -8.8 units, -0.2 on sides and -8.6 on totals. (Before yesterday's bad run you would have been up 4.3 units on sides based on closing lines.) That's also assuming you were able to play the same unit size. He finished an even 31-31 on sides vs the closing line, so if you flat bet the plays 1 unit per and got the closing line you would have lost 3.1 units in juice. All his totals have been 1 unit so far this year. At this point I don't think you can really follow the totals at closing lines. The lines move too much on them and he hasn't been hitting them this year so far.

Fading RAS at the closing line wouldn't do you much better. On sides you'd be down 6.5 units or if you flat bet you'd be down the same 3.1 units of juice that you would have lost tailing with flat units at closing line. Fading the totals at the closing line you'd be up 1.9 units right now. I guess you could make an argument for tailing the sides and fading the totals but I don't like it. His totals are bound to heat up, there's a reason they move the lines so dramatically.

I don't have an axe to grind here. I'm not a RAS cheerleader or apologist and I'm not here to bash. These are just the hard #s. I know there are many times when you end up getting his lines or something worse than his release but better than the closing line etc. For exampe, I was able to get on Toledo at -1.5 last night for the win, but against the closing line that was a loss. It's obvious the books are no dummies and their line adjustments essentially turn a would be +14.4 unit set of picks into a -8.8 unit set of picks. I don't see a solid strategy either. If you only play the picks that you get at his lines you can get burned too. But anyway, love him or hate him, fade or follow, these are the #s.