2012-13 NFL picks

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 11:56 AM

TEN +4 (1.1U to win 1)
MIA +3 (1.25U to win 1)
CLE +3 (1.15U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 03:07 PM

PHI -170 (1.7U to win 1)
PHI -3 (1.25U to win 1)
SD -3 (1.1U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 03:14 PM

OAK +4.5 (2.3U to win 2)
DEN +3 (1.25U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 03:39 PM

PHI +3.5 live (1.1U to win 1)
PHI +160 live (1U to win 1.6)

**BigDofBA** · 09-23-12, 03:56 PM

Good luck with Philly. I think the Cardinals are a little better then people give them credit for, they are at home, and Philly has some injuries.

I hit my too dogs today with Minnesota and Tennessee. I'm done.

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 04:18 PM

Looks like I'm going to be wrong on all three late games.

That's what I get for cashing the Vikings and Titans and then going against the public at the end of the day (especially when the Saints lost and buried all teasers and ML parlays). You don't do that in a commie league like the NFL; public gets some back after losing their shirt to start the day.

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 06:35 PM

Ugly day.

NE +3 (3.45U to win 3)

**No coincidences** · 09-23-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Ugly day.

NE +3 (3.45U to win 3)

3 more units at -110 (Bovada)

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 12:16 AM

4-7, +2.45U today
20-18, +8.6U thread

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 11:45 AM

GB -169 (3.38U to win 2)

**BigBoi** · 09-24-12, 11:50 AM

No Coin, do you not believe the Pack cover?

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by BigBoi

No Coin, do you not believe the Pack cover?

I do, but after last night, I'm trigger shy.

**BigBoi** · 09-24-12, 11:57 AM

I hear ya. The way I see it, this game reminds me of last week versus da bears. Everyone hyping the hawks and forgetting about the Pack. I already took them -3' but may take ML too, just in case they dont cover.

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by BigBoi

I hear ya. The way I see it, this game reminds me of last week versus da bears. Everyone hyping the hawks and forgetting about the Pack. I already took them -3' but may take ML too, just in case they dont cover.

I was impressed by GB's defense against the Bears for a change. They actually looked competent.

**BigBoi** · 09-24-12, 01:18 PM

Thought the same thing. Also Jennings says he will play which give Rodgers his number 1 guy.

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 07:22 PM

SEA TT under 21.5 (1.1U to win 1)

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 11:28 PM

I can't bet on another NFL game under these circumstances.

I'll start this thread up again when order is restored. Until then, this league is a joke.

**ShogunRua** · 09-24-12, 11:39 PM

I had a feeling you would be on the wrong side of this.

You are off to a good start... Don't let it break your stride.

**No coincidences** · 09-24-12, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by ShogunRua

I had a feeling you would be on the wrong side of this.

You are off to a good start... Don't let it break your stride.

I can't cap incompetence, Shogun. No thanks.

**PAULYPOKER** · 09-25-12, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I can't bet on another NFL game under these circumstances.

I'll start this thread up again when order is restored. Until then, this league is a joke.

Leave it to coin,not to realize when his opportune moment has finally arrived...............

**No coincidences** · 09-25-12, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Leave it to coin,not to realize when his opportune moment has finally arrived...............

I don't even know what you mean by that. I've been doing great in this thread. I had a huge swing on the Packers ML where the game was literally taken away from them. What more do you want me to say? The game wasn't fixed -- it was literally decided by incompetent officials. Again, I can't cap that.

**suicidekings** · 09-25-12, 08:52 AM

I don't really know how to feel about this, moving forward. Obviously that loss hurt. A Packer win would have resulted in a subpar -4ish units for the weekend, but instead I hit a big -13u. Let's see what the league has to say this week about the ref situation before deciding action for the Week 4. Too early to back off I would say.

**No coincidences** · 09-25-12, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I don't really know how to feel about this, moving forward. Obviously that loss hurt. A Packer win would have resulted in a subpar -4ish units for the weekend, but instead I hit a big -13u. Let's see what the league has to say this week about the ref situation before deciding action for the Week 4. Too early to back off I would say.

I just can't make a decision or a wager on a game where I know shit like this can happen either way, yet have no idea when it's going to happen or how much of an impact it's going to have on the end result. I don't watch every NFL game, but the ones I have are proving enough to me that these guys are in way over the heads and really have no idea what they're doing. That's too much of a wild card for me to feel comfortable betting it or trying to cap it. I'll just stick to college in the meantime.

**PAULYPOKER** · 09-25-12, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I don't even know what you mean by that. I've been doing great in this thread. I had a huge swing on the Packers ML where the game was literally taken away from them. What more do you want me to say? The game wasn't fixed -- it was literally decided by incompetent officials. Again, I can't cap that.

I love underdogs and fading the public, but I can't take SEA tonight

Originally posted on 09/24/2012:

I know the Seahawks are off to a good start, they have a good D, it's a tough place to play, just killed Dallas at home, etc., etc. But I don't want Seattle at +3.5. I don't think I'd even want Seattle at +5.5. Looks like a really good spot to square up and take Green Bay.

Thoughts?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You love dogs,

the public hates dogs,

dogs are barking louder than ever,

and you want to put a muzzle on them?

**No coincidences** · 09-25-12, 09:10 AM

If you honestly think huge anti-public plays are going to keep cashing week after week Pauly....

The top five public plays lost Sunday. Green Bay was the superior team. Again, I don't know what more there is to say here. I was on the right side. Play lost because the refs are incompetent, not because of some conspiracy theory or because "Vegas gave the call."

**Dexter** · 09-25-12, 08:47 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

If you honestly think huge anti-public plays are going to keep cashing week after week Pauly....

The top five public plays lost Sunday. Green Bay was the superior team. Again, I don't know what more there is to say here. I was on the right side. Play lost because the refs are incompetent, not because of some conspiracy theory or because "Vegas gave the call."

bro - that was a terrible loss if you had GB but cmon with the "i was on the right side" comment. you got teased terribly, and the final call was wrong but its not as if sea got some backdoor late TD vs a prevent defense....

GB was covering 5 of the 60min.

**2daBank** · 09-25-12, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

bro - that was a terrible loss if you had GB but cmon with the "i was on the right side" comment. you got teased terribly, and the final call was wrong but its not as if sea got some backdoor late TD vs a prevent defense....

GB was covering 5 of the 60min.

9 sacks and gb vaunted offense that been out of sink all yr scored a whopping 12 points and half those were greatly aided by the very same incompetent refs...if there was a right side it was under, felt pretty sharp with sea/under tease as that was never in jeopardy (well save the phantom roughing call saving a pick, lol)..sure the ml was lucky but surely wasnt the wrong side at +160 ish...

nc the refs stink, we all know this but bottom line is even as bad as they have been ive seen them screw pretty much everyone at some point and plenty of teams overcome, so stop being so dramatic over a bad beat and focus on next week..i see plenty of gms worth talking about and whether it these refs that may not know all the rules or the old refs who made tons of bad calls as well it still NFL where from due to small difference between winning and losing there will always be gms where refs make calls that directly influence the outcome, take the shit with a grain of salt and move forward....

**No coincidences** · 09-25-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

bro - that was a terrible loss if you had GB but cmon with the "i was on the right side" comment. you got teased terribly, and the final call was wrong but its not as if sea got some backdoor late TD vs a prevent defense....

GB was covering 5 of the 60min.

The game was taken from the Packers. Period.

If the Packers weren't the right side last night, then a right side doesn't exist. I'd be saying that even if I had Seattle -- and I'd also not be making any more NFL bets until the real refs come back if I'd had Seattle. Like I said, you can't cap zebra incompetence.

**lunchbawks** · 09-25-12, 11:14 PM

apparently noone noticed the refs march GB down the field on their final drive

the refs were just abysmal on both sides.. period

**SavantWorldwide** · 09-25-12, 11:42 PM

Yeah those refs were equally horrible for both teams....

Thought you guys might be interested in this...I've been developing a team evaluation formula for the past year, it's based on 18 different team stats, adjust for home/away, all that good stuff. I use the match up rating differential to determine a predicted margin of victory. I tested it against every game in the NFL from 2003-2011, it was 73% SU and 66% ATS also predicted every SB winner. I went 10-5-1 ATS last week in my first round of "live testing"...Savant (name of my formula) is legit for sure...check it out my week 4 picks are up and are free...I know you aren't going to just start betting my picks at first, but track them and I will earn your trust without a doubt. http://pureprofootballpicks.wordpress.com/

Good luck with all your wagers!

**PAULYPOKER** · 09-26-12, 04:23 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The game was taken from the Packers. Period.

If the Packers weren't the right side last night, then a right side doesn't exist. I'd be saying that even if I had Seattle -- and I'd also not be making any more NFL bets until the real refs come back if I'd had Seattle. Like I said, you can't cap zebra incompetence.

The right side is the winning side period no exception or excuses,you can paint losing any color you want but it still spells losing............

**Dexter** · 09-26-12, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

The game was taken from the Packers. Period.

If the Packers weren't the right side last night, then a right side doesn't exist. I'd be saying that even if I had Seattle -- and I'd also not be making any more NFL bets until the real refs come back if I'd had Seattle. Like I said, you can't cap zebra incompetence.

The big bad packers put up 12 pts - Rodgers was sacked about 10 times. I can't understand how you feel the packers were the right side.

The right side nonsense is bs anyway IMO. When u have an under in hoops that goes to ot then I can listen to that.

**Dexter** · 09-26-12, 01:04 PM

And also. What the hell were you of all people doing on a huge public play on national tv vs a feisty team with a great home edge like sea? I was beyond shocked to see u on gb.

**p19101** · 09-26-12, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by lunchbawks

apparently noone noticed the refs march GB down the field on their final drive

the refs were just abysmal on both sides.. period

I agree, you see what you want to see. The facts are that the refs were just as questionable in the favor of the Packers earlier in this game.

**No coincidences** · 09-27-12, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

And also. What the hell were you of all people doing on a huge public play on national tv vs a feisty team with a great home edge like sea? I was beyond shocked to see u on gb.

I liked the low line given Seattle's rout of Dallas and Green Bay's early question marks. I had it capped at -5.

Again, this game should've ended 12-6. Not saying it went exactly as I thought it would -- though I did see the Packers struggling with the Seahawks' D -- but the cover was taken away by a horrific call. Not sure how you can say anything otherwise.

Anyway, looks like the real officials will be back this week, so I'll take a look at the games. I know they won't be in Baltimore tomorrow, but the Ravens are coming off an emotional win and they've played a lot in a short period of time. You'd be crazy to lay the points in this spot.