Banker throwin darts at the NFL (all season!)

suicidekings · 10-17-12, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

im assuming he will play,,just not sure after being out all year how much a impact he makes w/o being up to gm speed, obviously he will be huge emotional boost but is he really that much better than loften? i know ive heard there a big divide in staff/locker room over this.. even lets say he goes and plays well, can he mask all their issues?

I think worst case scenario, we're talking about more depth at LB, which is big. Even through their 0-4 start, they lost all four of those games by 1 possession, with teams wearing them out with the ground attack. Two weeks to tighten up the defense plus the possible addition of their defensive captain can make a big difference, and their offense is still so potent that the poor defensive ranking isn't as big of a detriment as it would be to other teams. A small gain could mean the difference between a win and a loss on a small spread.

jinxpro13 · 10-17-12, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Waiting to see if Vilma plays here. I think his presence on the field would be huge for the Saints defense, and from all reports he's been working hard in both his rehab and in familiarizing himself with Spagnuolo's system to be game-ready when he came off the PUP list. His first full practice is today, so we'll know more soon.

i truly believe the emotional boost won't last beyond tampa's first drive. vilma shouldn't affect your spread decision in my opinion. Spread is shrinking as well.

2daBank · 10-17-12, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I think worst case scenario, we're talking about more depth at LB, which is big. Even through their 0-4 start, they lost all four of those games by 1 possession, with teams wearing them out with the ground attack. Two weeks to tighten up the defense plus the possible addition of their defensive captain can make a big difference, and their offense is still so potent that the poor defensive ranking isn't as big of a detriment as it would be to other teams. A small gain could mean the difference between a win and a loss on a small spread.

right on,,,i will say again that i dont think spagnola is capable of tightening anything as the dude is a piss poor coach, i know he was "great" as nyg DC when they beat pats in the undefeated season but lets be real i could coordinate a d with the front 4 he was working with.. obviously when your offense is capable of putting up the points saints are defensive issues are less of a issue but a issue none the less as at some points you gotta get some stops in this league,,,this gm isnt real high on my list but i either take the dog or pass as i get the better d at home with a good enough offense and prob a little chip from being this teams whipping boys for so long...

suicidekings · 10-17-12, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

right on,,,i will say again that i dont think spagnola is capable of tightening anything as the dude is a piss poor coach, i know he was "great" as nyg DC when they beat pats in the undefeated season but lets be real i could coordinate a d with the front 4 he was working with.. obviously when your offense is capable of putting up the points saints are defensive issues are less of a issue but a issue none the less as at some points you gotta get some stops in this league,,,this gm isnt real high on my list but i either take the dog or pass as i get the better d at home with a good enough offense and prob a little chip from being this teams whipping boys for so long...

Agreed. It's well down the list on an otherwise pretty strong card. Historically, road faves of more than a FG coming off a bye are great bets, but with the line at -2.5, it's kind of pointing to TB.

jinxpro13 · 10-17-12, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Agreed. It's well down the list on an otherwise pretty strong card. Historically, road faves of more than a FG coming off a bye are great bets, but with the line at -2.5, it's kind of pointing to TB.

what's close to the top.. know u like those MLs but im talkin spreads if any this week.. same question for u bank..

2daBank · 10-17-12, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

what's close to the top.. know u like those MLs but im talkin spreads if any this week.. same question for u bank..

so far my fav 3 are skins/nyg ov, minny-6, and starting to take a real liking to the titans ml....rams and under teaser a real good possibility as well...

Smutbucket · 10-17-12, 03:57 PM

jeeez, spent a couple hrs away running some errands around town and now theres a bunch of stuff to discuss, im comin in late too, I LOVE IT!

new orleans/bucs
Bank, Im kinda on the fence about spagnola, he was a shitty ass head coach, but served 8 years under jim johnson, that has to count for something/think he learned some good shit for himself, think their shitty defense is more just athletic weaknesses, especially with weak offense of TB, (i hate freeman) think they could def spark with vilma back (fellow hurricane bias involved) also we got joe vitt coming back, if that counts for anything

nyg/wash
As far as Nyg/WASH over, thats first one that stuck out to me, Im gonna be on it for sure, love it,

car/dal
also love the over over in car/dal, I think carolina offense finnally get its going, hard to believe how terrible theyre performing this year, but I think this is perfect situation though for progression, if you compare last years offensive efficiency stats to this years offensive efficiency stats.

sf/sea
ya I agree with bank that Kap isnt gonna see much action, bringing kap in last week against NYG is what kept destroying their momentum,

arz/minn
agreed arz offenseline too terrible to bet on, im ranking them last now after last week, especially we got skelton coming back

havent looked at any games yet indepth except for thursday nights, although im gonna start tonight, and throw in any more games I really like,

groovybrandone · 10-17-12, 04:30 PM

got a really active thread this week. good notes/thoughts on these games so far

suicidekings · 10-17-12, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

what's close to the top.. know u like those MLs but im talkin spreads if any this week.. same question for u bank..

I've already played the Titans +3.5 & ML, Teaser: Seahawks +14 / Under 44.5, and Ravens +7. I also like the Vikings -6, Browns ML, Cowboys -2.5, Bears -6, and Giants -6.

Also, in college, I think Stanford and Florida are slam dunk right side winners. No doubt in my mind. Also, Nebraska is very interesting because if Pelini has made adjustments in their bye week for defending against mobile QBs, as he's stated was a major focus, it could set up a huge betting opportunity in the Huskers' upcoming game against Michigan where the line is sure to be slanted heavily to the Wolverines.

2daBank · 10-17-12, 07:12 PM

plays made so far...

skins/nyg ov 50 1x...like i said i dont know which way line will go but pretty comfortable here so i bet it..

min-6..1.5x...we talked about plenty and i see greek has it at -6.5 now and rather not play it any higher so it in....

in no rush on titans as that has a long way to move one way or other and not worried about number getting worse yet..

jinxpro13 · 10-17-12, 07:16 PM

am i reading something wrong or misinterpreting the public trend on thursday night's game? I keep reading people's posts and random site articles claiming the public is all over seattle , but im seeing 65% on san fran @thespread . com with most posters on sites all over SF..and it's been like that all week. am i just stoned? reading shitty posts and articles? what am i missing

2daBank · 10-17-12, 07:22 PM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

am i reading something wrong or misinterpreting the public trend on thursday night's game? I keep reading people's posts and random site articles claiming the public is all over seattle , but im seeing 65% on san fran @thespread . com with most posters on sites all over SF..and it's been like that all week. am i just stoned? reading shitty posts and articles? what am i missing

honestly bro i dont worry a whole lot about who is on what or trust those percentages a whole lot for that matter,,the place i do look says 63-37 in favor of sf but again that really dont mean much to me..

covers says 53-47 sea and i think that just there poll not betting percentages...

jinxpro13 · 10-17-12, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

honestly bro i dont worry a whole lot about who is on what or trust those percentages a whole lot for that matter,,the place i do look says 63-37 in favor of sf but again that really dont mean much to me..

i hear u bro i dont weigh very much on that stuff but i definitely look at it.. always like to know if im betting with or against vegas.. seems like people just make up who they think the public is on and say 'evryone is on insertteamhere' whatever.. i know what's up. the public is on san fran tomorrow.

Smutbucket · 10-17-12, 08:25 PM

i like to keep my brain innocent and free of that diseased information ;-) .......

suicidekings, Stanford has been sticking out to me all week, im gonna pound it, but florida I dont think I can pull the trigger on....love south carolina/steve spurrier/ (strange from a UM fan eh?) think ill just stay away from that game, or maybe the over honestly, I dunno why Im weird like that, I think both offenses will be able to move the ball for some strange reason even though these are some of the best defenses in the league, guarantee spurrier will come out throwing unlike last week, he even said at halftime "ive been calling awful plays, running the ball way too much", meanwhile I think florida/gilisee will be able to move the ball just like LSU did on them, plus totals gonna be real low, and id assume public would be on under, but you didnt hear that from me, i usually make fun of people who talk about "who they think public would be on" ;-) ha! im a hippocrit.

suicidekings · 10-17-12, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

i like to keep my brain innocent and free of that diseased information ;-) .......

suicidekings, Stanford has been sticking out to me all week, im gonna pound it, but florida I dont think I can pull the trigger on....love south carolina/steve spurrier/ (strange from a UM fan eh?) think ill just stay away from that game, or maybe the over honestly, I dunno why Im weird like that, I think both offenses will be able to move the ball for some strange reason even though these are some of the best defenses in the league, guarantee spurrier will come out throwing unlike last week, he even said at halftime "ive been calling awful plays, running the ball way too much", meanwhile I think florida/gilisee will be able to move the ball just like LSU did on them, plus totals gonna be real low, and id assume public would be on under, but you didnt hear that from me, i usually make fun of people who talk about "who they think public would be on" ;-) ha! im a hippocrit.

I haven't actually played Florida yet either as I was hoping SC would get a little love in the market. The fact that it hasn't dropped below a juiced -3 at Pinnacle is telling though. I've been on Florida vs TAMU/TEN/LSU and will back them against both SC and Georgia without a doubt. Worst case scenario I play it live and hope for an early score from SC on some aggressive playcalling, which would be a very Spurrier way to start the game.

The other college game I've played is a 6 point tease on Oregon -2 / Over 62. Almost forgot about it, being on a Thursday, but I love it.

2daBank · 10-17-12, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

i hear u bro i dont weigh very much on that stuff but i definitely look at it.. always like to know if im betting with or against vegas.. seems like people just make up who they think the public is on and say 'evryone is on insertteamhere' whatever.. i know what's up. the public is on san fran tomorrow.

i would really like to put to rest all this "public" "sharp" "square" wtf ever stuff in this thread, i mean to each is own but you me we are the public so sitting hear talking about who the "public" is on is basically meaningless..every time you make a wager you are against "vegas" dont get it twisted, vegas wins when we wager, whether we win or not irrelevant as they win on volume and vig, they dont care who you me or anyone else bets on as long as we betting...

dont misunderstand this jinxy, you my guy and i enjoy having you in the thread as your contributions are appreciated as you have plenty of good incite on gms,,,,i just rather shy away from this other stuff that really dont have much to do with capping a gm, honestly my plays tend to lean toward the less popular side more times than not but it really not intentional, and yea i get scared of some gms where it seems everyone loves the play, but i really think in the end the whole square/sharp/public/nonpublic would prob be 50/50 if you just faded the majority (rather call it the majority as again we are the public so it has always sounded weird to me when ppl talk about "the public")

2daBank · 10-18-12, 07:06 AM

i seriously am gonna stop being lazy and move some money out of dsi,,how can these assholes have every nfl 1st half line except tonight's fukkin gm? guess no biggie i be home in plenty of time to play the 1st half under for now a played a 7 point teaser...

sea+14
un44.5
ducks-1
ov61

tailing sk on the ncaa side, prob being to greedy as i hate teasing more than 2 teams but my degen side kicked in when i saw i could get 2 to 1 by adding the ncaa stuff,lol.....

groovybrandone · 10-18-12, 09:14 AM

hm maybe ill play that too. i like the ducks but wasnt sure theyll cover

jinxpro13 · 10-18-12, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

dont misunderstand this jinxy, you my guy and i enjoy having you in the thread as your contributions are appreciated as you have plenty of good incite on gms,,,,i just rather shy away from this other stuff that really dont have much to do with capping a gm, honestly my plays tend to lean toward the less popular side more times than not but it really not intentional, and yea i get scared of some gms where it seems everyone loves the play, but i really think in the end the whole square/sharp/public/nonpublic would prob be 50/50 if you just faded the majority (rather call it the majority as again we are the public so it has always sounded weird to me when ppl talk about "the public")

loud n clear brother. 'majority' instead of 'public'.. couldn't be more right on there.

dropped my bets for tonight's game.
sea +7
under 37.5

GL to us

really considering taking the SF moneyline as pussy'ish as that is..

edit: just added the SF ML parlayed with the 1st half under

bank im takin ur lead... im re-popping my o/u cherry this week.. hope it works it starting tonight. wish i was able to tease up 44 like you.. got stuck with the shitty 37.5

groovybrandone · 10-18-12, 11:28 AM

not nfl but:
oregon team total 1h is at 19.5, theyve only not hit that once this year. explosive fast paced offense. may be worth a look

2daBank · 10-18-12, 03:35 PM

well aint that a kick in the nuts,,,,get home and see sf is up to -9.5 (could have had 16.5 on the teaser

)

freaking dsi doesnt even have the smith prop,,,,,forgot i had some money in bovada since baseball season and they have the alex smith number at 220.5, told you it would drop jinx,,,,should i still pop it?

2daBank · 10-18-12, 03:40 PM

just keeping the 1st half unders at half a unit cause see no reason to go higher or lower some weeks opposed to others..

sea/sf un 19 1st half...

groovybrandone · 10-18-12, 03:46 PM

4409 Alex Smith passing yards over 217½ boo 5dimes

2daBank · 10-18-12, 04:30 PM

alex smith un 220.5 passing yards -115... .92 to .8......ya'll know how i roll, if this loses we just blame our guy jinxpro!! lol

2daBank · 10-18-12, 04:31 PM

friend called and told me he got extra ticket to the cardinal gm so ill be out shortly

GO CARDS

jinxpro13 · 10-18-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

alex smith un 220.5 passing yards -115... .92 to .8......ya'll know how i roll, if this loses we just blame our guy jinxpro!! lol

lol bank i told you id be comfortable with anything under 205.. ill b rootin for u....
also really like that under for the crabtree prop, but ill pass on that tonight. too much money elsewhere.

Originally posted by 2daBank

well aint that a kick in the nuts,,,,get home and see sf is up to -9.5 (could have had 16.5 on the teaser

)

freaking dsi doesnt even have the smith prop,,,,,forgot i had some money in bovada since baseball season and they have the alex smith number at 220.5, told you it would drop jinx,,,,should i still pop it?

tell me about it i got them at +7 like a f*ck

jinxpro13 · 10-18-12, 11:04 PM

feel stupid as shit for not waiting for that spread to jump up. could have been a HUUUUUUGE night. instead it was just huge. loving this f*cking thread bank..

groovybrandone · 10-18-12, 11:24 PM

nice tip on that prop jinx! cashing 1h under again

2daBank · 10-19-12, 02:52 AM

what a nice night that was,,lol..even hit the teaser

....not to mention cards beat down sf and are well on their way to the WS!!!..only rough part is i just got home and work is gonna be rough 2marro

jinxpro13 · 10-19-12, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

what a nice night that was,,lol..even hit the teaser

....not to mention cards beat down sf and are well on their way to the WS!!!..only rough part is i just got home and work is gonna be rough 2marro

love fridays off..
just dropped a super stoned GB ML, New England ML, Viking ML, BAL +13.5 bet

2daBank · 10-19-12, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

feel stupid as shit for not waiting for that spread to jump up. could have been a HUUUUUUGE night. instead it was just huge. loving this f*cking thread bank..

what can ya do bro? i mean who would have thought it steam like that? normally if it me in that spot if i really like the play i will add at the bigger number but hey when it either HUUUGE day or just huge aint nothing bad bout that !!!!

2daBank · 10-19-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

love fridays off..
just dropped a super stoned GB ML, New England ML, Viking ML, BAL +13.5 bet

my schedule pretty flexible but i kinda buried myself into having to get some work done, had no idea i was going to the cards gm or i woulda actually got done with shit yesterday instead of fukkin off....what did that pay?

jinxpro13 · 10-19-12, 03:04 AM

thought id bring up the gay oakland game. what you think of the raiders ML this week. i see some value there. jacksonville heading all the way out west. raiders were close as shit last week and definitely looked impressive. thought i wouldn't be touching this game , but gonna drop some coin on the ML. spread isn't worth it to me.

2daBank · 10-19-12, 03:18 AM

Originally posted by jinxpro13

thought id bring up the gay oakland game. what you think of the raiders ML this week. i see some value there. jacksonville heading all the way out west. raiders were close as shit last week and definitely looked impressive. thought i wouldn't be touching this game , but gonna drop some coin on the ML. spread isn't worth it to me.

keep in mind im pretty fukked up and snorted a dillotta so kinda faded also but i wouldnt touch that gm at all,,,,to me it another gm where the ml doesnt reflect the true chances of jax winning as it prob lot closer to 50/50,,,certainly dont think oak should be laying 2 to 1 no matter how terrible jags are....on another note i laughed so hard when they drafted gabbert in the top 10, they should have fired whole scouting department when they even suggested that shit, i watched that kid all thru his mizzou years and he was never anythng more than a checkdown machine, scared to take shots and incapable of reading a defense...

jinxpro13 · 10-19-12, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

keep in mind im pretty fukked up and snorted a dillotta so kinda faded also but i wouldnt touch that gm at all,,,,to me it another gm where the ml doesnt reflect the true chances of jax winning as it prob lot closer to 50/50,,,certainly dont think oak should be laying 2 to 1 no matter how terrible jags are....on another note i laughed so hard when they drafted gabbert in the top 10, they should have fired whole scouting department when they even suggested that shit, i watched that kid all thru his mizzou years and he was never anythng more than a checkdown machine, scared to take shots and incapable of reading a defense...

lolll you sound clear to me man. ive been fading gabbert since he got in the league he rarely lets me down. i guess jacksonville could have schemed something up during the bye and maybe/probably MJD will get his yards and TD.. i don't blame you for staying away.. clearly the shittiest game on the card. under looks goodto me tho. wouldn't be surprised to see 25+ rushing attempts per team.